Setting description

Taxane_CT less effective in the TP53+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 25.7, median = 21 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.66, hr = 1.72 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.035, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 26.1, median = 21.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.67, hr = 1.69 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.038, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 24.2, median = 19.7 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.62, hr = 1.86 af = 1, hr = 1



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 54 0 47
TP53- 14 31 13
TP53+ 301 0 272
HRD+ 57 1 40
TEfus+ 72 0 61
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.108 0.000 0.094
TP53- 0.028 0.062 0.026
TP53+ 0.602 0.000 0.544
HRD+ 0.114 0.002 0.080
TEfus+ 0.144 0.000 0.122
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 3 171 3
TP53- 152 163 186
TP53+ 3 414 11
HRD+ 16 126 55
TEfus+ 23 230 32
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.006 0.342 0.006
TP53- 0.304 0.326 0.372
TP53+ 0.006 0.828 0.022
HRD+ 0.032 0.252 0.110
TEfus+ 0.046 0.460 0.064
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 68 58 76
TP53+ 17 0 23
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.136 0.116 0.152
TP53+ 0.034 0.000 0.046
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.87.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.690     0.062     0.604

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 54 0 47
futility 0 3 171 3
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 690 (556, 764) 356 (195, 517) 239 (111, 354) 368 (223, 526)
n_unique 690 (556, 764) 356 (195, 517) 239 (111, 354) 368 (223, 526)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (53, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (21, 53) 31 (12, 53) 40 (22, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.92 (0.57, 1) 0.09 (0, 0.61) 0.94 (0.55, 1)
rate 0.024 (0.022, 0.026) 0.021 (0.02, 0.024) 0.028 (0.024, 0.035) 0.021 (0.02, 0.024)
TP53- graduation 0 14 31 13
futility 0 152 163 186
max_n 0 68 58 76
n 386 (323, 430) 188 (73, 302) 178 (59, 300) 182 (69, 302)
n_unique 386 (323, 430) 188 (73, 302) 178 (59, 300) 182 (69, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (24, 60) 60 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (18, 55) 31 (18, 52) 30 (18, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.07, 0.86) 0.46 (0.09, 0.88) 0.45 (0.08, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+ graduation 0 301 0 272
futility 0 3 414 11
max_n 0 17 0 23
n 310 (205, 353) 166 (75, 270) 52 (45, 72) 186 (98, 279)
n_unique 310 (205, 353) 166 (75, 270) 52 (45, 72) 186 (98, 279)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 50 (23, 60) 29 (18, 60) 55 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (22, 56) 26 (17, 43) 38 (26, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.99 (0.88, 1) 0 (0, 0) 0.99 (0.89, 1)
rate 0.028 (0.026, 0.032) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025) 0.053 (0.047, 0.062) 0.021 (0.018, 0.024)
HRD+ graduation 0 57 1 40
futility 0 16 126 55
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 186 (144, 216) 89 (45, 139) 63 (26, 103) 107 (60, 159)
n_unique 186 (144, 216) 89 (45, 139) 63 (26, 103) 107 (60, 159)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (47, 60) 60 (41, 60) 60 (37, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 42 (29, 56) 43 (33, 55) 35 (19, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.78 (0.28, 0.98) 0.24 (0.02, 0.78) 0.77 (0.29, 0.98)
rate 0.024 (0.021, 0.027) 0.021 (0.017, 0.026) 0.028 (0.021, 0.038) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TEfus+ graduation 0 72 0 61
futility 0 23 230 32
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 246 (184, 286) 126 (64, 198) 72 (42, 125) 141 (75, 201)
n_unique 246 (184, 286) 126 (64, 198) 72 (42, 125) 141 (75, 201)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (37, 60) 60 (26, 60) 60 (39, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (23, 54) 32 (23, 52) 38 (24, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.86 (0.37, 0.99) 0.13 (0, 0.66) 0.87 (0.43, 0.99)
rate 0.025 (0.022, 0.028) 0.022 (0.018, 0.025) 0.031 (0.025, 0.04) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 203 222 237
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 67 58 73
n 216 (175, 247) 93 (34, 195) 90 (27, 192) 90 (21, 191)
n_unique 216 (175, 247) 93 (34, 195) 90 (27, 192) 90 (21, 191)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.09, 0.84) 0.44 (0.09, 0.87) 0.47 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.019, 0.029) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029)
–+ graduation 0 256 322 285
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 66 57 71
n 60 (43, 74) 26 (11, 57) 22 (10, 59) 25 (8, 57)
n_unique 60 (43, 74) 26 (11, 57) 22 (10, 59) 25 (8, 57)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.11, 0.83) 0.45 (0.11, 0.84) 0.48 (0.12, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034)
-+- graduation 0 321 470 294
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 17 0 23
n 136 (84, 157) 72 (30, 133) 21 (14, 30) 76 (33, 127)
n_unique 136 (84, 157) 72 (30, 133) 21 (14, 30) 76 (33, 127)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.94 (0.58, 1) 0.01 (0, 0.1) 0.95 (0.58, 1)
rate 0.029 (0.025, 0.033) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.054 (0.044, 0.072) 0.021 (0.017, 0.026)
-++ graduation 0 358 479 331
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 17 0 23
n 96 (56, 119) 48 (20, 88) 17 (11, 25) 55 (22, 96)
n_unique 96 (56, 119) 48 (20, 88) 17 (11, 25) 55 (22, 96)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.9 (0.52, 0.99) 0.02 (0, 0.13) 0.9 (0.52, 1)
rate 0.029 (0.024, 0.034) 0.022 (0.017, 0.028) 0.054 (0.043, 0.074) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027)
+– graduation 0 255 277 271
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 66 56 70
n 56 (39, 70) 22 (8, 50) 22 (6, 48) 24 (12, 52)
n_unique 56 (39, 70) 22 (8, 50) 22 (6, 48) 24 (12, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.15, 0.85) 0.45 (0.14, 0.85) 0.46 (0.12, 0.82)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.023 (0.017, 0.032)
+-+ graduation 0 301 357 311
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 65 55 68
n 53 (35, 66) 22 (7, 46) 18 (5, 48) 25 (12, 51)
n_unique 53 (35, 66) 22 (7, 46) 18 (5, 48) 25 (12, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.13, 0.86) 0.5 (0.14, 0.86) 0.49 (0.12, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032)
++- graduation 0 343 478 339
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 17 0 23
n 39 (24, 51) 17 (6, 38) 7 (3, 14) 25 (12, 44)
n_unique 39 (24, 51) 17 (6, 38) 7 (3, 14) 25 (12, 44)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.78 (0.36, 0.97) 0.13 (0.02, 0.39) 0.81 (0.4, 0.98)
rate 0.029 (0.022, 0.038) 0.021 (0.013, 0.033) 0.056 (0.036, 0.1) 0.021 (0.015, 0.03)
+++ graduation 0 375 484 365
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 17 0 23
n 37 (22, 51) 18 (6, 39) 7 (3, 14) 22 (10, 43)
n_unique 37 (22, 51) 18 (6, 39) 7 (3, 14) 22 (10, 43)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.79 (0.36, 0.98) 0.13 (0.03, 0.41) 0.78 (0.36, 0.98)
rate 0.029 (0.022, 0.038) 0.022 (0.014, 0.033) 0.054 (0.036, 0.09) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 54 47
time_stop 30 (22, 54) 40 (25, 55)
n_trt 226 (156, 386) 291 (160, 433)
n_control 342 (230, 586) 454 (269, 647)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 1) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 3 (1, 4)
TP53- count 14 31 13
time_stop 42 (25, 51) 35 (22, 52) 42 (31, 53)
n_trt 140 (94, 207) 165 (80, 238) 174 (136, 220)
n_control 252 (146, 340) 227 (123, 310) 273 (191, 310)
post_p 0.97 (0.91, 0.98) 0.98 (0.93, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 1)
order 3 (1.3, 5) 1 (1, 3) 3 (1, 5.8)
TP53+ count 301 272
time_stop 36 (22, 56) 39 (27, 56)
n_trt 134 (70, 217) 150 (93, 239)
n_control 189 (105, 301) 202 (129, 310)
post_p 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3)
HRD+ count 57 1 40
time_stop 42 (30, 57) 25 (25, 25) 46 (34, 55)
n_trt 86 (54, 117) 50 (50, 50) 103 (74, 148)
n_control 132 (87, 186) 64 (64, 64) 137 (103, 185)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 1 (1, 1) 0.99 (0.93, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (2, 2) 2.5 (1, 4.1)
TEfus+ count 72 61
time_stop 37 (24, 55) 41 (30, 55)
n_trt 96 (62, 162) 114 (74, 175)
n_control 150 (94, 234) 174 (115, 231)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.99 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 3 171 3
time_stop 15 (13, 23) 31 (12, 53) 22 (21, 25)
n_trt 86 (62, 109) 146 (81, 252) 131 (125, 156)
n_control 152 (125, 253) 354 (134, 615) 219 (203, 251)
post_p 0.09 (0.05, 0.1) 0.01 (0, 0.1) 0.07 (0.03, 0.12)
order 1 (1, 2.6) 3 (1, 5) 3 (2.2, 3.8)
TP53- count 152 163 186
time_stop 30 (17, 55) 31 (17, 52) 30 (17, 48)
n_trt 90 (55, 238) 96 (52, 202) 98 (53, 192)
n_control 177 (94, 360) 185 (95, 341) 177 (94, 322)
post_p 0.15 (0.03, 0.26) 0.15 (0.04, 0.26) 0.16 (0.05, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 3 414 11
time_stop 22 (20, 24) 26 (17, 43) 21 (18, 41)
n_trt 53 (53, 62) 54 (50, 74) 55 (50, 100)
n_control 121 (89, 124) 128 (80, 242) 103 (84, 208)
post_p 0.22 (0.22, 0.23) 0.01 (0, 0.11) 0.15 (0.11, 0.26)
order 2 (1.2, 3.6) 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 4)
HRD+ count 16 126 55
time_stop 38 (30, 51) 43 (33, 55) 27 (17, 43)
n_trt 56 (50, 90) 62 (50, 86) 59 (50, 93)
n_control 114 (84, 174) 135 (102, 183) 80 (45, 145)
post_p 0.1 (0.04, 0.2) 0.08 (0.01, 0.24) 0.17 (0.07, 0.27)
order 3 (2, 5) 4 (2, 6) 2 (1, 4)
TEfus+ count 23 230 32
time_stop 36 (21, 46) 32 (23, 52) 26 (20, 43)
n_trt 64 (51, 112) 62 (51, 92) 70 (51, 109)
n_control 139 (86, 213) 133 (83, 219) 112 (78, 186)
post_p 0.13 (0.03, 0.22) 0.04 (0, 0.2) 0.16 (0.08, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 4) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1.1, 4.9)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54
time 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54) 30 (22, 54)
n 76 (36, 140) 20 (11, 36) 46 (21, 79) 31 (17, 64) 15 (8, 30) 14 (6, 29) 10 (5, 20) 10 (6, 22)
post_p 0.74 (0.58, 0.93) 0.66 (0.57, 0.87) 0.87 (0.66, 0.99) 0.83 (0.62, 0.97) 0.65 (0.57, 0.83) 0.63 (0.56, 0.76) 0.64 (0.57, 0.88) 0.65 (0.56, 0.88)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.02) 0.013 (0.008, 0.019) 0.017 (0.012, 0.023) 0.017 (0.009, 0.025) 0.013 (0, 0.018) 0.014 (0, 0.019) 0.018 (0, 0.028) 0.015 (0, 0.026)
PARPi count 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
time 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55) 40 (25, 55)
n 78 (23, 146) 23 (11, 46) 53 (20, 90) 38 (17, 63) 28 (15, 47) 27 (18, 41) 19 (11, 33) 19 (11, 36)
post_p 0.65 (0.56, 0.87) 0.68 (0.56, 0.9) 0.88 (0.62, 0.98) 0.84 (0.61, 0.98) 0.66 (0.57, 0.88) 0.69 (0.57, 0.86) 0.72 (0.57, 0.94) 0.82 (0.6, 0.95)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.019 (0.01, 0.025) 0.019 (0.014, 0.026) 0.017 (0.005, 0.023) 0.017 (0.008, 0.021) 0.02 (0.009, 0.028) 0.016 (0.011, 0.027)
TP53- ARSi count 14 14 14 14
time 42 (25, 51) 42 (25, 51) 42 (25, 51) 42 (25, 51)
n 91 (56, 121) 22 (15, 40) 12 (6, 29) 12 (6, 29)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.88) 0.75 (0.71, 0.93) 0.72 (0.63, 0.86) 0.75 (0.63, 0.86)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.019) 0.013 (0.008, 0.017) 0.012 (0, 0.017) 0.009 (0, 0.017)
Taxane_CT count 31 31 31 31
time 35 (22, 52) 35 (22, 52) 35 (22, 52) 35 (22, 52)
n 92 (43, 147) 26 (15, 48) 20 (9, 38) 22 (8, 40)
post_p 0.8 (0.72, 0.96) 0.77 (0.71, 0.94) 0.76 (0.65, 0.91) 0.75 (0.62, 0.87)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.022) 0.01 (0, 0.018) 0.012 (0, 0.017)
PARPi count 13 13 13 13
time 42 (31, 53) 42 (31, 53) 42 (31, 53) 42 (31, 53)
n 89 (52, 139) 25 (13, 51) 28 (14, 41) 27 (20, 35)
post_p 0.82 (0.7, 0.95) 0.77 (0.71, 0.86) 0.73 (0.71, 0.86) 0.83 (0.71, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0.014 (0.011, 0.017) 0.015 (0.009, 0.021) 0.014 (0.01, 0.018)
TP53+ ARSi count 301 301 301 301
time 36 (22, 56) 36 (22, 56) 36 (22, 56) 36 (22, 56)
n 59 (30, 103) 39 (20, 78) 14 (6, 31) 14 (6, 31)
post_p 0.88 (0.73, 0.99) 0.82 (0.72, 0.98) 0.74 (0.61, 0.94) 0.74 (0.62, 0.94)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.011, 0.023) 0.018 (0.009, 0.023) 0.014 (0, 0.023) 0.015 (0, 0.024)
PARPi count 272 272 272 272
time 39 (27, 56) 39 (27, 56) 39 (27, 56) 39 (27, 56)
n 60 (30, 110) 44 (23, 79) 21 (12, 39) 20 (10, 37)
post_p 0.9 (0.74, 0.99) 0.88 (0.72, 0.98) 0.78 (0.71, 0.94) 0.76 (0.7, 0.95)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.011, 0.023) 0.017 (0.01, 0.022) 0.017 (0.009, 0.023) 0.017 (0.009, 0.024)
HRD+ ARSi count 57 57 57 57
time 42 (30, 57) 42 (30, 57) 42 (30, 57) 42 (30, 57)
n 23 (15, 36) 25 (15, 38) 16 (8, 30) 17 (8, 29)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.92) 0.78 (0.71, 0.91) 0.8 (0.69, 0.95) 0.82 (0.71, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.005, 0.018) 0.013 (0.005, 0.017) 0.014 (0.006, 0.021) 0.016 (0.006, 0.023)
Taxane_CT count 1 1 1 1
time 25 (25, 25) 25 (25, 25) 25 (25, 25) 25 (25, 25)
n 14 (14, 14) 16 (16, 16) 7 (7, 7) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.84 (0.84, 0.84) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.62 (0.62, 0.62) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0 (0, 0) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008)
PARPi count 40 40 40 40
time 46 (34, 55) 46 (34, 55) 46 (34, 55) 46 (34, 55)
n 30 (15, 53) 30 (19, 48) 21 (12, 33) 22 (10, 38)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.9) 0.75 (0.71, 0.89) 0.83 (0.73, 0.98) 0.85 (0.71, 0.97)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.009, 0.02) 0.016 (0.009, 0.02) 0.019 (0.014, 0.024) 0.018 (0.009, 0.026)
TEfus+ ARSi count 72 72 72 72
time 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55)
n 28 (16, 48) 35 (18, 67) 18 (9, 32) 13 (6, 24)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.89) 0.88 (0.72, 0.97) 0.74 (0.67, 0.9) 0.77 (0.66, 0.95)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.004, 0.018) 0.018 (0.011, 0.023) 0.011 (0.005, 0.019) 0.013 (0, 0.022)
PARPi count 61 61 61 61
time 41 (30, 55) 41 (30, 55) 41 (30, 55) 41 (30, 55)
n 27 (13, 47) 43 (23, 65) 27 (16, 50) 20 (11, 38)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.89) 0.89 (0.74, 0.99) 0.77 (0.7, 0.91) 0.81 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.008, 0.019) 0.017 (0.011, 0.024) 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.016 (0.01, 0.024)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23) 15 (13, 23)
n 33 (24, 34) 8 (6, 8) 24 (14, 26) 3 (3, 17) 5 (5, 6) 4 (3, 6) 3 (1, 6) 5 (3, 9)
post_p 0.28 (0.26, 0.29) 0.37 (0.34, 0.38) 0.45 (0.4, 0.47) 0.3 (0.26, 0.46) 0.45 (0.4, 0.46) 0.45 (0.38, 0.49) 0.44 (0.41, 0.47) 0.46 (0.46, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.023, 0.032) 0.038 (0.03, 0.042) 0.025 (0.021, 0.036) 0.025 (0.005, 0.078) 0.034 (0.026, 0.051) 0.031 (0.006, 0.046) 0.032 (0.006, 0.154) 0.046 (0.025, 0.142)
Taxane_CT count 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171
time 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53) 31 (12, 53)
n 43 (20, 118) 15 (8, 30) 20 (13, 29) 17 (11, 26) 12 (3, 32) 10 (3, 28) 6 (2, 12) 6 (2, 12)
post_p 0.33 (0.11, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.04 (0, 0.33) 0.09 (0, 0.41) 0.42 (0.23, 0.49) 0.41 (0.22, 0.49) 0.31 (0.08, 0.47) 0.26 (0.07, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.024 (0.013, 0.037) 0.051 (0.034, 0.068) 0.049 (0.033, 0.066) 0.024 (0.014, 0.049) 0.023 (0.013, 0.049) 0.053 (0.028, 0.119) 0.053 (0.028, 0.099)
PARPi count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25) 22 (21, 25)
n 33 (12, 51) 11 (8, 21) 24 (23, 27) 11 (6, 25) 14 (13, 15) 14 (12, 16) 11 (8, 13) 14 (12, 19)
post_p 0.19 (0.19, 0.42) 0.43 (0.37, 0.48) 0.4 (0.28, 0.44) 0.31 (0.16, 0.35) 0.39 (0.33, 0.45) 0.41 (0.32, 0.43) 0.37 (0.36, 0.41) 0.39 (0.31, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.022, 0.042) 0.019 (0.019, 0.032) 0.031 (0.029, 0.031) 0.057 (0.041, 0.058) 0.022 (0.022, 0.024) 0.023 (0.02, 0.027) 0.037 (0.025, 0.038) 0.03 (0.024, 0.031)
TP53- ARSi count 152 152 152 152
time 30 (17, 55) 30 (17, 55) 30 (17, 55) 30 (17, 55)
n 46 (27, 135) 14 (8, 36) 12 (5, 35) 13 (5, 35)
post_p 0.3 (0.09, 0.46) 0.38 (0.09, 0.48) 0.42 (0.16, 0.49) 0.42 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.03) 0.025 (0.017, 0.045) 0.024 (0.016, 0.04) 0.024 (0.017, 0.051)
Taxane_CT count 163 163 163 163
time 31 (17, 52) 31 (17, 52) 31 (17, 52) 31 (17, 52)
n 47 (25, 127) 17 (10, 30) 13 (5, 32) 11 (5, 30)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.36 (0.13, 0.47) 0.41 (0.24, 0.49) 0.41 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.024 (0.016, 0.036) 0.024 (0.015, 0.048) 0.024 (0.016, 0.046)
PARPi count 186 186 186 186
time 30 (17, 48) 30 (17, 48) 30 (17, 48) 30 (17, 48)
n 42 (16, 114) 15 (6, 32) 16 (9, 36) 16 (10, 29)
post_p 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.41 (0.2, 0.49) 0.38 (0.14, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.031) 0.024 (0.016, 0.042) 0.023 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.015, 0.035)
TP53+ ARSi count 3 3 3 3
time 22 (20, 24) 22 (20, 24) 22 (20, 24) 22 (20, 24)
n 27 (25, 30) 11 (10, 18) 7 (5, 8) 9 (8, 10)
post_p 0.36 (0.29, 0.45) 0.48 (0.29, 0.48) 0.41 (0.38, 0.43) 0.46 (0.44, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.022, 0.03) 0.022 (0.022, 0.025) 0.032 (0.024, 0.068) 0.023 (0.021, 0.035)
Taxane_CT count 414 414 414 414
time 26 (17, 43) 26 (17, 43) 26 (17, 43) 26 (17, 43)
n 22 (15, 32) 18 (12, 26) 7 (4, 15) 7 (4, 15)
post_p 0.07 (0, 0.35) 0.1 (0.01, 0.39) 0.4 (0.11, 0.48) 0.41 (0.13, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.047 (0.03, 0.065) 0.046 (0.03, 0.067) 0.044 (0.025, 0.093) 0.043 (0.024, 0.086)
PARPi count 11 11 11 11
time 21 (18, 41) 21 (18, 41) 21 (18, 41) 21 (18, 41)
n 24 (13, 40) 14 (7, 28) 13 (7, 20) 12 (6, 17)
post_p 0.34 (0.09, 0.45) 0.38 (0.14, 0.48) 0.39 (0.33, 0.48) 0.46 (0.32, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.031 (0.02, 0.047) 0.03 (0.021, 0.058) 0.026 (0.019, 0.043) 0.028 (0.019, 0.037)
HRD+ ARSi count 16 16 16 16
time 38 (30, 51) 38 (30, 51) 38 (30, 51) 38 (30, 51)
n 15 (8, 28) 16 (8, 33) 10 (4, 21) 16 (4, 30)
post_p 0.31 (0.11, 0.48) 0.32 (0.17, 0.49) 0.4 (0.16, 0.46) 0.41 (0.32, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.031 (0.016, 0.037) 0.023 (0.021, 0.03) 0.034 (0.024, 0.049) 0.03 (0.023, 0.048)
Taxane_CT count 126 126 126 126
time 43 (33, 55) 43 (33, 55) 43 (33, 55) 43 (33, 55)
n 23 (11, 43) 20 (9, 38) 8 (4, 18) 8 (4, 15)
post_p 0.39 (0.14, 0.49) 0.4 (0.14, 0.49) 0.17 (0.04, 0.42) 0.16 (0.03, 0.41)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.036) 0.023 (0.017, 0.036) 0.051 (0.033, 0.083) 0.049 (0.033, 0.086)
PARPi count 55 55 55 55
time 27 (17, 43) 27 (17, 43) 27 (17, 43) 27 (17, 43)
n 15 (9, 26) 16 (10, 26) 15 (9, 24) 14 (7, 22)
post_p 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.4 (0.16, 0.47) 0.41 (0.2, 0.49) 0.41 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.013, 0.036) 0.023 (0.012, 0.036) 0.025 (0.015, 0.041) 0.03 (0.018, 0.039)
TEfus+ ARSi count 23 23 23 23
time 36 (21, 46) 36 (21, 46) 36 (21, 46) 36 (21, 46)
n 13 (9, 32) 27 (16, 55) 13 (8, 28) 9 (4, 23)
post_p 0.35 (0.1, 0.46) 0.4 (0.19, 0.48) 0.35 (0.19, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.02, 0.037) 0.027 (0.02, 0.04) 0.026 (0.019, 0.034) 0.038 (0.023, 0.088)
Taxane_CT count 230 230 230 230
time 32 (23, 52) 32 (23, 52) 32 (23, 52) 32 (23, 52)
n 20 (12, 36) 18 (12, 26) 16 (7, 33) 7 (4, 14)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.49) 0.04 (0, 0.26) 0.43 (0.22, 0.49) 0.28 (0.09, 0.47)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.05 (0.036, 0.072) 0.023 (0.016, 0.041) 0.047 (0.026, 0.087)
PARPi count 32 32 32 32
time 26 (20, 43) 26 (20, 43) 26 (20, 43) 26 (20, 43)
n 13 (7, 29) 23 (13, 47) 18 (10, 39) 12 (7, 20)
post_p 0.35 (0.14, 0.48) 0.41 (0.15, 0.46) 0.4 (0.2, 0.49) 0.38 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.026 (0.019, 0.044) 0.027 (0.022, 0.037) 0.024 (0.017, 0.03) 0.028 (0.02, 0.048)