Setting description

Several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures: (ARSi, TP53-); (Taxane_CT, TEfus+); (PARPi, HRD+)

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.023, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.025, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 43.8, median = 35.8 mean = 39.3, median = 32.1 mean = 37.4, median = 30.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.12, hr = 0.86 af = 1.01, hr = 0.99 af = 0.96, hr = 1.06
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.025, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 37.8, median = 30.9 mean = 37.7, median = 30.8
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.97, hr = 1.04 af = 0.96, hr = 1.05
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.025, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 41.3, median = 33.8 mean = 37.1, median = 30.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.06, hr = 0.93 af = 0.95, hr = 1.07
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.5, median = 36.4 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.14, hr = 0.84 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.023, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 41.2, median = 33.7 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39.9, median = 32.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.06, hr = 0.93 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.02, hr = 0.97



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 1 3 1
TP53- 175 1 0
TP53+ 0 49 11
HRD+ 2 5 231
TEfus+ 0 209 1
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.002 0.006 0.002
TP53- 0.350 0.002 0.000
TP53+ 0.000 0.098 0.022
HRD+ 0.004 0.010 0.462
TEfus+ 0.000 0.418 0.002
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 2 7 4
TP53- 3 155 101
TP53+ 367 14 17
HRD+ 46 23 2
TEfus+ 125 0 105
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.004 0.014 0.008
TP53- 0.006 0.310 0.202
TP53+ 0.734 0.028 0.034
HRD+ 0.092 0.046 0.004
TEfus+ 0.250 0.000 0.210
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 270 3 7
TP53+ 1 13 13
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.540 0.006 0.014
TP53+ 0.002 0.026 0.026
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.074.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.000     0.058     0.018

The overall power was 0.8.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.350     0.418     0.462

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 1 3 1
futility 0 2 7 4
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 728 (678, 768) 370 (292, 461) 329 (226, 426) 320 (221, 428)
n_unique 728 (678, 768) 370 (292, 461) 329 (226, 426) 320 (221, 428)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 11 (10, 40) 12 (7, 29) 25 (19, 28)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.93, 1) 0.88 (0.4, 0.99) 0.74 (0.19, 0.98)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.02) 0.015 (0.013, 0.017) 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.018 (0.016, 0.021)
TP53- graduation 0 175 1 0
futility 0 3 155 101
max_n 0 270 3 7
n 404 (364, 435) 301 (204, 306) 132 (59, 207) 143 (65, 224)
n_unique 404 (364, 435) 301 (204, 306) 132 (59, 207) 143 (65, 224)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (38, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (32, 56) 27 (18, 44) 22 (17, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.42 (0.05, 0.86) 0.54 (0.09, 0.93)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.011 (0.009, 0.012) 0.018 (0.015, 0.023) 0.017 (0.014, 0.021)
TP53+ graduation 0 0 49 11
futility 0 367 14 17
max_n 0 1 13 13
n 325 (289, 356) 82 (51, 171) 196 (122, 264) 176 (101, 256)
n_unique 325 (289, 356) 82 (51, 171) 196 (122, 264) 176 (101, 256)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 42 (24, 60) 60 (51, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (23, 53) 40 (18, 56) 28 (19, 47)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.07 (0, 0.36) 0.98 (0.75, 1) 0.83 (0.36, 0.99)
rate 0.022 (0.02, 0.024) 0.028 (0.024, 0.034) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02) 0.019 (0.016, 0.023)
HRD+ graduation 0 2 5 231
futility 0 46 23 2
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 187 (162, 209) 75 (53, 105) 81 (51, 116) 128 (89, 169)
n_unique 187 (162, 209) 75 (53, 105) 81 (51, 116) 128 (89, 169)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (38, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (35, 56) 42 (32, 56) 45 (35, 58)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.75 (0.23, 0.98) 0.7 (0.27, 0.95) 1 (0.97, 1)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.021) 0.015 (0.012, 0.02) 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 0 209 1
futility 0 125 0 105
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 258 (219, 286) 94 (55, 132) 170 (115, 229) 106 (57, 169)
n_unique 258 (219, 286) 94 (55, 132) 170 (115, 229) 106 (57, 169)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (34, 60) 60 (38, 60) 60 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (25, 54) 45 (33, 58) 28 (21, 47)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.06, 0.88) 1 (0.92, 1) 0.47 (0.06, 0.89)
rate 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012) 0.017 (0.013, 0.02)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 180 165 103
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 270 3 7
n 235 (205, 260) 200 (133, 231) 41 (20, 97) 46 (19, 113)
n_unique 235 (205, 260) 200 (133, 231) 41 (20, 97) 46 (19, 113)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.05 (0, 0.29) 0.05 (0, 0.28)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.029 (0.023, 0.038) 0.028 (0.022, 0.04)
–+ graduation 0 231 348 180
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 254 2 7
n 61 (46, 74) 34 (15, 54) 37 (15, 64) 17 (8, 40)
n_unique 61 (46, 74) 34 (15, 54) 37 (15, 64) 17 (8, 40)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.74 (0.27, 0.95) 0.77 (0.36, 0.97) 0.05 (0, 0.25)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.017) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017) 0.01 (0.007, 0.016) 0.028 (0.02, 0.043)
-+- graduation 0 370 71 30
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 13 13
n 141 (119, 160) 39 (14, 106) 61 (24, 130) 85 (23, 139)
n_unique 141 (119, 160) 39 (14, 106) 61 (24, 130) 85 (23, 139)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.34 (0.06, 0.79) 0.31 (0.05, 0.78) 0.32 (0.06, 0.83)
rate 0.025 (0.021, 0.029) 0.028 (0.023, 0.04) 0.028 (0.023, 0.037) 0.027 (0.021, 0.036)
-++ graduation 0 404 257 126
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 12 13
n 105 (84, 122) 19 (10, 42) 90 (46, 114) 24 (11, 69)
n_unique 105 (84, 122) 19 (10, 42) 90 (46, 114) 24 (11, 69)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.1 (0.01, 0.43) 0.99 (0.9, 1) 0.11 (0.01, 0.4)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.022) 0.03 (0.021, 0.043) 0.01 (0.008, 0.013) 0.028 (0.021, 0.04)
+– graduation 0 197 183 312
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 266 3 6
n 55 (42, 68) 28 (13, 44) 14 (7, 34) 38 (14, 59)
n_unique 55 (42, 68) 28 (13, 44) 14 (7, 34) 38 (14, 59)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.49, 0.99) 0.16 (0.03, 0.43) 0.94 (0.65, 1)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.024) 0.011 (0.006, 0.017) 0.028 (0.019, 0.048) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
+-+ graduation 0 239 363 376
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 250 2 6
n 51 (35, 65) 23 (10, 40) 22 (7, 43) 27 (13, 50)
n_unique 51 (35, 65) 23 (10, 40) 22 (7, 43) 27 (13, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.62 (0.2, 0.89) 0.67 (0.26, 0.93) 0.68 (0.26, 0.94)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.011 (0.006, 0.018) 0.01 (0.005, 0.018) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
++- graduation 0 378 94 254
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 13 9
n 42 (32, 53) 10 (5, 23) 15 (6, 31) 35 (18, 49)
n_unique 42 (32, 53) 10 (5, 23) 15 (6, 31) 35 (18, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.11, 0.74) 0.36 (0.09, 0.75) 0.99 (0.86, 1)
rate 0.025 (0.019, 0.032) 0.029 (0.017, 0.049) 0.028 (0.017, 0.046) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
+++ graduation 0 411 277 334
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 12 9
n 40 (29, 50) 10 (5, 20) 22 (8, 39) 27 (12, 43)
n_unique 40 (29, 50) 10 (5, 20) 22 (8, 39) 27 (12, 43)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.17 (0.03, 0.51) 0.86 (0.5, 0.98) 0.89 (0.58, 0.99)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.025) 0.029 (0.019, 0.052) 0.01 (0.005, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 1 3 1
time_stop 47 (47, 47) 29 (24, 29) 27 (27, 27)
n_trt 389 (389, 389) 230 (210, 232) 201 (201, 201)
n_control 527 (527, 527) 304 (264, 307) 257 (257, 257)
post_p 1 (1, 1) 0.99 (0.89, 1) 0.98 (0.98, 0.98)
order 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 175 1
time_stop 44 (32, 56) 44 (44, 44)
n_trt 247 (163, 304) 146 (146, 146)
n_control 286 (200, 381) 272 (272, 272)
post_p 1 (0.98, 1) 0.96 (0.96, 0.96)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1)
TP53+ count 49 11
time_stop 42 (32, 57) 40 (31, 48)
n_trt 162 (113, 220) 154 (96, 176)
n_control 225 (153, 299) 197 (143, 253)
post_p 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.99 (0.95, 1)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
HRD+ count 2 5 231
time_stop 50 (42, 58) 38 (26, 55) 45 (35, 58)
n_trt 68 (64, 72) 52 (51, 78) 119 (90, 159)
n_control 171 (137, 205) 124 (83, 170) 140 (101, 186)
post_p 0.96 (0.95, 0.98) 0.99 (0.92, 0.99) 1 (0.99, 1)
order 2.5 (2.1, 2.9) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 209 1
time_stop 45 (33, 58) 38 (38, 38)
n_trt 150 (112, 218) 82 (82, 82)
n_control 190 (133, 253) 135 (135, 135)
post_p 1 (0.98, 1) 1 (1, 1)
order 1 (1, 2.2) 1 (1, 1)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 2 7 4
time_stop 10 (10, 11) 9 (7, 19) 23 (18, 28)
n_trt 61 (58, 64) 62 (55, 97) 120 (94, 138)
n_control 113 (111, 115) 99 (80, 199) 233 (184, 296)
post_p 0.26 (0.23, 0.29) 0.18 (0.02, 0.24) 0.07 (0.03, 0.16)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1.4) 2 (1.3, 3.4)
TP53- count 3 155 101
time_stop 24 (20, 28) 27 (18, 44) 22 (17, 39)
n_trt 93 (73, 97) 67 (52, 106) 65 (51, 107)
n_control 157 (108, 167) 157 (100, 291) 127 (86, 235)
post_p 0.12 (0.09, 0.21) 0.1 (0.02, 0.26) 0.15 (0.05, 0.26)
order 1 (1, 1.8) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 367 14 17
time_stop 34 (23, 53) 18 (14, 29) 22 (18, 29)
n_trt 70 (51, 136) 60 (51, 84) 57 (52, 74)
n_control 172 (107, 287) 90 (57, 135) 104 (74, 151)
post_p 0.08 (0.01, 0.23) 0.16 (0.07, 0.29) 0.2 (0.11, 0.26)
order 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 2.4)
HRD+ count 46 23 2
time_stop 44 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56) 20 (18, 21)
n_trt 61 (50, 82) 58 (50, 84) 55 (53, 57)
n_control 132 (96, 175) 136 (95, 179) 52 (44, 60)
post_p 0.17 (0.04, 0.28) 0.12 (0.04, 0.24) 0.24 (0.19, 0.28)
order 3 (1, 4) 2 (1, 3.8) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TEfus+ count 125 105
time_stop 37 (25, 54) 28 (21, 47)
n_trt 66 (51, 108) 60 (50, 91)
n_control 148 (92, 244) 105 (75, 206)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.26) 0.16 (0.05, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47) 47 (47, 47)
n 162 (162, 162) 42 (42, 42) 58 (58, 58) 40 (40, 40) 18 (18, 18) 30 (30, 30) 19 (19, 19) 20 (20, 20)
post_p 0.98 (0.98, 0.98) 0.67 (0.67, 0.67) 0.77 (0.77, 0.77) 0.55 (0.55, 0.55) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.98 (0.98, 0.98) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56) 0.66 (0.66, 0.66)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0.026 (0.026, 0.026) 0.017 (0.017, 0.017) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.003 (0.003, 0.003) 0.017 (0.017, 0.017) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29) 29 (24, 29)
n 59 (53, 64) 25 (16, 31) 64 (50, 66) 39 (30, 48) 12 (11, 12) 11 (6, 14) 7 (6, 10) 14 (8, 18)
post_p 0.8 (0.64, 0.81) 0.77 (0.62, 0.88) 0.72 (0.69, 0.91) 0.68 (0.63, 0.86) 0.57 (0.56, 0.61) 0.58 (0.56, 0.64) 0.56 (0.56, 0.59) 0.56 (0.56, 0.64)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.012, 0.013) 0.005 (0.001, 0.009) 0.017 (0.016, 0.017) 0.009 (0.006, 0.009) 0.012 (0.012, 0.02) 0 (0, 0.005) 0.016 (0.015, 0.022) 0 (0, 0.008)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27)
n 50 (50, 50) 20 (20, 20) 42 (42, 42) 23 (23, 23) 15 (15, 15) 14 (14, 14) 16 (16, 16) 21 (21, 21)
post_p 0.92 (0.92, 0.92) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.79 (0.79, 0.79) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56) 0.68 (0.68, 0.68) 0.64 (0.64, 0.64) 0.67 (0.67, 0.67)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.005 (0.005, 0.005) 0.011 (0.011, 0.011) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007)
TP53- ARSi count 175 175 175 175
time 44 (32, 56) 44 (32, 56) 44 (32, 56) 44 (32, 56)
n 163 (105, 208) 33 (19, 51) 24 (13, 38) 24 (12, 38)
post_p 1 (0.91, 1) 0.79 (0.71, 0.93) 0.81 (0.72, 0.97) 0.74 (0.7, 0.85)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.008, 0.012) 0.008 (0.004, 0.012) 0.008 (0.002, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.01)
Taxane_CT count 1 1 1 1
time 44 (44, 44) 44 (44, 44) 44 (44, 44) 44 (44, 44)
n 46 (46, 46) 56 (56, 56) 7 (7, 7) 37 (37, 37)
post_p 0.78 (0.78, 0.78) 0.73 (0.73, 0.73) 0.63 (0.63, 0.63) 0.73 (0.73, 0.73)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006)
TP53+ count 49 49 49 49
time 42 (32, 57) 42 (32, 57) 42 (32, 57) 42 (32, 57)
n 64 (38, 109) 62 (39, 91) 14 (6, 24) 15 (8, 25)
post_p 0.78 (0.7, 0.91) 0.95 (0.83, 1) 0.72 (0.62, 0.85) 0.79 (0.66, 0.95)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.025) 0.01 (0.005, 0.013) 0.015 (0.007, 0.022) 0.008 (0, 0.014)
PARPi count 11 11 11 11
time 40 (31, 48) 40 (31, 48) 40 (31, 48) 40 (31, 48)
n 72 (29, 94) 28 (18, 48) 26 (16, 29) 24 (17, 27)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.86) 0.79 (0.7, 0.86) 0.92 (0.77, 0.98) 0.81 (0.71, 0.92)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.021) 0.014 (0.011, 0.017) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
HRD+ ARSi count 2 2 2 2
time 50 (42, 58) 50 (42, 58) 50 (42, 58) 50 (42, 58)
n 24 (14, 34) 25 (22, 28) 6 (4, 8) 12 (6, 19)
post_p 0.88 (0.83, 0.92) 0.75 (0.75, 0.75) 0.7 (0.63, 0.77) 0.78 (0.76, 0.8)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.007, 0.011) 0.008 (0.007, 0.009) 0.018 (0.015, 0.022) 0.01 (0.007, 0.012)
Taxane_CT count 5 5 5 5
time 38 (26, 55) 38 (26, 55) 38 (26, 55) 38 (26, 55)
n 11 (10, 19) 18 (10, 22) 13 (6, 20) 19 (11, 27)
post_p 0.71 (0.67, 0.84) 0.76 (0.64, 0.78) 0.79 (0.67, 0.83) 0.73 (0.67, 0.86)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.018) 0.004 (0, 0.005) 0.011 (0.008, 0.015) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013)
PARPi count 231 231 231 231
time 45 (35, 58) 45 (35, 58) 45 (35, 58) 45 (35, 58)
n 34 (20, 52) 29 (17, 48) 29 (18, 41) 26 (15, 38)
post_p 0.89 (0.73, 0.98) 0.75 (0.71, 0.92) 0.95 (0.74, 1) 0.82 (0.71, 0.97)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.007 (0.003, 0.011) 0.008 (0.004, 0.014) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013)
TEfus+ Taxane_CT count 209 209 209 209
time 45 (33, 58) 45 (33, 58) 45 (33, 58) 45 (33, 58)
n 37 (22, 55) 72 (46, 102) 23 (11, 41) 20 (9, 34)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.96) 0.97 (0.81, 1) 0.74 (0.7, 0.91) 0.8 (0.65, 0.97)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.004, 0.011) 0.009 (0.006, 0.013) 0.006 (0.002, 0.01) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1
time 38 (38, 38) 38 (38, 38) 38 (38, 38) 38 (38, 38)
n 13 (13, 13) 17 (17, 17) 27 (27, 27) 25 (25, 25)
post_p 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) 0.71 (0.71, 0.71) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.83 (0.83, 0.83)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006) 0.002 (0.002, 0.002)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11)
n 30 (25, 34) 6 (4, 9) 12 (10, 13) 6 (5, 6) 1 (0, 2) 2 (2, 3) 4 (4, 5) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.47 (0.45, 0.48) 0.44 (0.43, 0.44) 0.4 (0.39, 0.41) 0.45 (0.44, 0.46) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) 0.48 (0.47, 0.49) 0.48 (0.46, 0.49) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.01, 0.011) 0.032 (0.022, 0.042) 0.038 (0.033, 0.043) 0.045 (0.045, 0.046) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.061 (0.012, 0.11) NA (NA, NA)
Taxane_CT count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
time 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19) 9 (7, 19)
n 18 (10, 22) 9 (6, 15) 17 (14, 21) 14 (11, 21) 2 (1, 6) 1 (0, 5) 2 (0, 3) 2 (0, 6)
post_p 0.41 (0.13, 0.45) 0.47 (0.41, 0.49) 0.45 (0.25, 0.48) 0.48 (0.41, 0.5) 0.47 (0.43, 0.5) 0.48 (0.38, 0.49) 0.48 (0.47, 0.49) 0.48 (0.44, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.057) 0.021 (0.004, 0.028) 0.031 (0.02, 0.047) 0.012 (0.007, 0.023) 0 (0, 0.041) 0 (0, 0.046) 0 (0, 0.06) 0.009 (0, 0.054)
PARPi count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28) 23 (18, 28)
n 22 (19, 36) 9 (8, 12) 24 (18, 26) 16 (8, 23) 10 (10, 15) 14 (8, 16) 10 (8, 12) 8 (7, 10)
post_p 0.3 (0.13, 0.34) 0.43 (0.16, 0.48) 0.33 (0.24, 0.42) 0.3 (0.16, 0.44) 0.48 (0.43, 0.49) 0.45 (0.32, 0.47) 0.47 (0.37, 0.48) 0.43 (0.35, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.032) 0.024 (0.017, 0.039) 0.023 (0.02, 0.029) 0.039 (0.02, 0.084) 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.015 (0.009, 0.024) 0.018 (0.014, 0.024) 0.018 (0.016, 0.024)
TP53- ARSi count 3 3 3 3
time 24 (20, 28) 24 (20, 28) 24 (20, 28) 24 (20, 28)
n 42 (41, 49) 22 (15, 26) 9 (7, 10) 10 (5, 20)
post_p 0.42 (0.39, 0.45) 0.45 (0.32, 0.48) 0.45 (0.4, 0.45) 0.41 (0.36, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.016, 0.02) 0.012 (0.011, 0.024) 0.023 (0.015, 0.024) 0.015 (0.003, 0.023)
Taxane_CT count 155 155 155 155
time 27 (18, 44) 27 (18, 44) 27 (18, 44) 27 (18, 44)
n 29 (18, 47) 18 (12, 32) 10 (5, 16) 10 (5, 24)
post_p 0.17 (0.02, 0.38) 0.44 (0.29, 0.5) 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.45 (0.31, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.017, 0.037) 0.013 (0.009, 0.021) 0.028 (0.011, 0.049) 0.014 (0.007, 0.029)
PARPi count 101 101 101 101
time 22 (17, 39) 22 (17, 39) 22 (17, 39) 22 (17, 39)
n 24 (14, 52) 10 (6, 17) 15 (10, 25) 14 (9, 26)
post_p 0.21 (0.06, 0.41) 0.36 (0.13, 0.47) 0.46 (0.35, 0.49) 0.44 (0.31, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.025 (0.016, 0.04) 0.025 (0.013, 0.049) 0.014 (0.007, 0.021) 0.011 (0.007, 0.023)
TP53+ ARSi count 367 367 367 367
time 34 (23, 53) 34 (23, 53) 34 (23, 53) 34 (23, 53)
n 34 (15, 85) 18 (10, 33) 9 (5, 17) 9 (5, 17)
post_p 0.34 (0.09, 0.48) 0.22 (0.03, 0.45) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.36 (0.09, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.021, 0.039) 0.026 (0.018, 0.044) 0.028 (0.017, 0.049) 0.026 (0.015, 0.059)
Taxane_CT count 14 14 14 14
time 18 (14, 29) 18 (14, 29) 18 (14, 29) 18 (14, 29)
n 25 (21, 40) 22 (19, 32) 5 (3, 11) 6 (3, 9)
post_p 0.3 (0.12, 0.44) 0.45 (0.29, 0.49) 0.44 (0.3, 0.47) 0.47 (0.43, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.019, 0.034) 0.016 (0.012, 0.022) 0.03 (0.016, 0.097) 0.016 (0, 0.042)
PARPi count 17 17 17 17
time 22 (18, 29) 22 (18, 29) 22 (18, 29) 22 (18, 29)
n 22 (15, 30) 13 (9, 19) 11 (8, 16) 10 (8, 16)
post_p 0.35 (0.13, 0.43) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48) 0.47 (0.37, 0.48) 0.45 (0.36, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.027 (0.017, 0.036) 0.026 (0.014, 0.05) 0.014 (0.007, 0.026) 0.015 (0.009, 0.027)
HRD+ ARSi count 46 46 46 46
time 44 (34, 56) 44 (34, 56) 44 (34, 56) 44 (34, 56)
n 18 (9, 30) 21 (12, 35) 10 (5, 20) 11 (6, 19)
post_p 0.44 (0.22, 0.48) 0.4 (0.25, 0.49) 0.29 (0.11, 0.42) 0.23 (0.05, 0.42)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.027) 0.014 (0.01, 0.019) 0.031 (0.02, 0.049) 0.028 (0.016, 0.049)
Taxane_CT count 23 23 23 23
time 43 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56)
n 14 (9, 25) 18 (9, 43) 13 (8, 21) 10 (5, 21)
post_p 0.18 (0.04, 0.4) 0.38 (0.29, 0.48) 0.35 (0.14, 0.44) 0.41 (0.2, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.03 (0.018, 0.044) 0.012 (0.01, 0.02) 0.032 (0.023, 0.035) 0.023 (0.012, 0.038)
PARPi count 2 2 2 2
time 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21)
n 17 (16, 18) 16 (14, 18) 8 (7, 10) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.41 (0.38, 0.44) 0.44 (0.41, 0.47) 0.43 (0.38, 0.48) 0.44 (0.42, 0.47)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0.011, 0.023) 0.011 (0.006, 0.016) 0.027 (0.027, 0.027) 0.012 (0.008, 0.016)
TEfus+ ARSi count 125 125 125 125
time 37 (25, 54) 37 (25, 54) 37 (25, 54) 37 (25, 54)
n 21 (10, 40) 19 (10, 36) 14 (8, 34) 9 (4, 17)
post_p 0.41 (0.22, 0.49) 0.21 (0.03, 0.44) 0.44 (0.26, 0.49) 0.34 (0.07, 0.47)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.01, 0.024) 0.027 (0.018, 0.042) 0.013 (0.009, 0.024) 0.029 (0.016, 0.062)
PARPi count 105 105 105 105
time 28 (21, 47) 28 (21, 47) 28 (21, 47) 28 (21, 47)
n 11 (7, 22) 17 (10, 29) 20 (11, 32) 14 (9, 19)
post_p 0.27 (0.07, 0.46) 0.29 (0.06, 0.47) 0.44 (0.29, 0.49) 0.46 (0.33, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.026 (0.013, 0.043) 0.026 (0.015, 0.04) 0.012 (0.007, 0.018) 0.015 (0.009, 0.025)