Setting description

PARPi more effective in the HRD+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.6, median = 36.4
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.14, hr = 0.84
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.9, median = 36.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.15, hr = 0.84
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.3, median = 36.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.13, hr = 0.85
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.02, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 47, median = 38.4
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.2, hr = 0.79



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 3 1 90
TP53- 11 3 110
TP53+ 15 14 101
HRD+ 13 5 421
TEfus+ 10 9 97
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.006 0.002 0.180
TP53- 0.022 0.006 0.220
TP53+ 0.030 0.028 0.202
HRD+ 0.026 0.010 0.842
TEfus+ 0.020 0.018 0.194
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 43 63 3
TP53- 197 199 12
TP53+ 162 181 20
HRD+ 119 99 2
TEfus+ 152 169 11
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.086 0.126 0.006
TP53- 0.394 0.398 0.024
TP53+ 0.324 0.362 0.040
HRD+ 0.238 0.198 0.004
TEfus+ 0.304 0.338 0.022
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 66 65 77
TP53+ 8 14 5
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.132 0.130 0.154
TP53+ 0.016 0.028 0.010
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.18.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.094     0.056     0.046

The overall power was 0.842.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.000     0.000     0.842

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 3 1 90
futility 0 43 63 3
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 700 (616, 756) 339 (193, 499) 333 (163, 483) 348 (219, 477)
n_unique 700 (616, 756) 339 (193, 499) 333 (163, 483) 348 (219, 477)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (46, 60) 60 (39, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 40 (20, 53) 32 (9, 51) 37 (21, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.89) 0.45 (0.1, 0.88) 1 (0.93, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025) 0.017 (0.015, 0.018)
TP53- graduation 0 11 3 110
futility 0 197 199 12
max_n 0 66 65 77
n 385 (324, 424) 184 (64, 301) 172 (62, 301) 190 (105, 301)
n_unique 385 (324, 424) 184 (64, 301) 172 (62, 301) 190 (105, 301)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (35, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (16, 53) 29 (17, 51) 39 (23, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.09, 0.89) 0.44 (0.08, 0.86) 0.98 (0.79, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.016 (0.014, 0.019)
TP53+ graduation 0 15 14 101
futility 0 162 181 20
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 318 (272, 353) 156 (60, 257) 150 (56, 264) 143 (85, 226)
n_unique 318 (272, 353) 156 (60, 257) 150 (56, 264) 143 (85, 226)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (29, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (35, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (23, 54) 29 (16, 52) 38 (24, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.07, 0.89) 0.46 (0.1, 0.9) 0.96 (0.68, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02)
HRD+ graduation 0 13 5 421
futility 0 119 99 2
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 185 (138, 214) 80 (46, 135) 72 (38, 127) 106 (76, 152)
n_unique 185 (138, 214) 80 (46, 135) 72 (38, 127) 106 (76, 152)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (42, 60) 60 (44, 60) 42 (32, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (33, 55) 45 (33, 56) 40 (31, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.1, 0.88) 0.47 (0.11, 0.9) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 10 9 97
futility 0 152 169 11
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 252 (206, 282) 117 (52, 191) 117 (52, 193) 125 (81, 187)
n_unique 252 (206, 282) 117 (52, 191) 117 (52, 193) 125 (81, 187)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (39, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (25, 50) 32 (20, 54) 39 (27, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.86) 0.48 (0.09, 0.89) 0.98 (0.81, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.016 (0.013, 0.018)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 214 223 171
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 65 65 75
n 216 (180, 248) 91 (31, 197) 82 (27, 193) 90 (33, 188)
n_unique 216 (180, 248) 91 (31, 197) 82 (27, 193) 90 (33, 188)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.1, 0.86) 0.42 (0.09, 0.85) 0.48 (0.1, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.023) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.021 (0.018, 0.028)
–+ graduation 0 285 285 206
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 64 64 74
n 61 (45, 75) 26 (10, 60) 23 (10, 59) 27 (11, 56)
n_unique 61 (45, 75) 26 (10, 60) 23 (10, 59) 27 (11, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.14, 0.86) 0.45 (0.1, 0.88) 0.49 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033)
-+- graduation 0 190 212 172
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 139 (115, 161) 66 (20, 131) 56 (22, 133) 52 (18, 120)
n_unique 139 (115, 161) 66 (20, 131) 56 (22, 133) 52 (18, 120)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.1, 0.9) 0.45 (0.09, 0.88) 0.47 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 269 287 229
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 100 (75, 117) 40 (14, 94) 40 (16, 98) 40 (15, 88)
n_unique 100 (75, 117) 40 (14, 94) 40 (16, 98) 40 (15, 88)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.1, 0.86) 0.49 (0.1, 0.88) 0.5 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.021 (0.017, 0.03)
+– graduation 0 277 264 401
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 62 64 62
n 54 (38, 67) 20 (7, 46) 18 (6, 44) 30 (17, 50)
n_unique 54 (38, 67) 20 (7, 46) 18 (6, 44) 30 (17, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.13, 0.82) 0.43 (0.12, 0.83) 0.98 (0.81, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
+-+ graduation 0 319 315 410
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 61 63 62
n 52 (30, 66) 17 (6, 46) 17 (6, 45) 30 (18, 50)
n_unique 52 (30, 66) 17 (6, 46) 17 (6, 45) 30 (18, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.1, 0.82) 0.41 (0.1, 0.81) 0.98 (0.79, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
++- graduation 0 266 272 445
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 40 (26, 52) 17 (6, 36) 16 (4, 34) 22 (13, 36)
n_unique 40 (26, 52) 17 (6, 36) 16 (4, 34) 22 (13, 36)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.11, 0.83) 0.46 (0.12, 0.82) 0.94 (0.7, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.028) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
+++ graduation 0 322 332 456
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 39 (24, 49) 16 (6, 35) 14 (4, 34) 21 (12, 34)
n_unique 39 (24, 49) 16 (6, 35) 14 (4, 34) 21 (12, 34)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.12, 0.83) 0.43 (0.14, 0.82) 0.94 (0.71, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.013, 0.035) 0.022 (0.014, 0.039) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 3 1 90
time_stop 50 (33, 51) 52 (52, 52) 38 (21, 53)
n_trt 261 (225, 405) 462 (462, 462) 257 (159, 387)
n_control 553 (368, 578) 590 (590, 590) 404 (217, 634)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 1) 0.96 (0.96, 0.96) 1 (0.98, 1)
order 2 (1.2, 4.4) 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 4)
TP53- count 11 3 110
time_stop 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 50) 41 (26, 53)
n_trt 161 (122, 264) 174 (108, 189) 162 (105, 230)
n_control 224 (152, 344) 219 (196, 313) 243 (157, 338)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.97, 1) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 1 (1, 4) 2 (1.2, 4.4) 2 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 15 14 101
time_stop 41 (26, 56) 46 (34, 57) 41 (29, 54)
n_trt 135 (89, 198) 164 (124, 215) 132 (87, 194)
n_control 207 (120, 284) 242 (159, 295) 207 (141, 290)
post_p 0.97 (0.95, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 0.99) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 3.6) 2.5 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
HRD+ count 13 5 421
time_stop 45 (37, 58) 46 (37, 57) 40 (31, 52)
n_trt 70 (53, 104) 72 (71, 100) 104 (77, 140)
n_control 138 (106, 168) 135 (117, 191) 124 (92, 166)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 1) 0.99 (0.97, 1) 1 (0.99, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.4, 5.6) 1 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 10 9 97
time_stop 40 (29, 48) 47 (39, 55) 41 (29, 56)
n_trt 100 (60, 144) 156 (89, 183) 112 (75, 158)
n_control 160 (143, 187) 212 (135, 233) 168 (107, 230)
post_p 0.96 (0.92, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 1 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 43 63 3
time_stop 39 (20, 54) 31 (9, 50) 20 (15, 22)
n_trt 172 (97, 275) 150 (70, 249) 98 (83, 126)
n_control 428 (220, 594) 337 (102, 589) 210 (152, 233)
post_p 0.05 (0.01, 0.16) 0.09 (0.01, 0.23) 0.26 (0.14, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 1 (1, 1.8)
TP53- count 197 199 12
time_stop 29 (16, 53) 29 (17, 51) 20 (17, 25)
n_trt 89 (52, 196) 87 (55, 192) 66 (57, 77)
n_control 169 (88, 346) 171 (95, 326) 114 (96, 146)
post_p 0.16 (0.03, 0.27) 0.17 (0.04, 0.27) 0.22 (0.13, 0.29)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 162 181 20
time_stop 35 (23, 54) 27 (16, 50) 23 (18, 30)
n_trt 82 (52, 171) 73 (53, 139) 60 (51, 78)
n_control 174 (108, 284) 132 (76, 254) 105 (78, 153)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.25) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27) 0.19 (0.07, 0.28)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 3)
HRD+ count 119 99 2
time_stop 44 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55) 20 (18, 21)
n_trt 58 (50, 87) 55 (50, 87) 52 (51, 53)
n_control 140 (93, 183) 134 (96, 173) 62 (60, 64)
post_p 0.16 (0.05, 0.27) 0.16 (0.06, 0.26) 0.23 (0.22, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TEfus+ count 152 169 11
time_stop 36 (25, 50) 32 (20, 53) 26 (19, 32)
n_trt 64 (50, 125) 64 (51, 118) 60 (51, 112)
n_control 142 (92, 214) 124 (75, 218) 105 (73, 133)
post_p 0.13 (0.05, 0.25) 0.16 (0.04, 0.27) 0.18 (0.1, 0.26)
order 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 3)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51)
n 91 (57, 184) 25 (16, 39) 38 (28, 70) 33 (21, 72) 31 (17, 33) 17 (17, 22) 15 (9, 19) 11 (10, 16)
post_p 0.66 (0.6, 0.92) 0.63 (0.59, 0.71) 0.76 (0.72, 0.91) 0.68 (0.64, 0.82) 0.78 (0.61, 0.79) 0.66 (0.58, 0.78) 0.81 (0.77, 0.84) 0.63 (0.59, 0.77)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.022) 0.02 (0.019, 0.021) 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.02 (0.019, 0.02) 0.014 (0.014, 0.015) 0.012 (0.009, 0.021) 0.012 (0.012, 0.017) 0.007 (0.001, 0.015)
Taxane_CT count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52)
n 114 (114, 114) 37 (37, 37) 122 (122, 122) 69 (69, 69) 40 (40, 40) 33 (33, 33) 25 (25, 25) 22 (22, 22)
post_p 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) 0.84 (0.84, 0.84) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59) 0.79 (0.79, 0.79) 0.94 (0.94, 0.94) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.023, 0.023) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019) 0.02 (0.02, 0.02)
PARPi count 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
time 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53)
n 66 (35, 137) 20 (9, 45) 43 (18, 82) 34 (16, 55) 24 (15, 40) 25 (15, 38) 18 (10, 26) 18 (11, 26)
post_p 0.69 (0.58, 0.89) 0.64 (0.56, 0.82) 0.7 (0.56, 0.93) 0.7 (0.56, 0.9) 0.8 (0.6, 0.99) 0.8 (0.58, 0.99) 0.73 (0.57, 0.98) 0.73 (0.57, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.009, 0.02) 0.014 (0.006, 0.021) 0.015 (0.008, 0.02) 0.015 (0.006, 0.021) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.007 (0, 0.015) 0.008 (0, 0.014)
TP53- ARSi count 11 11 11 11
time 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 58)
n 101 (67, 130) 26 (16, 47) 14 (12, 38) 17 (14, 29)
post_p 0.77 (0.74, 0.92) 0.81 (0.75, 0.9) 0.81 (0.71, 0.86) 0.76 (0.7, 0.8)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.014, 0.021) 0.011 (0, 0.019) 0.011 (0.005, 0.016) 0.012 (0.004, 0.018)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3
time 40 (31, 50) 40 (31, 50) 40 (31, 50) 40 (31, 50)
n 74 (40, 99) 39 (25, 39) 21 (19, 37) 20 (18, 28)
post_p 0.8 (0.77, 0.93) 0.8 (0.77, 0.9) 0.82 (0.76, 0.94) 0.74 (0.73, 0.85)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.013, 0.019) 0.012 (0.009, 0.018) 0.009 (0.009, 0.012) 0.009 (0.002, 0.015)
PARPi count 110 110 110 110
time 41 (26, 53) 41 (26, 53) 41 (26, 53) 41 (26, 53)
n 78 (45, 132) 25 (10, 45) 26 (16, 40) 27 (17, 41)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.91) 0.77 (0.7, 0.91) 0.88 (0.72, 1) 0.86 (0.72, 0.99)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.019) 0.012 (0.005, 0.019) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014)
TP53+ ARSi count 15 15 15 15
time 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56)
n 61 (28, 77) 45 (32, 73) 14 (6, 29) 19 (10, 28)
post_p 0.77 (0.72, 0.92) 0.79 (0.75, 0.92) 0.72 (0.6, 0.87) 0.77 (0.64, 0.93)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.018) 0.015 (0.011, 0.018) 0.01 (0.002, 0.017) 0.011 (0, 0.016)
Taxane_CT count 14 14 14 14
time 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57)
n 68 (57, 107) 50 (35, 87) 20 (9, 26) 20 (14, 33)
post_p 0.85 (0.71, 0.94) 0.76 (0.72, 0.93) 0.76 (0.64, 0.88) 0.82 (0.74, 0.93)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.021) 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.009 (0.006, 0.015) 0.012 (0.007, 0.015)
PARPi count 101 101 101 101
time 41 (29, 54) 41 (29, 54) 41 (29, 54) 41 (29, 54)
n 53 (25, 86) 38 (23, 69) 21 (13, 31) 20 (12, 28)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.94) 0.8 (0.72, 0.93) 0.81 (0.7, 0.97) 0.83 (0.71, 0.98)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.015 (0.008, 0.019) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.008 (0.002, 0.013)
HRD+ ARSi count 13 13 13 13
time 45 (37, 58) 45 (37, 58) 45 (37, 58) 45 (37, 58)
n 18 (9, 30) 18 (6, 45) 20 (10, 27) 15 (8, 31)
post_p 0.8 (0.72, 0.95) 0.74 (0.65, 0.89) 0.81 (0.73, 0.91) 0.73 (0.64, 0.9)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.004, 0.016) 0.01 (0.005, 0.019) 0.011 (0.007, 0.019) 0.01 (0.008, 0.016)
Taxane_CT count 5 5 5 5
time 46 (37, 57) 46 (37, 57) 46 (37, 57) 46 (37, 57)
n 18 (9, 20) 15 (9, 29) 18 (11, 32) 30 (20, 32)
post_p 0.74 (0.66, 0.81) 0.81 (0.67, 0.85) 0.88 (0.74, 0.92) 0.83 (0.75, 0.91)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.015) 0.016 (0.012, 0.018) 0.01 (0.005, 0.013) 0.011 (0.006, 0.014)
PARPi count 421 421 421 421
time 40 (31, 52) 40 (31, 52) 40 (31, 52) 40 (31, 52)
n 29 (17, 44) 30 (18, 46) 22 (14, 34) 21 (13, 32)
post_p 0.88 (0.72, 0.99) 0.87 (0.73, 1) 0.8 (0.71, 0.97) 0.79 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.009 (0.003, 0.014)
TEfus+ ARSi count 10 10 10 10
time 40 (29, 48) 40 (29, 48) 40 (29, 48) 40 (29, 48)
n 26 (14, 50) 39 (27, 71) 15 (8, 24) 16 (10, 29)
post_p 0.77 (0.73, 0.84) 0.79 (0.73, 0.89) 0.73 (0.62, 0.82) 0.76 (0.66, 0.87)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.017) 0.014 (0.005, 0.017) 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) 0.009 (0, 0.015)
Taxane_CT count 9 9 9 9
time 47 (39, 55) 47 (39, 55) 47 (39, 55) 47 (39, 55)
n 29 (9, 45) 75 (50, 89) 29 (8, 39) 16 (7, 23)
post_p 0.87 (0.69, 0.96) 0.83 (0.72, 0.96) 0.72 (0.69, 0.83) 0.72 (0.65, 0.88)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.021) 0.017 (0.012, 0.019) 0.013 (0.011, 0.016) 0.011 (0.009, 0.016)
PARPi count 97 97 97 97
time 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56)
n 24 (12, 44) 38 (23, 65) 27 (18, 39) 20 (13, 29)
post_p 0.75 (0.71, 0.9) 0.79 (0.71, 0.93) 0.88 (0.73, 0.99) 0.82 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.008, 0.019) 0.014 (0.009, 0.02) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.009 (0.002, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
time 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54)
n 44 (25, 113) 14 (8, 35) 30 (13, 69) 23 (8, 49) 8 (4, 21) 8 (4, 22) 10 (4, 17) 8 (5, 19)
post_p 0.28 (0.09, 0.48) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.33 (0.1, 0.49) 0.31 (0.06, 0.46) 0.4 (0.08, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.42 (0.24, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.019, 0.028) 0.022 (0.016, 0.039) 0.023 (0.017, 0.032) 0.025 (0.018, 0.039) 0.027 (0.019, 0.068) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.017, 0.037) 0.024 (0.014, 0.039)
Taxane_CT count 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
time 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50)
n 34 (16, 98) 15 (7, 26) 25 (15, 62) 20 (12, 41) 9 (3, 21) 9 (2, 18) 7 (1, 14) 6 (1, 14)
post_p 0.39 (0.08, 0.47) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.38 (0.08, 0.48) 0.34 (0.08, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.43 (0.21, 0.49) 0.41 (0.21, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.023 (0.015, 0.041) 0.023 (0.016, 0.031) 0.025 (0.016, 0.033) 0.026 (0, 0.046) 0.021 (0, 0.039) 0.022 (0, 0.05) 0.022 (0, 0.052)
PARPi count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22)
n 19 (16, 25) 3 (2, 12) 14 (13, 20) 9 (9, 18) 12 (9, 12) 18 (12, 21) 11 (10, 13) 9 (6, 13)
post_p 0.31 (0.15, 0.45) 0.47 (0.45, 0.48) 0.43 (0.43, 0.48) 0.47 (0.21, 0.48) 0.47 (0.42, 0.48) 0.48 (0.38, 0.49) 0.48 (0.47, 0.49) 0.4 (0.35, 0.43)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.036 (0.022, 0.041) 0.019 (0.004, 0.044) 0.015 (0.012, 0.025) 0.018 (0.017, 0.052) 0.01 (0.002, 0.019) 0.008 (0.005, 0.011) 0.01 (0.008, 0.017) 0.023 (0.021, 0.025)
TP53- ARSi count 197 197 197 197
time 29 (16, 53) 29 (16, 53) 29 (16, 53) 29 (16, 53)
n 47 (27, 119) 14 (8, 42) 11 (5, 27) 10 (5, 26)
post_p 0.31 (0.08, 0.47) 0.41 (0.16, 0.48) 0.42 (0.2, 0.48) 0.42 (0.19, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.015, 0.039) 0.024 (0.015, 0.062) 0.023 (0.013, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 199 199 199 199
time 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51)
n 47 (24, 130) 16 (9, 34) 11 (6, 22) 10 (6, 22)
post_p 0.32 (0.08, 0.47) 0.38 (0.12, 0.48) 0.42 (0.22, 0.49) 0.43 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.028) 0.023 (0.014, 0.037) 0.022 (0.013, 0.041) 0.022 (0.013, 0.044)
PARPi count 12 12 12 12
time 20 (17, 25) 20 (17, 25) 20 (17, 25) 20 (17, 25)
n 26 (19, 45) 12 (7, 15) 12 (8, 19) 12 (10, 20)
post_p 0.39 (0.15, 0.47) 0.46 (0.43, 0.48) 0.41 (0.34, 0.48) 0.41 (0.28, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.03) 0.023 (0.011, 0.029) 0.017 (0.011, 0.025) 0.017 (0.008, 0.029)
TP53+ ARSi count 162 162 162 162
time 35 (23, 54) 35 (23, 54) 35 (23, 54) 35 (23, 54)
n 32 (15, 91) 22 (12, 53) 10 (5, 23) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.35 (0.11, 0.47) 0.33 (0.09, 0.47) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.41 (0.18, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.023 (0.017, 0.037) 0.023 (0.016, 0.041) 0.023 (0.015, 0.039)
Taxane_CT count 181 181 181 181
time 27 (16, 50) 27 (16, 50) 27 (16, 50) 27 (16, 50)
n 31 (20, 66) 24 (15, 50) 8 (3, 18) 7 (4, 17)
post_p 0.35 (0.08, 0.47) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48) 0.43 (0.26, 0.49) 0.43 (0.26, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.024 (0.01, 0.06) 0.024 (0.014, 0.053)
PARPi count 20 20 20 20
time 23 (18, 30) 23 (18, 30) 23 (18, 30) 23 (18, 30)
n 20 (12, 36) 15 (10, 25) 13 (8, 16) 11 (7, 16)
post_p 0.34 (0.05, 0.47) 0.39 (0.12, 0.48) 0.45 (0.31, 0.49) 0.45 (0.37, 0.5)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.014, 0.041) 0.024 (0.016, 0.047) 0.018 (0.01, 0.034) 0.018 (0.008, 0.026)
HRD+ ARSi count 119 119 119 119
time 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55)
n 17 (7, 33) 14 (7, 28) 15 (7, 29) 13 (6, 27)
post_p 0.33 (0.14, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.38 (0.15, 0.47) 0.36 (0.14, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.04) 0.024 (0.018, 0.037) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035)
Taxane_CT count 99 99 99 99
time 45 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55)
n 17 (7, 32) 15 (8, 29) 11 (6, 25) 12 (5, 29)
post_p 0.33 (0.12, 0.48) 0.33 (0.13, 0.47) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.038) 0.023 (0.016, 0.046) 0.024 (0.017, 0.046)
PARPi count 2 2 2 2
time 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21)
n 14 (13, 16) 16 (14, 18) 12 (10, 13) 10 (7, 13)
post_p 0.43 (0.42, 0.43) 0.47 (0.46, 0.48) 0.43 (0.4, 0.46) 0.4 (0.36, 0.44)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.018) 0.014 (0.008, 0.02) 0.02 (0.015, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.027)
TEfus+ ARSi count 152 152 152 152
time 36 (25, 50) 36 (25, 50) 36 (25, 50) 36 (25, 50)
n 17 (8, 40) 25 (12, 55) 11 (6, 26) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.49) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.017, 0.034) 0.023 (0.017, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.023 (0.014, 0.037)
Taxane_CT count 169 169 169 169
time 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53)
n 17 (11, 31) 26 (16, 51) 11 (6, 27) 8 (5, 21)
post_p 0.36 (0.16, 0.48) 0.34 (0.09, 0.48) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49) 0.39 (0.22, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.014, 0.034) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.022 (0.013, 0.038) 0.025 (0.014, 0.05)
PARPi count 11 11 11 11
time 26 (19, 32) 26 (19, 32) 26 (19, 32) 26 (19, 32)
n 12 (9, 15) 19 (12, 50) 20 (16, 24) 15 (7, 27)
post_p 0.38 (0.2, 0.47) 0.42 (0.16, 0.48) 0.39 (0.29, 0.47) 0.44 (0.28, 0.5)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.033 (0.015, 0.047) 0.021 (0.018, 0.04) 0.015 (0.009, 0.027) 0.013 (0.011, 0.029)