Setting description

Taxane_CT more effective in the TEfus+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.02, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 46.3, median = 37.8 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.19, hr = 0.8 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.9, median = 36.7 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.15, hr = 0.83 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 48.1, median = 39.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.23, hr = 0.76 af = 1, hr = 1
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 1 76 1
TP53- 4 87 1
TP53+ 2 82 2
HRD+ 6 63 1
TEfus+ 2 359 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.002 0.152 0.002
TP53- 0.008 0.174 0.002
TP53+ 0.004 0.164 0.004
HRD+ 0.012 0.126 0.002
TEfus+ 0.004 0.718 0.000
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 72 4 111
TP53- 238 21 269
TP53+ 212 22 252
HRD+ 126 11 247
TEfus+ 301 0 343
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.144 0.008 0.222
TP53- 0.476 0.042 0.538
TP53+ 0.424 0.044 0.504
HRD+ 0.252 0.022 0.494
TEfus+ 0.602 0.000 0.686
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 45 81 36
TP53+ 0 15 3
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.00 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.09 0.162 0.072
TP53+ 0.00 0.030 0.006
HRD+ 0.00 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.00 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.108.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.030     0.074     0.008

The overall power was 0.718.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.000     0.718     0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 1 76 1
futility 0 72 4 111
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 678 (579, 747) 315 (171, 472) 380 (247, 520) 276 (143, 437)
n_unique 678 (579, 747) 315 (171, 472) 380 (247, 520) 276 (143, 437)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (50, 60) 60 (40, 60) 60 (34, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 42 (26, 56) 36 (22, 51) 36 (19, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.17 (0.02, 0.63) 0.98 (0.8, 1) 0.18 (0.02, 0.66)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.021) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53- graduation 0 4 87 1
futility 0 238 21 269
max_n 0 45 81 36
n 375 (319, 416) 169 (65, 297) 200 (110, 302) 150 (58, 284)
n_unique 375 (319, 416) 169 (65, 297) 200 (110, 302) 150 (58, 284)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (40, 60) 51 (19, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (17, 53) 41 (24, 56) 29 (16, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.04, 0.74) 0.91 (0.56, 0.99) 0.27 (0.03, 0.7)
rate 0.02 (0.018, 0.021) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.017 (0.014, 0.019) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TP53+ graduation 0 2 82 2
futility 0 212 22 252
max_n 0 0 15 3
n 304 (250, 344) 132 (60, 232) 170 (97, 259) 124 (53, 206)
n_unique 304 (250, 344) 132 (60, 232) 170 (97, 259) 124 (53, 206)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (37, 60) 58 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (23, 55) 38 (21, 53) 31 (20, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.22 (0.04, 0.68) 0.96 (0.67, 1) 0.24 (0.02, 0.71)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.021) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.015 (0.013, 0.018) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026)
HRD+ graduation 0 6 63 1
futility 0 126 11 247
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 183 (143, 212) 82 (47, 133) 98 (57, 139) 72 (50, 127)
n_unique 183 (143, 212) 82 (47, 133) 98 (57, 139) 72 (50, 127)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (43, 60) 60 (47, 60) 60 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 45 (34, 57) 42 (32, 58) 29 (20, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.03, 0.71) 0.89 (0.52, 0.99) 0.25 (0.03, 0.64)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.015 (0.012, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 2 359 0
futility 0 301 0 343
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 236 (153, 282) 88 (50, 159) 146 (90, 230) 72 (50, 145)
n_unique 236 (153, 282) 88 (50, 159) 146 (90, 230) 72 (50, 145)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 49 (28, 60) 46 (31, 60) 43 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (26, 53) 40 (30, 56) 32 (21, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.09 (0.01, 0.44) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.09 (0, 0.46)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 244 152 280
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 45 80 36
n 216 (177, 245) 89 (32, 195) 99 (34, 189) 80 (21, 187)
n_unique 216 (177, 245) 89 (32, 195) 99 (34, 189) 80 (21, 187)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.09, 0.87) 0.52 (0.1, 0.86) 0.43 (0.1, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029)
–+ graduation 0 369 362 400
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 42 69 32
n 55 (35, 72) 19 (8, 48) 36 (20, 61) 15 (7, 45)
n_unique 55 (35, 72) 19 (8, 48) 36 (20, 61) 15 (7, 45)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.24 (0.05, 0.62) 0.91 (0.6, 0.99) 0.26 (0.05, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.011 (0.007, 0.015) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)
-+- graduation 0 220 148 275
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 15 3
n 137 (110, 158) 59 (19, 126) 60 (24, 126) 54 (17, 122)
n_unique 137 (110, 158) 59 (19, 126) 60 (24, 126) 54 (17, 122)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.12, 0.88) 0.49 (0.1, 0.86) 0.51 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03)
-++ graduation 0 378 396 428
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 14 3
n 93 (54, 115) 26 (12, 69) 61 (32, 106) 20 (11, 62)
n_unique 93 (54, 115) 26 (12, 69) 61 (32, 106) 20 (11, 62)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.2 (0.03, 0.59) 0.97 (0.74, 1) 0.21 (0.03, 0.64)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)
+– graduation 0 288 187 365
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 44 79 36
n 56 (39, 69) 24 (7, 52) 26 (10, 50) 19 (11, 49)
n_unique 56 (39, 69) 24 (7, 52) 26 (10, 50) 19 (11, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.13, 0.88) 0.49 (0.13, 0.84) 0.47 (0.13, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.021 (0.015, 0.032) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032)
+-+ graduation 0 389 372 432
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 42 68 32
n 48 (29, 65) 17 (7, 44) 26 (12, 49) 16 (10, 39)
n_unique 48 (29, 65) 17 (7, 44) 26 (12, 49) 16 (10, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.3 (0.06, 0.68) 0.9 (0.59, 0.99) 0.23 (0.04, 0.61)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.024 (0.016, 0.034)
++- graduation 0 274 181 359
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 14 3
n 42 (32, 52) 20 (6, 38) 19 (7, 39) 15 (8, 39)
n_unique 42 (32, 52) 20 (6, 38) 19 (7, 39) 15 (8, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.13, 0.84) 0.48 (0.14, 0.82) 0.45 (0.14, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035)
+++ graduation 0 403 403 452
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 13 3
n 36 (22, 49) 14 (6, 33) 19 (8, 37) 14 (8, 30)
n_unique 36 (22, 49) 14 (6, 33) 19 (8, 37) 14 (8, 30)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.07, 0.68) 0.84 (0.54, 0.98) 0.28 (0.06, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.023) 0.023 (0.014, 0.038) 0.01 (0.005, 0.017) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 1 76 1
time_stop 29 (29, 29) 36 (24, 52) 34 (34, 34)
n_trt 222 (222, 222) 270 (188, 388) 262 (262, 262)
n_control 328 (328, 328) 400 (256, 586) 369 (369, 369)
post_p 0.94 (0.94, 0.94) 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.99 (0.99, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 3) 2 (2, 2)
TP53- count 4 87 1
time_stop 48 (36, 48) 43 (30, 57) 32 (32, 32)
n_trt 198 (158, 271) 177 (108, 278) 177 (177, 177)
n_control 298 (226, 325) 263 (179, 356) 198 (198, 198)
post_p 0.94 (0.89, 0.98) 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.96, 0.96)
order 2 (2, 3.4) 2 (1, 3.4) 1 (1, 1)
TP53+ count 2 82 2
time_stop 28 (24, 33) 41 (31, 53) 44 (38, 50)
n_trt 97 (86, 108) 142 (100, 201) 144 (135, 152)
n_control 130 (117, 143) 200 (143, 287) 222 (176, 268)
post_p 0.95 (0.92, 0.98) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.98 (0.98, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 1) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.2, 2.8)
HRD+ count 6 63 1
time_stop 38 (30, 48) 44 (32, 58) 51 (51, 51)
n_trt 66 (54, 102) 78 (58, 117) 131 (131, 131)
n_control 120 (90, 152) 125 (94, 173) 166 (166, 166)
post_p 0.98 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.97 (0.97, 0.97)
order 1 (1, 2.5) 2 (1, 4) 2 (2, 2)
TEfus+ count 2 359
time_stop 38 (28, 47) 40 (30, 56)
n_trt 99 (85, 113) 134 (89, 199)
n_control 154 (106, 201) 167 (114, 240)
post_p 0.93 (0.89, 0.96) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 1.5 (1.1, 1.9) 1 (1, 2)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 72 4 111
time_stop 42 (26, 56) 8 (6, 10) 36 (19, 54)
n_trt 172 (118, 308) 57 (53, 65) 165 (107, 276)
n_control 474 (267, 625) 91 (63, 115) 409 (183, 609)
post_p 0.03 (0.01, 0.13) 0.25 (0.19, 0.26) 0.04 (0, 0.15)
order 5 (2, 7) 1 (1, 1) 4 (2, 7)
TP53- count 238 21 269
time_stop 30 (17, 53) 27 (16, 44) 29 (16, 49)
n_trt 94 (53, 211) 77 (53, 141) 91 (55, 181)
n_control 188 (97, 334) 157 (74, 283) 173 (90, 303)
post_p 0.13 (0.03, 0.26) 0.17 (0.06, 0.23) 0.17 (0.04, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 6) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 5)
TP53+ count 212 22 252
time_stop 37 (23, 55) 21 (15, 44) 31 (20, 51)
n_trt 88 (52, 162) 63 (51, 134) 79 (52, 145)
n_control 188 (106, 275) 100 (66, 241) 148 (85, 264)
post_p 0.11 (0.02, 0.24) 0.2 (0.08, 0.29) 0.13 (0.03, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 6) 1 (1, 3.9) 3 (1, 6)
HRD+ count 126 11 247
time_stop 45 (34, 57) 40 (34, 47) 29 (20, 51)
n_trt 66 (51, 103) 73 (66, 79) 58 (50, 87)
n_control 141 (102, 179) 132 (101, 153) 88 (54, 157)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.24) 0.17 (0.05, 0.26) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27)
order 5 (2, 7) 4 (2, 6) 2 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 301 343
time_stop 37 (26, 53) 32 (21, 53)
n_trt 69 (51, 129) 65 (51, 118)
n_control 151 (100, 224) 128 (79, 224)
post_p 0.08 (0.01, 0.22) 0.11 (0.02, 0.24)
order 3 (2, 6) 3 (1, 5)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29)
n 86 (86, 86) 21 (21, 21) 48 (48, 48) 21 (21, 21) 12 (12, 12) 10 (10, 10) 11 (11, 11) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) 0.79 (0.79, 0.79) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59) 0.67 (0.67, 0.67) 0.65 (0.65, 0.65)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.015 (0.015, 0.015) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006)
Taxane_CT count 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
time 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52)
n 79 (36, 122) 26 (17, 44) 50 (33, 82) 46 (28, 76) 18 (9, 32) 19 (10, 34) 13 (6, 25) 13 (7, 21)
post_p 0.67 (0.57, 0.91) 0.8 (0.58, 0.96) 0.72 (0.57, 0.92) 0.88 (0.61, 0.98) 0.65 (0.56, 0.88) 0.7 (0.57, 0.93) 0.66 (0.57, 0.83) 0.64 (0.56, 0.85)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.009 (0.003, 0.013) 0.016 (0.01, 0.021) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.013 (0.005, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.007 (0, 0.016)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34)
n 94 (94, 94) 24 (24, 24) 39 (39, 39) 14 (14, 14) 26 (26, 26) 33 (33, 33) 15 (15, 15) 17 (17, 17)
post_p 0.76 (0.76, 0.76) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) 0.81 (0.81, 0.81) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.004 (0.004, 0.004) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012)
TP53- ARSi count 4 4 4 4
time 48 (36, 48) 48 (36, 48) 48 (36, 48) 48 (36, 48)
n 94 (78, 150) 40 (25, 54) 28 (17, 36) 36 (28, 42)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.83) 0.84 (0.79, 0.87) 0.79 (0.72, 0.88) 0.72 (0.71, 0.74)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.017) 0.015 (0.012, 0.016) 0.013 (0.009, 0.015) 0.015 (0.009, 0.018)
Taxane_CT count 87 87 87 87
time 43 (30, 57) 43 (30, 57) 43 (30, 57) 43 (30, 57)
n 95 (43, 165) 32 (18, 50) 23 (10, 42) 21 (12, 42)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.94) 0.87 (0.72, 0.98) 0.75 (0.7, 0.88) 0.83 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.009 (0.004, 0.012) 0.013 (0.007, 0.021) 0.009 (0.003, 0.014)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1
time 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32)
n 94 (94, 94) 24 (24, 24) 26 (26, 26) 33 (33, 33)
post_p 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.78 (0.78, 0.78) 0.84 (0.84, 0.84) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.005 (0.005, 0.005) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018)
TP53+ ARSi count 2 2 2 2
time 28 (24, 33) 28 (24, 33) 28 (24, 33) 28 (24, 33)
n 50 (41, 58) 24 (24, 25) 14 (13, 15) 9 (6, 12)
post_p 0.8 (0.78, 0.82) 0.85 (0.81, 0.89) 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) 0.67 (0.63, 0.72)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.017) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0.004 (0.001, 0.007) 0 (0, 0)
Taxane_CT count 82 82 82 82
time 41 (31, 53) 41 (31, 53) 41 (31, 53) 41 (31, 53)
n 58 (35, 93) 50 (30, 75) 16 (8, 28) 17 (7, 27)
post_p 0.8 (0.72, 0.93) 0.89 (0.74, 0.98) 0.73 (0.62, 0.86) 0.76 (0.63, 0.93)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.012, 0.021) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.007 (0, 0.012)
PARPi count 2 2 2 2
time 44 (38, 50) 44 (38, 50) 44 (38, 50) 44 (38, 50)
n 70 (60, 80) 46 (38, 53) 12 (9, 16) 15 (9, 21)
post_p 0.96 (0.96, 0.97) 0.78 (0.73, 0.83) 0.68 (0.62, 0.73) 0.74 (0.73, 0.75)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.011 (0.01, 0.012) 0.016 (0.014, 0.017) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
HRD+ ARSi count 6 6 6 6
time 38 (30, 48) 38 (30, 48) 38 (30, 48) 38 (30, 48)
n 18 (10, 24) 18 (7, 32) 20 (10, 31) 15 (12, 26)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.84) 0.76 (0.72, 0.9) 0.72 (0.65, 0.79) 0.75 (0.7, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.005, 0.014) 0.006 (0.003, 0.011) 0.013 (0.005, 0.016) 0.006 (0.002, 0.014)
Taxane_CT count 63 63 63 63
time 44 (32, 58) 44 (32, 58) 44 (32, 58) 44 (32, 58)
n 24 (12, 37) 26 (14, 40) 15 (8, 31) 16 (8, 26)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.91) 0.84 (0.72, 0.97) 0.74 (0.64, 0.88) 0.75 (0.64, 0.92)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.006, 0.019) 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.013)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1
time 51 (51, 51) 51 (51, 51) 51 (51, 51) 51 (51, 51)
n 37 (37, 37) 54 (54, 54) 21 (21, 21) 19 (19, 19)
post_p 0.73 (0.73, 0.73) 0.85 (0.85, 0.85) 0.75 (0.75, 0.75) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014)
TEfus+ ARSi count 2 2 2 2
time 38 (28, 47) 38 (28, 47) 38 (28, 47) 38 (28, 47)
n 26 (25, 28) 31 (29, 33) 30 (23, 37) 12 (7, 16)
post_p 0.72 (0.71, 0.72) 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.77 (0.75, 0.78) 0.66 (0.61, 0.7)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.006 (0.001, 0.01) 0.007 (0.001, 0.013) 0.003 (0.001, 0.006)
Taxane_CT count 359 359 359 359
time 40 (30, 56) 40 (30, 56) 40 (30, 56) 40 (30, 56)
n 34 (20, 53) 57 (34, 90) 25 (13, 43) 18 (9, 32)
post_p 0.82 (0.72, 0.97) 0.88 (0.73, 0.99) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96) 0.75 (0.64, 0.92)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72
time 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56)
n 47 (28, 134) 15 (8, 29) 33 (14, 70) 20 (11, 40) 11 (4, 29) 13 (5, 23) 12 (5, 28) 10 (5, 19)
post_p 0.31 (0.11, 0.46) 0.36 (0.07, 0.49) 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.24 (0.07, 0.47) 0.36 (0.15, 0.47) 0.32 (0.09, 0.46) 0.37 (0.14, 0.49) 0.32 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.021 (0.014, 0.031) 0.022 (0.019, 0.032) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.027 (0.018, 0.045) 0.022 (0.014, 0.044) 0.025 (0.018, 0.048) 0.025 (0.016, 0.042)
Taxane_CT count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10)
n 18 (17, 20) 8 (5, 9) 16 (13, 19) 12 (11, 13) 2 (1, 2) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 1) 2 (0, 4)
post_p 0.39 (0.26, 0.45) 0.5 (0.49, 0.5) 0.45 (0.35, 0.49) 0.43 (0.4, 0.46) 0.49 (0.46, 0.5) 0.49 (0.49, 0.49) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) 0.49 (0.48, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0 (0, 0) 0.02 (0.02, 0.04) 0.017 (0.014, 0.041) 0 (0, 0.215) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
PARPi count 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111
time 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54)
n 34 (16, 105) 11 (6, 25) 29 (13, 71) 16 (8, 32) 15 (9, 26) 13 (8, 23) 12 (8, 19) 12 (7, 19)
post_p 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.38 (0.1, 0.48) 0.37 (0.18, 0.47) 0.26 (0.05, 0.45) 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.3 (0.1, 0.47) 0.38 (0.12, 0.48) 0.35 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.021 (0.014, 0.042) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.023 (0.015, 0.045) 0.024 (0.015, 0.039) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.021 (0.012, 0.035)
TP53- ARSi count 238 238 238 238
time 30 (17, 53) 30 (17, 53) 30 (17, 53) 30 (17, 53)
n 48 (28, 145) 14 (8, 31) 12 (6, 35) 12 (5, 26)
post_p 0.33 (0.1, 0.48) 0.38 (0.1, 0.48) 0.43 (0.23, 0.49) 0.39 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034) 0.024 (0.017, 0.044) 0.023 (0.015, 0.049)
Taxane_CT count 21 21 21 21
time 27 (16, 44) 27 (16, 44) 27 (16, 44) 27 (16, 44)
n 32 (23, 58) 19 (11, 37) 11 (7, 20) 12 (5, 29)
post_p 0.26 (0.08, 0.38) 0.47 (0.41, 0.49) 0.45 (0.23, 0.49) 0.48 (0.36, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.03) 0.014 (0.011, 0.022) 0.028 (0.016, 0.035) 0.016 (0.009, 0.024)
PARPi count 269 269 269 269
time 29 (16, 49) 29 (16, 49) 29 (16, 49) 29 (16, 49)
n 41 (18, 120) 12 (6, 24) 16 (10, 28) 14 (9, 25)
post_p 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.4 (0.16, 0.48) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.03) 0.02 (0.013, 0.039) 0.022 (0.013, 0.032) 0.021 (0.012, 0.035)
TP53+ ARSi count 212 212 212 212
time 37 (23, 55) 37 (23, 55) 37 (23, 55) 37 (23, 55)
n 36 (17, 87) 22 (12, 48) 13 (5, 29) 11 (5, 23)
post_p 0.36 (0.09, 0.48) 0.25 (0.08, 0.46) 0.41 (0.22, 0.48) 0.4 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.021 (0.015, 0.034) 0.025 (0.018, 0.045) 0.023 (0.014, 0.045)
Taxane_CT count 22 22 22 22
time 21 (15, 44) 21 (15, 44) 21 (15, 44) 21 (15, 44)
n 27 (21, 55) 22 (18, 81) 8 (2, 19) 6 (2, 17)
post_p 0.32 (0.14, 0.46) 0.45 (0.21, 0.47) 0.42 (0.36, 0.5) 0.47 (0.4, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.029) 0.014 (0.009, 0.022) 0.025 (0.012, 0.078) 0.018 (0.013, 0.129)
PARPi count 252 252 252 252
time 31 (20, 51) 31 (20, 51) 31 (20, 51) 31 (20, 51)
n 32 (16, 78) 17 (10, 43) 13 (8, 21) 12 (7, 21)
post_p 0.4 (0.21, 0.48) 0.34 (0.07, 0.47) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.029) 0.02 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036)
HRD+ ARSi count 126 126 126 126
time 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57)
n 17 (7, 38) 15 (8, 35) 17 (7, 30) 14 (6, 24)
post_p 0.4 (0.15, 0.48) 0.3 (0.08, 0.47) 0.37 (0.13, 0.49) 0.35 (0.11, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.018, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.025 (0.017, 0.036) 0.023 (0.015, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 11 11 11 11
time 40 (34, 47) 40 (34, 47) 40 (34, 47) 40 (34, 47)
n 21 (8, 30) 19 (9, 26) 13 (7, 24) 19 (11, 25)
post_p 0.43 (0.15, 0.48) 0.43 (0.23, 0.49) 0.38 (0.17, 0.48) 0.44 (0.33, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.032) 0.017 (0.015, 0.023) 0.024 (0.02, 0.04) 0.018 (0.012, 0.027)
PARPi count 247 247 247 247
time 29 (20, 51) 29 (20, 51) 29 (20, 51) 29 (20, 51)
n 17 (11, 30) 15 (10, 25) 13 (8, 23) 13 (8, 22)
post_p 0.4 (0.15, 0.49) 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039) 0.02 (0.011, 0.031)
TEfus+ ARSi count 301 301 301 301
time 37 (26, 53) 37 (26, 53) 37 (26, 53) 37 (26, 53)
n 17 (8, 39) 24 (12, 55) 15 (7, 35) 12 (6, 25)
post_p 0.32 (0.08, 0.48) 0.29 (0.07, 0.47) 0.38 (0.12, 0.48) 0.4 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.035) 0.02 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.023 (0.014, 0.041)
PARPi count 343 343 343 343
time 32 (21, 53) 32 (21, 53) 32 (21, 53) 32 (21, 53)
n 14 (8, 33) 20 (11, 52) 16 (10, 28) 13 (8, 26)
post_p 0.39 (0.13, 0.48) 0.35 (0.08, 0.47) 0.32 (0.08, 0.46) 0.38 (0.12, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.02 (0.013, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034)