Setting description

ARSi more effective in the TP53- biomarker signature

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 51.1, median = 41.7 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.31, hr = 0.71 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 51.7, median = 42.2 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.32, hr = 0.69 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 48.5, median = 39.6 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.24, hr = 0.75 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 78 1 0
TP53- 387 2 0
TP53+ 24 11 18
HRD+ 76 3 1
TEfus+ 85 7 1
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.156 0.002 0.000
TP53- 0.774 0.004 0.000
TP53+ 0.048 0.022 0.036
HRD+ 0.152 0.006 0.002
TEfus+ 0.170 0.014 0.002
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 96 120
TP53- 2 384 399
TP53+ 132 144 176
HRD+ 9 128 261
TEfus+ 8 214 220
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.192 0.240
TP53- 0.004 0.768 0.798
TP53+ 0.264 0.288 0.352
HRD+ 0.018 0.256 0.522
TEfus+ 0.016 0.428 0.440
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 91 22 11
TP53+ 6 16 11
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.182 0.044 0.022
TP53+ 0.012 0.032 0.022
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.11.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.026     0.046     0.040

The overall power was 0.774.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.774     0.000     0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 78 1 0
futility 0 0 96 120
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 665 (532, 738) 375 (231, 515) 287 (162, 448) 253 (143, 405)
n_unique 665 (532, 738) 375 (231, 515) 287 (162, 448) 253 (143, 405)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (39, 60) 60 (37, 60) 60 (32, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (25, 51) 37 (19, 57) 34 (19, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.1 (0, 0.46) 0.1 (0, 0.49)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.02) 0.014 (0.012, 0.016) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53- graduation 0 387 2 0
futility 0 2 384 399
max_n 0 91 22 11
n 344 (224, 414) 224 (125, 305) 106 (55, 248) 92 (54, 242)
n_unique 344 (224, 414) 224 (125, 305) 106 (55, 248) 92 (54, 242)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 43 (29, 60) 38 (21, 60) 33 (18, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 39 (27, 53) 32 (19, 51) 28 (17, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.05 (0, 0.35) 0.06 (0, 0.31)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TP53+ graduation 0 24 11 18
futility 0 132 144 176
max_n 0 6 16 11
n 321 (271, 354) 144 (66, 247) 166 (60, 258) 142 (54, 237)
n_unique 321 (271, 354) 144 (66, 247) 166 (60, 258) 142 (54, 237)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (24, 60) 60 (25, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 38 (24, 57) 30 (18, 51) 30 (19, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.08, 0.91) 0.48 (0.07, 0.9) 0.45 (0.08, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)
HRD+ graduation 0 76 3 1
futility 0 9 128 261
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 176 (135, 209) 90 (54, 135) 80 (40, 131) 70 (50, 126)
n_unique 176 (135, 209) 90 (54, 135) 80 (40, 131) 70 (50, 126)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (43, 60) 60 (40, 60) 56 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 41 (32, 53) 44 (32, 56) 30 (19, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.91 (0.58, 1) 0.24 (0.04, 0.69) 0.19 (0.02, 0.69)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.014 (0.011, 0.017) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.023 (0.019, 0.028)
TEfus+ graduation 0 85 7 1
futility 0 8 214 220
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 239 (190, 274) 121 (71, 191) 108 (52, 183) 98 (51, 171)
n_unique 239 (190, 274) 121 (71, 191) 108 (52, 183) 98 (51, 171)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (40, 60) 60 (26, 60) 60 (24, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 39 (26, 56) 36 (22, 55) 34 (21, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.93 (0.56, 1) 0.24 (0.02, 0.7) 0.25 (0.03, 0.7)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.022) 0.015 (0.012, 0.018) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 403 396 410
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 88 22 11
n 193 (126, 239) 138 (70, 200) 49 (21, 143) 41 (18, 142)
n_unique 193 (126, 239) 138 (70, 200) 49 (21, 143) 41 (18, 142)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.92, 1) 0.12 (0.01, 0.46) 0.16 (0.01, 0.54)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029)
–+ graduation 0 406 418 431
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 86 22 11
n 52 (32, 69) 32 (17, 53) 18 (10, 48) 15 (7, 45)
n_unique 52 (32, 69) 32 (17, 53) 18 (10, 48) 15 (7, 45)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.92 (0.61, 0.99) 0.23 (0.04, 0.62) 0.26 (0.05, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.01 (0.007, 0.015) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037)
-+- graduation 0 212 170 215
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 16 11
n 138 (113, 157) 54 (19, 128) 62 (24, 131) 53 (16, 123)
n_unique 138 (113, 157) 54 (19, 128) 62 (24, 131) 53 (16, 123)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.89) 0.45 (0.09, 0.89) 0.41 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 261 286 307
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 16 11
n 101 (76, 118) 37 (15, 91) 40 (16, 96) 38 (12, 92)
n_unique 101 (76, 118) 37 (15, 91) 40 (16, 96) 38 (12, 92)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.1, 0.89) 0.47 (0.1, 0.89) 0.48 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032)
+– graduation 0 408 409 437
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 86 22 10
n 48 (30, 63) 25 (12, 43) 18 (6, 42) 17 (10, 42)
n_unique 48 (30, 63) 25 (12, 43) 18 (6, 42) 17 (10, 42)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.52, 0.99) 0.27 (0.06, 0.65) 0.24 (0.04, 0.6)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.022) 0.01 (0.006, 0.017) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032)
+-+ graduation 0 411 427 452
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 84 22 10
n 45 (28, 61) 25 (12, 44) 15 (6, 42) 16 (10, 39)
n_unique 45 (28, 61) 25 (12, 44) 15 (6, 42) 16 (10, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.9 (0.59, 0.99) 0.28 (0.06, 0.67) 0.24 (0.04, 0.63)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.023) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.024 (0.017, 0.035)
++- graduation 0 264 243 352
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 16 10
n 42 (29, 52) 18 (7, 36) 21 (6, 40) 15 (8, 37)
n_unique 42 (29, 52) 18 (7, 36) 21 (6, 40) 15 (8, 37)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.16, 0.87) 0.5 (0.16, 0.85) 0.46 (0.11, 0.81)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.014, 0.032) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.037)
+++ graduation 0 302 323 390
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 16 10
n 41 (26, 52) 18 (7, 39) 16 (5, 39) 14 (7, 38)
n_unique 41 (26, 52) 18 (7, 39) 16 (5, 39) 14 (7, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.15, 0.86) 0.46 (0.14, 0.84) 0.46 (0.12, 0.82)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.022 (0.014, 0.039) 0.023 (0.015, 0.036)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 78 1
time_stop 36 (25, 51) 32 (32, 32)
n_trt 268 (194, 386) 293 (293, 293)
n_control 395 (262, 562) 385 (385, 385)
post_p 1 (0.96, 1) 0.94 (0.94, 0.94)
order 1.5 (1, 3) 2 (2, 2)
TP53- count 387 2
time_stop 39 (28, 53) 40 (37, 43)
n_trt 202 (122, 302) 138 (136, 140)
n_control 242 (163, 345) 254 (240, 268)
post_p 1 (0.96, 1) 0.96 (0.94, 0.97)
order 1 (1, 2) 2.5 (2.1, 2.9)
TP53+ count 24 11 18
time_stop 44 (24, 58) 48 (39, 54) 40 (29, 55)
n_trt 110 (79, 184) 170 (130, 232) 164 (105, 209)
n_control 196 (121, 322) 238 (199, 312) 192 (142, 278)
post_p 0.97 (0.93, 0.99) 0.96 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.94, 0.99)
order 3 (1, 4) 1 (1, 2) 1.5 (1, 3)
HRD+ count 76 3 1
time_stop 41 (32, 54) 49 (36, 56) 42 (42, 42)
n_trt 82 (56, 116) 70 (60, 73) 145 (145, 145)
n_control 130 (96, 172) 149 (118, 182) 123 (123, 123)
post_p 0.98 (0.91, 1) 0.9 (0.87, 0.95) 0.96 (0.96, 0.96)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.2, 2) 2 (2, 2)
TEfus+ count 85 7 1
time_stop 39 (27, 56) 34 (26, 45) 44 (44, 44)
n_trt 99 (67, 156) 89 (74, 130) 136 (136, 136)
n_control 163 (110, 233) 134 (95, 205) 173 (173, 173)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.95, 1) 0.99 (0.99, 0.99)
order 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 96 120
time_stop 37 (18, 57) 34 (19, 54)
n_trt 170 (98, 327) 164 (94, 249)
n_control 411 (182, 646) 396 (195, 616)
post_p 0.03 (0, 0.14) 0.02 (0, 0.14)
order 4 (1, 8.5) 4 (1, 7)
TP53- count 2 384 399
time_stop 18 (13, 24) 32 (19, 51) 28 (17, 50)
n_trt 62 (52, 72) 89 (54, 199) 84 (54, 171)
n_control 110 (75, 145) 196 (104, 350) 165 (95, 324)
post_p 0.19 (0.15, 0.23) 0.1 (0.01, 0.24) 0.11 (0.01, 0.26)
order 2 (1.2, 2.8) 2 (1, 6) 2 (1, 5)
TP53+ count 132 144 176
time_stop 37 (24, 55) 28 (17, 50) 30 (19, 51)
n_trt 93 (51, 174) 85 (53, 171) 80 (52, 159)
n_control 184 (106, 300) 140 (80, 268) 147 (88, 275)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.26) 0.15 (0.04, 0.26) 0.13 (0.04, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6)
HRD+ count 9 128 261
time_stop 35 (28, 47) 44 (32, 56) 30 (19, 53)
n_trt 59 (50, 77) 65 (51, 105) 58 (50, 95)
n_control 113 (85, 160) 138 (94, 184) 88 (52, 163)
post_p 0.12 (0.05, 0.22) 0.1 (0.02, 0.23) 0.14 (0.03, 0.27)
order 4 (1, 5.6) 4 (3, 7) 3 (1, 6)
TEfus+ count 8 214 220
time_stop 25 (24, 42) 36 (22, 55) 34 (21, 54)
n_trt 59 (50, 118) 72 (52, 123) 72 (51, 132)
n_control 96 (90, 190) 150 (81, 229) 137 (81, 220)
post_p 0.14 (0.06, 0.19) 0.11 (0.03, 0.26) 0.14 (0.03, 0.26)
order 4 (2, 6.2) 3 (2, 7) 3 (1, 6)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78
time 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51) 36 (25, 51)
n 98 (62, 144) 24 (15, 39) 44 (26, 78) 30 (17, 52) 17 (9, 31) 18 (9, 32) 12 (7, 24) 14 (7, 25)
post_p 0.94 (0.76, 1) 0.75 (0.63, 0.94) 0.72 (0.57, 0.88) 0.66 (0.56, 0.92) 0.71 (0.57, 0.93) 0.76 (0.57, 0.95) 0.63 (0.56, 0.83) 0.66 (0.56, 0.81)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.006, 0.012) 0.008 (0, 0.012) 0.015 (0.01, 0.021) 0.015 (0.01, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.006 (0, 0.013) 0.012 (0, 0.021) 0.013 (0, 0.02)
Taxane_CT count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32)
n 62 (62, 62) 32 (32, 32) 88 (88, 88) 40 (40, 40) 27 (27, 27) 20 (20, 20) 10 (10, 10) 14 (14, 14)
post_p 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) 0.65 (0.65, 0.65) 0.77 (0.77, 0.77) 0.55 (0.55, 0.55) 0.83 (0.83, 0.83) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.64 (0.64, 0.64) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.022 (0.022, 0.022)
TP53- ARSi count 387 387 387 387
time 39 (28, 53) 39 (28, 53) 39 (28, 53) 39 (28, 53)
n 121 (69, 184) 31 (17, 50) 23 (12, 41) 24 (12, 41)
post_p 0.97 (0.78, 1) 0.81 (0.71, 0.97) 0.75 (0.7, 0.95) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.006, 0.012) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.012)
Taxane_CT count 2 2 2 2
time 40 (37, 43) 40 (37, 43) 40 (37, 43) 40 (37, 43)
n 66 (63, 70) 29 (27, 31) 23 (20, 26) 20 (20, 20)
post_p 0.77 (0.75, 0.79) 0.77 (0.73, 0.8) 0.8 (0.76, 0.84) 0.73 (0.71, 0.75)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.015, 0.016) 0.012 (0.01, 0.014) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0.011 (0.01, 0.012)
TP53+ ARSi count 24 24 24 24
time 44 (24, 58) 44 (24, 58) 44 (24, 58) 44 (24, 58)
n 46 (28, 91) 31 (21, 51) 13 (7, 34) 16 (7, 26)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.94) 0.8 (0.72, 0.93) 0.74 (0.63, 0.88) 0.77 (0.66, 0.91)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.009, 0.02) 0.014 (0.01, 0.02) 0.011 (0, 0.02) 0.012 (0, 0.019)
Taxane_CT count 11 11 11 11
time 48 (39, 54) 48 (39, 54) 48 (39, 54) 48 (39, 54)
n 59 (44, 127) 53 (37, 75) 21 (15, 33) 21 (10, 33)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.78) 0.8 (0.76, 0.92) 0.81 (0.72, 0.92) 0.76 (0.6, 0.86)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.014, 0.02) 0.016 (0.014, 0.019) 0.012 (0.009, 0.016) 0.015 (0.011, 0.018)
PARPi count 18 18 18 18
time 40 (29, 55) 40 (29, 55) 40 (29, 55) 40 (29, 55)
n 68 (39, 99) 44 (25, 72) 19 (10, 33) 23 (11, 34)
post_p 0.83 (0.72, 0.91) 0.77 (0.71, 0.92) 0.72 (0.7, 0.87) 0.77 (0.68, 0.86)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.01, 0.019) 0.016 (0.012, 0.02) 0.015 (0.007, 0.017) 0.013 (0.008, 0.016)
HRD+ ARSi count 76 76 76 76
time 41 (32, 54) 41 (32, 54) 41 (32, 54) 41 (32, 54)
n 22 (13, 36) 25 (14, 36) 18 (9, 30) 17 (9, 28)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.95) 0.84 (0.71, 0.96) 0.76 (0.64, 0.88) 0.74 (0.68, 0.84)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.003, 0.012) 0.009 (0.004, 0.012) 0.012 (0.006, 0.02) 0.014 (0.005, 0.019)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3
time 49 (36, 56) 49 (36, 56) 49 (36, 56) 49 (36, 56)
n 8 (7, 22) 10 (10, 13) 18 (17, 31) 19 (17, 22)
post_p 0.74 (0.69, 0.8) 0.71 (0.63, 0.75) 0.75 (0.71, 0.81) 0.77 (0.73, 0.83)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.008, 0.016) 0.012 (0.006, 0.015) 0.014 (0.011, 0.018) 0.011 (0.011, 0.017)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1
time 42 (42, 42) 42 (42, 42) 42 (42, 42) 42 (42, 42)
n 38 (38, 38) 45 (45, 45) 34 (34, 34) 28 (28, 28)
post_p 0.75 (0.75, 0.75) 0.88 (0.88, 0.88) 0.75 (0.75, 0.75) 0.81 (0.81, 0.81)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013)
TEfus+ ARSi count 85 85 85 85
time 39 (27, 56) 39 (27, 56) 39 (27, 56) 39 (27, 56)
n 26 (16, 39) 35 (20, 67) 21 (11, 36) 16 (8, 26)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.96) 0.76 (0.71, 0.91) 0.79 (0.7, 0.94) 0.74 (0.64, 0.88)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.004, 0.012) 0.015 (0.01, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.012) 0.011 (0, 0.018)
Taxane_CT count 7 7 7 7
time 34 (26, 45) 34 (26, 45) 34 (26, 45) 34 (26, 45)
n 25 (17, 28) 29 (27, 67) 18 (8, 23) 14 (7, 37)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.88) 0.75 (0.72, 0.9) 0.76 (0.64, 0.87) 0.74 (0.63, 0.88)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.005, 0.018) 0.012 (0.01, 0.018) 0.009 (0.003, 0.017) 0.006 (0, 0.016)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1
time 44 (44, 44) 44 (44, 44) 44 (44, 44) 44 (44, 44)
n 22 (22, 22) 47 (47, 47) 37 (37, 37) 30 (30, 30)
post_p 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.87 (0.87, 0.87) 0.86 (0.86, 0.86)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0.009 (0.009, 0.009)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Taxane_CT count 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
time 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57) 37 (18, 57)
n 38 (20, 124) 14 (8, 34) 30 (18, 69) 22 (13, 42) 11 (4, 34) 10 (4, 32) 9 (3, 20) 8 (3, 18)
post_p 0.23 (0.03, 0.45) 0.29 (0.06, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.48) 0.32 (0.1, 0.46) 0.36 (0.07, 0.48) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48) 0.43 (0.22, 0.49) 0.41 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.03) 0.022 (0.014, 0.038) 0.023 (0.016, 0.03) 0.024 (0.019, 0.034) 0.024 (0.015, 0.039) 0.023 (0.014, 0.037) 0.025 (0.015, 0.044) 0.026 (0.018, 0.056)
PARPi count 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120
time 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54) 34 (19, 54)
n 30 (17, 65) 12 (5, 25) 24 (10, 78) 20 (8, 56) 14 (10, 28) 14 (8, 28) 12 (7, 20) 11 (6, 20)
post_p 0.27 (0.03, 0.47) 0.34 (0.11, 0.48) 0.31 (0.09, 0.48) 0.37 (0.17, 0.49) 0.33 (0.1, 0.48) 0.27 (0.07, 0.47) 0.38 (0.19, 0.47) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.014, 0.029) 0.022 (0.015, 0.042) 0.024 (0.019, 0.037) 0.023 (0.017, 0.04) 0.022 (0.013, 0.035) 0.022 (0.014, 0.043) 0.024 (0.015, 0.035) 0.026 (0.017, 0.045)
TP53- ARSi count 2 2 2 2
time 18 (13, 24) 18 (13, 24) 18 (13, 24) 18 (13, 24)
n 36 (36, 37) 10 (8, 12) 6 (4, 8) 10 (5, 14)
post_p 0.34 (0.29, 0.39) 0.47 (0.46, 0.47) 0.42 (0.42, 0.43) 0.44 (0.43, 0.45)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.004 (0.001, 0.007) 0.043 (0.033, 0.053) 0.037 (0.025, 0.049)
Taxane_CT count 384 384 384 384
time 32 (19, 51) 32 (19, 51) 32 (19, 51) 32 (19, 51)
n 40 (21, 110) 17 (10, 37) 14 (6, 34) 13 (6, 33)
post_p 0.25 (0.04, 0.46) 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.42 (0.17, 0.48) 0.41 (0.18, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.028) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.038) 0.021 (0.013, 0.037)
PARPi count 399 399 399 399
time 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50)
n 35 (18, 97) 13 (7, 36) 16 (10, 31) 15 (10, 30)
post_p 0.33 (0.06, 0.47) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49) 0.37 (0.12, 0.48) 0.36 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.029) 0.021 (0.014, 0.041) 0.02 (0.012, 0.033) 0.021 (0.012, 0.035)
TP53+ ARSi count 132 132 132 132
time 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55) 37 (24, 55)
n 34 (15, 85) 22 (11, 61) 12 (5, 25) 12 (6, 30)
post_p 0.3 (0.09, 0.47) 0.32 (0.09, 0.48) 0.41 (0.19, 0.48) 0.42 (0.16, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.024 (0.018, 0.036) 0.026 (0.019, 0.042) 0.026 (0.017, 0.047)
Taxane_CT count 144 144 144 144
time 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50)
n 31 (21, 81) 25 (15, 53) 10 (3, 25) 9 (4, 21)
post_p 0.34 (0.12, 0.47) 0.32 (0.11, 0.47) 0.43 (0.3, 0.49) 0.43 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.028) 0.023 (0.015, 0.033) 0.024 (0.015, 0.062) 0.026 (0.016, 0.05)
PARPi count 176 176 176 176
time 30 (19, 51) 30 (19, 51) 30 (19, 51) 30 (19, 51)
n 27 (14, 78) 21 (11, 60) 12 (7, 20) 12 (7, 21)
post_p 0.34 (0.11, 0.47) 0.37 (0.16, 0.48) 0.38 (0.19, 0.48) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.017, 0.035) 0.022 (0.016, 0.035) 0.024 (0.016, 0.037) 0.025 (0.016, 0.045)
HRD+ ARSi count 9 9 9 9
time 35 (28, 47) 35 (28, 47) 35 (28, 47) 35 (28, 47)
n 13 (9, 18) 20 (11, 31) 14 (7, 23) 11 (9, 18)
post_p 0.42 (0.22, 0.47) 0.43 (0.33, 0.48) 0.42 (0.2, 0.47) 0.43 (0.18, 0.45)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.018 (0.011, 0.025) 0.023 (0.015, 0.03) 0.027 (0.016, 0.036)
Taxane_CT count 128 128 128 128
time 44 (32, 56) 44 (32, 56) 44 (32, 56) 44 (32, 56)
n 19 (8, 37) 16 (8, 33) 14 (8, 29) 14 (6, 30)
post_p 0.33 (0.08, 0.48) 0.35 (0.07, 0.48) 0.39 (0.19, 0.48) 0.41 (0.21, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.024 (0.017, 0.037) 0.024 (0.017, 0.037)
PARPi count 261 261 261 261
time 30 (19, 53) 30 (19, 53) 30 (19, 53) 30 (19, 53)
n 16 (11, 30) 16 (10, 28) 13 (7, 24) 13 (7, 24)
post_p 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.4 (0.19, 0.48) 0.41 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.012, 0.032) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.023 (0.013, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037)
TEfus+ ARSi count 8 8 8 8
time 25 (24, 42) 25 (24, 42) 25 (24, 42) 25 (24, 42)
n 13 (10, 37) 20 (17, 47) 16 (12, 26) 10 (6, 12)
post_p 0.41 (0.27, 0.47) 0.38 (0.29, 0.48) 0.45 (0.28, 0.47) 0.45 (0.29, 0.49)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.028) 0.022 (0.018, 0.024) 0.018 (0.015, 0.023) 0.035 (0.022, 0.042)
Taxane_CT count 214 214 214 214
time 36 (22, 55) 36 (22, 55) 36 (22, 55) 36 (22, 55)
n 17 (11, 35) 27 (16, 62) 13 (6, 32) 10 (5, 25)
post_p 0.28 (0.1, 0.47) 0.32 (0.07, 0.47) 0.39 (0.15, 0.49) 0.42 (0.23, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.013, 0.033) 0.023 (0.017, 0.031) 0.022 (0.013, 0.037) 0.025 (0.018, 0.045)
PARPi count 220 220 220 220
time 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54)
n 13 (7, 32) 25 (12, 68) 15 (10, 28) 12 (7, 22)
post_p 0.34 (0.11, 0.48) 0.41 (0.2, 0.48) 0.3 (0.08, 0.47) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.014, 0.041) 0.021 (0.017, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.025 (0.015, 0.036)