Setting description

Taxane_CT more effective in all the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 409 0
TP53- 0 363 0
TP53+ 0 359 0
HRD+ 2 232 0
TEfus+ 2 335 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.818 0
TP53- 0.000 0.726 0
TP53+ 0.000 0.718 0
HRD+ 0.004 0.464 0
TEfus+ 0.004 0.670 0
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 210 2 288
TP53- 382 2 398
TP53+ 326 4 359
HRD+ 198 1 329
TEfus+ 298 3 336
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.420 0.004 0.576
TP53- 0.764 0.004 0.796
TP53+ 0.652 0.008 0.718
HRD+ 0.396 0.002 0.658
TEfus+ 0.596 0.006 0.672
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 36 45 17
TP53+ 6 10 2
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.00 0.000
TP53- 0.072 0.09 0.034
TP53+ 0.012 0.02 0.004
HRD+ 0.000 0.00 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.00 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.16.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.008     0.152     0.000

The overall power was 0.818.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.000     0.818     0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 0 409 0
futility 0 210 2 288
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 596 (445, 728) 259 (135, 439) 328 (204, 499) 208 (117, 382)
n_unique 596 (445, 728) 259 (135, 439) 328 (204, 499) 208 (117, 382)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (34, 60) 39 (24, 60) 52 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 43 (25, 57) 35 (23, 52) 36 (19, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.01 (0, 0.16) 1 (1, 1) 0.02 (0, 0.18)
rate 0.017 (0.016, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.011 (0.01, 0.012) 0.022 (0.02, 0.025)
TP53- graduation 0 0 363 0
futility 0 382 2 398
max_n 0 36 45 17
n 334 (205, 409) 117 (55, 293) 174 (107, 301) 97 (52, 248)
n_unique 334 (205, 409) 117 (55, 293) 174 (107, 301) 97 (52, 248)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 40 (18, 60) 44 (29, 60) 33 (17, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 33 (17, 54) 38 (28, 54) 28 (17, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.06 (0, 0.31) 1 (0.98, 1) 0.06 (0, 0.35)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.011 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+ graduation 0 0 359 0
futility 0 326 4 359
max_n 0 6 10 2
n 278 (168, 348) 112 (52, 231) 142 (89, 238) 87 (50, 200)
n_unique 278 (168, 348) 112 (52, 231) 142 (89, 238) 87 (50, 200)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 47 (26, 60) 45 (29, 60) 40 (20, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (24, 54) 39 (27, 54) 30 (19, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.06 (0, 0.37) 1 (0.97, 1) 0.07 (0, 0.39)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.011 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)
HRD+ graduation 0 2 232 0
futility 0 198 1 329
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 154 (104, 200) 74 (40, 132) 70 (41, 112) 60 (46, 121)
n_unique 154 (104, 200) 74 (40, 132) 70 (41, 112) 60 (46, 121)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (37, 60) 60 (36, 60) 41 (20, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 45 (32, 56) 44 (33, 56) 30 (19, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.12 (0.01, 0.48) 0.99 (0.88, 1) 0.1 (0.01, 0.47)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.022 (0.017, 0.027) 0.01 (0.008, 0.013) 0.023 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 2 335 0
futility 0 298 3 336
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 202 (137, 265) 90 (50, 173) 110 (71, 172) 74 (47, 150)
n_unique 202 (137, 265) 90 (50, 173) 110 (71, 172) 74 (47, 150)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 51 (28, 60) 49 (30, 60) 44 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 38 (26, 55) 41 (29, 56) 32 (22, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.08 (0.01, 0.38) 1 (0.95, 1) 0.09 (0, 0.45)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.01 (0.009, 0.013) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 390 450 415
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 36 34 17
n 191 (117, 241) 56 (27, 161) 102 (53, 187) 44 (18, 146)
n_unique 191 (117, 241) 56 (27, 161) 102 (53, 187) 44 (18, 146)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.14 (0.01, 0.51) 1 (0.9, 1) 0.14 (0.01, 0.51)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.011 (0.008, 0.013) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03)
–+ graduation 0 418 461 441
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 36 33 17
n 49 (27, 68) 18 (8, 49) 28 (15, 47) 14 (7, 44)
n_unique 49 (27, 68) 18 (8, 49) 28 (15, 47) 14 (7, 44)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.26 (0.05, 0.64) 0.9 (0.61, 0.99) 0.29 (0.07, 0.64)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.01 (0.007, 0.016) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035)
-+- graduation 0 349 451 398
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 9 2
n 129 (73, 156) 40 (16, 108) 65 (36, 122) 32 (14, 103)
n_unique 129 (73, 156) 40 (16, 108) 65 (36, 122) 32 (14, 103)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.15 (0.02, 0.58) 0.98 (0.77, 1) 0.19 (0.03, 0.57)
rate 0.017 (0.014, 0.02) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03)
-++ graduation 0 414 474 445
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 5 9 2
n 81 (47, 113) 29 (12, 81) 45 (26, 80) 21 (10, 71)
n_unique 81 (47, 113) 29 (12, 81) 45 (26, 80) 21 (10, 71)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.2 (0.03, 0.58) 0.96 (0.72, 1) 0.21 (0.03, 0.61)
rate 0.017 (0.014, 0.021) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033)
+– graduation 0 409 457 453
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 35 32 17
n 45 (25, 61) 18 (6, 47) 20 (9, 38) 16 (10, 38)
n_unique 45 (25, 61) 18 (6, 47) 20 (9, 38) 16 (10, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.29 (0.05, 0.66) 0.88 (0.57, 0.98) 0.28 (0.04, 0.61)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.022 (0.015, 0.038) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033)
+-+ graduation 0 432 467 466
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 35 31 17
n 40 (24, 59) 15 (6, 44) 19 (9, 35) 16 (10, 39)
n_unique 40 (24, 59) 15 (6, 44) 19 (9, 35) 16 (10, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.27 (0.05, 0.63) 0.88 (0.52, 0.98) 0.24 (0.05, 0.62)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.01 (0.006, 0.017) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)
++- graduation 0 374 461 444
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 5 9 2
n 36 (19, 50) 17 (6, 39) 13 (7, 29) 13 (8, 33)
n_unique 36 (19, 50) 17 (6, 39) 13 (7, 29) 13 (8, 33)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.31 (0.07, 0.7) 0.83 (0.51, 0.97) 0.27 (0.06, 0.63)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.023) 0.022 (0.013, 0.035) 0.01 (0.004, 0.017) 0.023 (0.016, 0.036)
+++ graduation 0 430 480 470
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 4 9 2
n 31 (17, 48) 15 (6, 35) 14 (7, 26) 13 (7, 31)
n_unique 31 (17, 48) 15 (6, 35) 14 (7, 26) 13 (7, 31)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.32 (0.07, 0.68) 0.82 (0.55, 0.97) 0.27 (0.05, 0.63)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.024) 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.01 (0.005, 0.017) 0.024 (0.016, 0.035)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT
all count 409
time_stop 35 (23, 52)
n_trt 305 (200, 459)
n_control 389 (245, 594)
post_p 1 (0.98, 1)
order 1 (1, 3)
TP53- count 363
time_stop 38 (28, 54)
n_trt 162 (107, 257)
n_control 225 (160, 331)
post_p 1 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 359
time_stop 39 (27, 54)
n_trt 131 (89, 209)
n_control 196 (128, 281)
post_p 1 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 4)
HRD+ count 2 232
time_stop 39 (29, 49) 44 (33, 56)
n_trt 108 (77, 138) 75 (54, 106)
n_control 130 (97, 164) 124 (93, 168)
post_p 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) 0.99 (0.94, 1)
order 2.5 (2.1, 2.9) 4 (2, 5)
TEfus+ count 2 335
time_stop 44 (42, 46) 42 (29, 56)
n_trt 162 (148, 176) 107 (71, 155)
n_control 211 (205, 217) 160 (106, 221)
post_p 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1.2, 2.8) 3 (1, 5)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 210 2 288
time_stop 43 (25, 57) 9 (8, 10) 36 (19, 54)
n_trt 193 (113, 330) 66 (59, 73) 157 (108, 272)
n_control 455 (267, 610) 106 (98, 115) 390 (197, 583)
post_p 0.01 (0, 0.09) 0.22 (0.2, 0.24) 0.02 (0, 0.11)
order 5 (2, 8) 1 (1, 1) 4 (2, 7)
TP53- count 382 2 398
time_stop 33 (17, 54) 18 (16, 20) 28 (17, 50)
n_trt 95 (54, 221) 74 (55, 94) 86 (52, 184)
n_control 205 (96, 353) 109 (80, 138) 161 (91, 324)
post_p 0.1 (0.01, 0.24) 0.14 (0.07, 0.2) 0.12 (0.02, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 7) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9) 2 (1, 6)
TP53+ count 326 4 359
time_stop 36 (24, 54) 18 (16, 21) 30 (19, 52)
n_trt 87 (52, 181) 60 (53, 70) 76 (52, 157)
n_control 186 (108, 286) 76 (67, 96) 148 (85, 270)
post_p 0.08 (0.01, 0.21) 0.22 (0.17, 0.23) 0.1 (0.02, 0.25)
order 4 (1, 7) 2 (1.3, 2.7) 3 (1, 6)
HRD+ count 198 1 329
time_stop 45 (32, 56) 33 (33, 33) 30 (19, 50)
n_trt 71 (52, 113) 65 (65, 65) 59 (50, 97)
n_control 131 (95, 170) 94 (94, 94) 90 (54, 156)
post_p 0.09 (0.01, 0.22) 0.22 (0.22, 0.22) 0.14 (0.03, 0.27)
order 6 (3, 9) 5 (5, 5) 3 (1, 6)
TEfus+ count 298 3 336
time_stop 38 (26, 55) 23 (18, 23) 32 (22, 52)
n_trt 77 (51, 129) 51 (50, 59) 68 (51, 122)
n_control 156 (97, 212) 80 (62, 86) 133 (79, 210)
post_p 0.09 (0.01, 0.24) 0.16 (0.13, 0.17) 0.12 (0.02, 0.25)
order 5 (2, 8) 2 (1.2, 2.8) 4 (2, 7)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Taxane_CT count 409 409 409 409 409 409 409 409
time 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52) 35 (23, 52)
n 96 (52, 167) 27 (16, 42) 62 (36, 106) 44 (26, 71) 19 (9, 35) 19 (9, 33) 13 (7, 25) 13 (7, 24)
post_p 0.95 (0.7, 1) 0.73 (0.57, 0.96) 0.87 (0.6, 0.99) 0.83 (0.59, 0.99) 0.71 (0.57, 0.94) 0.71 (0.56, 0.95) 0.66 (0.56, 0.88) 0.65 (0.56, 0.89)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.006, 0.012) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.015)
TP53- count 363 363 363 363
time 38 (28, 54) 38 (28, 54) 38 (28, 54) 38 (28, 54)
n 97 (53, 163) 27 (16, 42) 19 (9, 34) 19 (9, 33)
post_p 0.96 (0.78, 1) 0.79 (0.71, 0.96) 0.76 (0.7, 0.95) 0.77 (0.7, 0.95)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.007, 0.012) 0.008 (0.003, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
TP53+ count 359 359 359 359
time 39 (27, 54) 39 (27, 54) 39 (27, 54) 39 (27, 54)
n 61 (37, 105) 43 (26, 71) 13 (7, 25) 14 (7, 25)
post_p 0.91 (0.74, 1) 0.86 (0.72, 0.99) 0.74 (0.63, 0.9) 0.74 (0.62, 0.91)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.012)
HRD+ ARSi count 2 2 2 2
time 39 (29, 49) 39 (29, 49) 39 (29, 49) 39 (29, 49)
n 38 (25, 52) 19 (13, 25) 22 (16, 28) 28 (22, 33)
post_p 0.81 (0.72, 0.9) 0.79 (0.76, 0.82) 0.73 (0.71, 0.74) 0.87 (0.85, 0.89)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.009, 0.01) 0.005 (0.001, 0.009) 0.003 (0.001, 0.006) 0.007 (0.006, 0.009)
Taxane_CT count 232 232 232 232
time 44 (33, 56) 44 (33, 56) 44 (33, 56) 44 (33, 56)
n 22 (13, 36) 22 (13, 35) 14 (8, 27) 15 (8, 25)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.97) 0.85 (0.71, 0.97) 0.77 (0.68, 0.92) 0.76 (0.66, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.013)
TEfus+ ARSi count 2 2 2 2
time 44 (42, 46) 44 (42, 46) 44 (42, 46) 44 (42, 46)
n 35 (31, 39) 57 (49, 65) 36 (33, 40) 34 (28, 39)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) 0.88 (0.82, 0.95) 0.78 (0.74, 0.83) 0.82 (0.78, 0.86)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.015, 0.015) 0.013 (0.01, 0.015) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.008 (0.007, 0.008)
Taxane_CT count 335 335 335 335
time 42 (29, 56) 42 (29, 56) 42 (29, 56) 42 (29, 56)
n 27 (16, 42) 44 (26, 71) 19 (9, 34) 13 (7, 24)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.97) 0.89 (0.73, 0.99) 0.79 (0.7, 0.97) 0.73 (0.62, 0.9)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.004, 0.012) 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.012)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210
time 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57) 43 (25, 57)
n 45 (26, 118) 15 (8, 40) 30 (15, 82) 22 (10, 49) 14 (6, 37) 12 (5, 31) 11 (5, 26) 11 (5, 24)
post_p 0.2 (0.01, 0.45) 0.3 (0.08, 0.47) 0.2 (0.04, 0.45) 0.27 (0.04, 0.46) 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.32 (0.09, 0.49) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.36 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036) 0.021 (0.016, 0.033) 0.023 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.015, 0.04) 0.023 (0.016, 0.04) 0.021 (0.014, 0.039) 0.023 (0.015, 0.04)
Taxane_CT count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10) 9 (8, 10)
n 25 (22, 28) 9 (9, 9) 18 (16, 20) 11 (10, 12) 0 (0, 1) 2 (0, 3) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1)
post_p 0.38 (0.34, 0.41) 0.45 (0.45, 0.46) 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) 0.44 (0.41, 0.47) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.49 (0.49, 0.49) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.02, 0.028) 0.026 (0.023, 0.03) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
PARPi count 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288
time 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54)
n 35 (17, 100) 12 (6, 33) 24 (13, 68) 18 (9, 46) 15 (10, 28) 15 (9, 26) 12 (7, 21) 12 (7, 23)
post_p 0.26 (0.03, 0.46) 0.36 (0.14, 0.47) 0.31 (0.05, 0.47) 0.31 (0.06, 0.47) 0.31 (0.09, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.33 (0.08, 0.48) 0.36 (0.13, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.03) 0.021 (0.014, 0.038) 0.02 (0.015, 0.032) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034) 0.023 (0.012, 0.038) 0.022 (0.013, 0.035)
TP53- ARSi count 382 382 382 382
time 33 (17, 54) 33 (17, 54) 33 (17, 54) 33 (17, 54)
n 45 (27, 123) 15 (8, 40) 14 (6, 37) 13 (6, 36)
post_p 0.24 (0.02, 0.46) 0.37 (0.12, 0.48) 0.41 (0.15, 0.49) 0.41 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.027) 0.021 (0.013, 0.039) 0.021 (0.014, 0.041) 0.022 (0.015, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 2 2 2 2
time 18 (16, 20) 18 (16, 20) 18 (16, 20) 18 (16, 20)
n 45 (32, 58) 14 (14, 14) 8 (5, 12) 7 (4, 10)
post_p 0.48 (0.46, 0.49) 0.42 (0.37, 0.47) 0.34 (0.29, 0.39) 0.48 (0.46, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.012, 0.013) 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.033 (0.032, 0.034) 0.006 (0.001, 0.011)
PARPi count 398 398 398 398
time 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50) 28 (17, 50)
n 39 (18, 103) 13 (7, 37) 16 (10, 31) 16 (9, 28)
post_p 0.32 (0.06, 0.47) 0.41 (0.22, 0.49) 0.36 (0.13, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.029) 0.02 (0.013, 0.036) 0.02 (0.012, 0.033) 0.02 (0.012, 0.034)
TP53+ ARSi count 326 326 326 326
time 36 (24, 54) 36 (24, 54) 36 (24, 54) 36 (24, 54)
n 33 (16, 86) 25 (12, 64) 13 (6, 30) 13 (6, 28)
post_p 0.25 (0.05, 0.45) 0.29 (0.08, 0.47) 0.4 (0.2, 0.48) 0.43 (0.19, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.03) 0.021 (0.014, 0.031) 0.021 (0.015, 0.04) 0.02 (0.014, 0.038)
Taxane_CT count 4 4 4 4
time 18 (16, 21) 18 (16, 21) 18 (16, 21) 18 (16, 21)
n 26 (22, 33) 24 (18, 28) 4 (2, 10) 4 (3, 7)
post_p 0.43 (0.33, 0.45) 0.41 (0.39, 0.46) 0.46 (0.4, 0.49) 0.46 (0.4, 0.5)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.013, 0.019) 0.015 (0.005, 0.024) 0.016 (0, 0.042) 0.019 (0, 0.044)
PARPi count 359 359 359 359
time 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52)
n 28 (14, 76) 19 (10, 54) 12 (8, 21) 13 (8, 23)
post_p 0.35 (0.08, 0.48) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48) 0.38 (0.16, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.029) 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.022 (0.012, 0.035) 0.021 (0.012, 0.036)
HRD+ ARSi count 198 198 198 198
time 45 (32, 56) 45 (32, 56) 45 (32, 56) 45 (32, 56)
n 23 (8, 41) 18 (8, 39) 15 (7, 30) 14 (7, 29)
post_p 0.34 (0.09, 0.48) 0.34 (0.08, 0.49) 0.34 (0.11, 0.47) 0.36 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.033) 0.021 (0.015, 0.037) 0.021 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.015, 0.039)
Taxane_CT count 1 1 1 1
time 33 (33, 33) 33 (33, 33) 33 (33, 33) 33 (33, 33)
n 18 (18, 18) 26 (26, 26) 10 (10, 10) 11 (11, 11)
post_p 0.45 (0.45, 0.45) 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.34 (0.34, 0.34) 0.36 (0.36, 0.36)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.023 (0.023, 0.023) 0.021 (0.021, 0.021)
PARPi count 329 329 329 329
time 30 (19, 50) 30 (19, 50) 30 (19, 50) 30 (19, 50)
n 16 (11, 33) 17 (10, 28) 13 (8, 23) 13 (8, 24)
post_p 0.36 (0.12, 0.48) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.49) 0.41 (0.19, 0.49)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.012, 0.031) 0.02 (0.012, 0.033) 0.021 (0.012, 0.034) 0.02 (0.012, 0.034)
TEfus+ ARSi count 298 298 298 298
time 38 (26, 55) 38 (26, 55) 38 (26, 55) 38 (26, 55)
n 17 (9, 40) 26 (12, 64) 14 (7, 38) 13 (6, 27)
post_p 0.33 (0.09, 0.47) 0.3 (0.06, 0.47) 0.37 (0.15, 0.49) 0.41 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.021 (0.015, 0.032) 0.021 (0.015, 0.035) 0.021 (0.015, 0.037)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3
time 23 (18, 23) 23 (18, 23) 23 (18, 23) 23 (18, 23)
n 14 (13, 27) 24 (15, 25) 5 (3, 9) 8 (8, 9)
post_p 0.42 (0.4, 0.44) 0.39 (0.38, 0.41) 0.47 (0.45, 0.48) 0.41 (0.4, 0.46)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.015, 0.024) 0.015 (0.011, 0.019) 0.027 (0.025, 0.028) 0.027 (0.016, 0.033)
PARPi count 336 336 336 336
time 32 (22, 52) 32 (22, 52) 32 (22, 52) 32 (22, 52)
n 14 (7, 38) 20 (11, 56) 16 (10, 28) 13 (8, 24)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.35 (0.09, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.37 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.013, 0.038) 0.02 (0.015, 0.032) 0.02 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034)