Setting description

Treatments equally effective across the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 8 7 5
TP53- 10 13 10
TP53+ 21 25 17
HRD+ 20 22 8
TEfus+ 12 11 15
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.016 0.014 0.010
TP53- 0.020 0.026 0.020
TP53+ 0.042 0.050 0.034
HRD+ 0.040 0.044 0.016
TEfus+ 0.024 0.022 0.030
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 23 35 38
TP53- 167 145 167
TP53+ 130 159 162
HRD+ 84 78 148
TEfus+ 133 136 147
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.046 0.070 0.076
TP53- 0.334 0.290 0.334
TP53+ 0.260 0.318 0.324
HRD+ 0.168 0.156 0.296
TEfus+ 0.266 0.272 0.294
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 58 69 51
TP53+ 14 10 10
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.116 0.138 0.102
TP53+ 0.028 0.020 0.020
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.306.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.118     0.140     0.080

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 8 7 5
futility 0 23 35 38
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 706 (639, 752) 342 (202, 484) 356 (196, 493) 350 (198, 485)
n_unique 706 (639, 752) 342 (202, 484) 356 (196, 493) 350 (198, 485)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (23, 56) 32 (7, 49) 34 (20, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.08, 0.87) 0.47 (0.08, 0.89) 0.52 (0.09, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024)
TP53- graduation 0 10 13 10
futility 0 167 145 167
max_n 0 58 69 51
n 386 (337, 426) 194 (72, 300) 200 (65, 301) 191 (71, 300)
n_unique 386 (337, 426) 194 (72, 300) 200 (65, 301) 191 (71, 300)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (26, 60) 60 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53) 29 (18, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.07, 0.85) 0.46 (0.09, 0.9) 0.47 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53+ graduation 0 21 25 17
futility 0 130 159 162
max_n 0 14 10 10
n 318 (277, 351) 154 (64, 247) 150 (61, 247) 162 (63, 249)
n_unique 318 (277, 351) 154 (64, 247) 150 (61, 247) 162 (63, 249)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (24, 60) 60 (25, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (22, 51) 33 (18, 54) 35 (20, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.11, 0.89) 0.48 (0.08, 0.88) 0.54 (0.11, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025)
HRD+ graduation 0 20 22 8
futility 0 84 78 148
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 192 (159, 218) 91 (50, 138) 92 (48, 141) 98 (52, 152)
n_unique 192 (159, 218) 91 (50, 138) 92 (48, 141) 98 (52, 152)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (44, 60) 60 (46, 60) 60 (27, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (32, 56) 46 (33, 57) 32 (20, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.87) 0.47 (0.1, 0.9) 0.5 (0.1, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 12 11 15
futility 0 133 136 147
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 256 (219, 286) 125 (58, 190) 121 (56, 195) 124 (59, 204)
n_unique 256 (219, 286) 125 (58, 190) 121 (56, 195) 124 (59, 204)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (32, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (26, 54) 37 (22, 55) 34 (23, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.08, 0.85) 0.47 (0.09, 0.85) 0.5 (0.1, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 185 174 185
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 58 69 50
n 215 (178, 245) 98 (34, 194) 103 (28, 195) 92 (27, 183)
n_unique 215 (178, 245) 98 (34, 194) 103 (28, 195) 92 (27, 183)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.1, 0.88) 0.46 (0.1, 0.87) 0.47 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027)
–+ graduation 0 255 247 253
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 57 65 50
n 63 (48, 76) 25 (9, 57) 28 (10, 60) 25 (9, 59)
n_unique 63 (48, 76) 25 (9, 57) 28 (10, 60) 25 (9, 59)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.12, 0.87) 0.45 (0.1, 0.85) 0.48 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036)
-+- graduation 0 158 204 187
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 14 10 10
n 137 (114, 160) 59 (19, 125) 56 (22, 131) 65 (19, 126)
n_unique 137 (114, 160) 59 (19, 125) 56 (22, 131) 65 (19, 126)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.11, 0.88) 0.46 (0.11, 0.87) 0.48 (0.13, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029)
-++ graduation 0 241 277 267
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 14 10 10
n 98 (76, 117) 45 (15, 92) 39 (17, 93) 44 (13, 90)
n_unique 98 (76, 117) 45 (15, 92) 39 (17, 93) 44 (13, 90)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.12, 0.85) 0.46 (0.12, 0.86) 0.49 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031)
+– graduation 0 240 225 255
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 58 65 48
n 54 (41, 67) 25 (8, 51) 24 (7, 50) 23 (11, 53)
n_unique 54 (41, 67) 25 (8, 51) 24 (7, 50) 23 (11, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.1, 0.84) 0.48 (0.12, 0.86) 0.44 (0.13, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.023 (0.017, 0.034)
+-+ graduation 0 294 281 306
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 57 61 48
n 55 (39, 68) 23 (7, 48) 23 (7, 48) 22 (12, 54)
n_unique 55 (39, 68) 23 (7, 48) 23 (7, 48) 22 (12, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.12, 0.88) 0.49 (0.14, 0.87) 0.48 (0.11, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.023 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032)
++- graduation 0 220 257 257
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 13 9 10
n 42 (30, 53) 19 (7, 38) 19 (6, 38) 18 (9, 41)
n_unique 42 (30, 53) 19 (7, 38) 19 (6, 38) 18 (9, 41)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.13, 0.85) 0.49 (0.13, 0.85) 0.47 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)
+++ graduation 0 287 318 314
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 13 9 10
n 41 (29, 51) 17 (6, 39) 16 (5, 38) 18 (9, 40)
n_unique 41 (29, 51) 17 (6, 39) 16 (5, 38) 18 (9, 40)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.13, 0.84) 0.47 (0.12, 0.83) 0.48 (0.13, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.038) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 8 7 5
time_stop 30 (23, 46) 33 (25, 48) 45 (29, 49)
n_trt 214 (146, 359) 255 (194, 356) 270 (176, 439)
n_control 298 (248, 512) 359 (245, 519) 534 (343, 574)
post_p 0.99 (0.89, 1) 0.98 (0.96, 0.99) 0.99 (0.95, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2.6) 1 (1, 1.4) 2 (1, 2)
TP53- count 10 13 10
time_stop 41 (21, 52) 40 (27, 55) 48 (35, 57)
n_trt 178 (103, 262) 154 (93, 264) 174 (115, 300)
n_control 254 (120, 333) 221 (145, 328) 298 (210, 374)
post_p 0.97 (0.88, 1) 0.97 (0.89, 0.99) 0.98 (0.93, 1)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1.8) 2 (1, 3.2)
TP53+ count 21 25 17
time_stop 36 (27, 44) 47 (28, 56) 41 (24, 57)
n_trt 115 (79, 170) 148 (106, 218) 166 (84, 228)
n_control 175 (110, 238) 228 (133, 279) 216 (112, 298)
post_p 0.96 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.94, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 2.4)
HRD+ count 20 22 8
time_stop 43 (29, 56) 40 (33, 56) 43 (32, 54)
n_trt 80 (56, 131) 82 (58, 118) 86 (64, 123)
n_control 130 (91, 189) 117 (88, 178) 152 (106, 187)
post_p 0.97 (0.89, 0.99) 0.98 (0.93, 1) 0.97 (0.91, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 4)
TEfus+ count 12 11 15
time_stop 38 (27, 52) 41 (32, 47) 48 (33, 58)
n_trt 86 (74, 122) 125 (81, 154) 123 (98, 181)
n_control 156 (107, 211) 158 (129, 194) 189 (151, 258)
post_p 0.97 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.9, 1) 0.98 (0.93, 1)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1.6)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 23 35 38
time_stop 37 (25, 56) 31 (7, 50) 33 (19, 49)
n_trt 155 (113, 341) 140 (54, 294) 172 (102, 313)
n_control 407 (256, 709) 345 (72, 649) 374 (192, 558)
post_p 0.04 (0.01, 0.2) 0.06 (0, 0.21) 0.05 (0.02, 0.2)
order 3 (1.2, 6) 3 (1, 7.2) 4 (1.7, 7)
TP53- count 167 145 167
time_stop 34 (18, 53) 32 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52)
n_trt 97 (54, 228) 91 (52, 212) 95 (55, 190)
n_control 211 (92, 338) 187 (95, 339) 168 (97, 336)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.26) 0.12 (0.02, 0.26) 0.16 (0.04, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4.6) 2 (1, 5)
TP53+ count 130 159 162
time_stop 34 (22, 52) 31 (17, 53) 33 (20, 52)
n_trt 80 (51, 152) 83 (52, 168) 87 (52, 162)
n_control 173 (103, 275) 159 (79, 294) 164 (88, 277)
post_p 0.14 (0.04, 0.26) 0.16 (0.04, 0.26) 0.16 (0.04, 0.25)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5)
HRD+ count 84 78 148
time_stop 46 (33, 56) 47 (33, 57) 32 (20, 53)
n_trt 67 (52, 109) 68 (51, 108) 62 (51, 99)
n_control 140 (99, 179) 150 (95, 187) 94 (56, 171)
post_p 0.09 (0.02, 0.23) 0.11 (0.03, 0.25) 0.16 (0.05, 0.28)
order 3.5 (2, 7) 4 (2, 7) 2 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 133 136 147
time_stop 36 (26, 54) 37 (22, 55) 33 (23, 51)
n_trt 68 (53, 130) 74 (51, 130) 74 (51, 131)
n_control 151 (95, 236) 146 (80, 235) 131 (81, 215)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.27) 0.12 (0.03, 0.26) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
time 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46)
n 64 (36, 109) 21 (14, 34) 44 (25, 55) 30 (24, 67) 18 (10, 24) 11 (9, 26) 10 (7, 15) 18 (8, 28)
post_p 0.79 (0.59, 0.89) 0.66 (0.56, 0.83) 0.77 (0.62, 0.82) 0.75 (0.64, 0.87) 0.63 (0.57, 0.7) 0.65 (0.56, 0.75) 0.62 (0.56, 0.83) 0.68 (0.58, 0.86)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.021) 0.009 (0.007, 0.017) 0.015 (0.01, 0.019) 0.014 (0.006, 0.017) 0.015 (0.005, 0.021) 0.009 (0, 0.019) 0.003 (0, 0.013) 0.011 (0, 0.015)
Taxane_CT count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
time 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48)
n 72 (43, 118) 31 (21, 40) 54 (38, 83) 39 (22, 52) 18 (11, 31) 18 (7, 33) 16 (9, 22) 11 (7, 24)
post_p 0.68 (0.57, 0.94) 0.62 (0.58, 0.79) 0.73 (0.62, 0.8) 0.62 (0.56, 0.89) 0.74 (0.66, 0.88) 0.67 (0.58, 0.87) 0.61 (0.57, 0.7) 0.61 (0.56, 0.67)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.012, 0.021) 0.015 (0.006, 0.019) 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.018 (0.011, 0.021) 0.015 (0.003, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.017) 0.016 (0.006, 0.021) 0.012 (0, 0.018)
PARPi count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49)
n 113 (29, 172) 30 (12, 37) 40 (30, 75) 30 (14, 47) 18 (10, 27) 23 (13, 36) 20 (16, 32) 25 (18, 31)
post_p 0.72 (0.62, 0.87) 0.63 (0.59, 0.81) 0.64 (0.6, 0.85) 0.72 (0.56, 0.81) 0.61 (0.6, 0.71) 0.62 (0.56, 0.83) 0.79 (0.77, 0.9) 0.75 (0.67, 0.81)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.016 (0.009, 0.018) 0.018 (0.011, 0.02) 0.018 (0.005, 0.021) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02) 0.016 (0.013, 0.019) 0.013 (0.013, 0.016) 0.013 (0.01, 0.02)
TP53- ARSi count 10 10 10 10
time 41 (21, 52) 41 (21, 52) 41 (21, 52) 41 (21, 52)
n 100 (54, 169) 27 (14, 38) 21 (8, 45) 16 (10, 37)
post_p 0.78 (0.77, 0.99) 0.76 (0.7, 0.86) 0.7 (0.61, 0.86) 0.74 (0.61, 0.88)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.019) 0.015 (0, 0.018) 0.013 (0, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.018)
Taxane_CT count 13 13 13 13
time 40 (27, 55) 40 (27, 55) 40 (27, 55) 40 (27, 55)
n 75 (45, 156) 33 (19, 45) 23 (5, 36) 23 (11, 45)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.89) 0.81 (0.72, 0.88) 0.72 (0.61, 0.82) 0.75 (0.67, 0.81)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.014 (0.008, 0.018) 0.011 (0.001, 0.02) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017)
PARPi count 10 10 10 10
time 48 (35, 57) 48 (35, 57) 48 (35, 57) 48 (35, 57)
n 88 (54, 168) 24 (15, 56) 30 (16, 49) 28 (18, 44)
post_p 0.78 (0.72, 0.94) 0.8 (0.74, 0.9) 0.77 (0.71, 0.93) 0.77 (0.73, 0.84)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.02) 0.014 (0.008, 0.017) 0.016 (0.013, 0.022) 0.018 (0.011, 0.022)
TP53+ ARSi count 21 21 21 21
time 36 (27, 44) 36 (27, 44) 36 (27, 44) 36 (27, 44)
n 43 (25, 65) 41 (23, 66) 12 (7, 24) 18 (8, 30)
post_p 0.76 (0.7, 0.87) 0.8 (0.73, 0.91) 0.72 (0.64, 0.78) 0.74 (0.66, 0.82)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.019) 0.012 (0.007, 0.017) 0.009 (0, 0.015) 0.011 (0, 0.018)
Taxane_CT count 25 25 25 25
time 47 (28, 56) 47 (28, 56) 47 (28, 56) 47 (28, 56)
n 66 (42, 97) 42 (30, 66) 19 (8, 35) 17 (9, 33)
post_p 0.82 (0.74, 0.96) 0.79 (0.71, 0.95) 0.75 (0.65, 0.87) 0.8 (0.67, 0.89)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.02) 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.012 (0, 0.017) 0.013 (0.002, 0.019)
PARPi count 17 17 17 17
time 41 (24, 57) 41 (24, 57) 41 (24, 57) 41 (24, 57)
n 64 (29, 94) 53 (23, 81) 21 (12, 33) 22 (11, 35)
post_p 0.84 (0.73, 0.9) 0.79 (0.73, 0.92) 0.8 (0.73, 0.89) 0.72 (0.7, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.018) 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.015 (0.007, 0.019) 0.015 (0.011, 0.02)
HRD+ ARSi count 20 20 20 20
time 43 (29, 56) 43 (29, 56) 43 (29, 56) 43 (29, 56)
n 22 (15, 42) 20 (15, 39) 22 (8, 36) 15 (8, 32)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.91) 0.82 (0.71, 0.92) 0.72 (0.64, 0.81) 0.71 (0.62, 0.81)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.007, 0.018) 0.011 (0.003, 0.016) 0.013 (0.005, 0.018) 0.013 (0.005, 0.019)
Taxane_CT count 22 22 22 22
time 40 (33, 56) 40 (33, 56) 40 (33, 56) 40 (33, 56)
n 24 (10, 34) 22 (13, 38) 14 (9, 24) 17 (10, 29)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.93) 0.76 (0.71, 0.9) 0.76 (0.64, 0.91) 0.75 (0.65, 0.85)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.007, 0.018) 0.013 (0.008, 0.021) 0.011 (0.006, 0.016) 0.011 (0, 0.017)
PARPi count 8 8 8 8
time 43 (32, 54) 43 (32, 54) 43 (32, 54) 43 (32, 54)
n 23 (11, 36) 20 (16, 30) 16 (12, 32) 30 (14, 36)
post_p 0.75 (0.68, 0.8) 0.83 (0.72, 0.89) 0.77 (0.68, 0.81) 0.77 (0.73, 0.86)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.013 (0.008, 0.018) 0.015 (0.01, 0.018) 0.014 (0.011, 0.02)
TEfus+ ARSi count 12 12 12 12
time 38 (27, 52) 38 (27, 52) 38 (27, 52) 38 (27, 52)
n 24 (14, 47) 32 (18, 47) 18 (9, 25) 16 (9, 23)
post_p 0.77 (0.74, 0.89) 0.74 (0.71, 0.84) 0.74 (0.62, 0.82) 0.77 (0.63, 0.91)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.007, 0.016) 0.016 (0.01, 0.019) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Taxane_CT count 11 11 11 11
time 41 (32, 47) 41 (32, 47) 41 (32, 47) 41 (32, 47)
n 29 (14, 35) 46 (23, 63) 29 (8, 46) 15 (5, 26)
post_p 0.79 (0.75, 0.95) 0.81 (0.73, 0.85) 0.73 (0.65, 0.94) 0.71 (0.62, 0.93)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.003, 0.022) 0.016 (0.006, 0.018) 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) 0.008 (0.004, 0.014)
PARPi count 15 15 15 15
time 48 (33, 58) 48 (33, 58) 48 (33, 58) 48 (33, 58)
n 37 (11, 51) 45 (25, 69) 31 (18, 49) 25 (12, 37)
post_p 0.88 (0.75, 0.94) 0.78 (0.7, 0.94) 0.75 (0.71, 0.87) 0.79 (0.7, 0.87)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.01, 0.017) 0.015 (0.011, 0.02) 0.018 (0.011, 0.023) 0.016 (0.011, 0.019)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
time 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56)
n 49 (24, 145) 14 (8, 34) 24 (12, 45) 20 (10, 36) 12 (4, 29) 10 (7, 25) 7 (2, 17) 8 (4, 20)
post_p 0.36 (0.13, 0.45) 0.39 (0.17, 0.49) 0.34 (0.07, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.47) 0.36 (0.17, 0.49) 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.39 (0.11, 0.49) 0.37 (0.15, 0.5)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.025 (0.018, 0.031) 0.024 (0.018, 0.031) 0.024 (0.015, 0.029) 0.024 (0.014, 0.065) 0.032 (0.017, 0.04) 0.028 (0.016, 0.057) 0.027 (0.017, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
time 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50)
n 30 (13, 109) 12 (6, 26) 26 (17, 63) 20 (12, 49) 10 (1, 25) 7 (2, 23) 6 (0, 21) 7 (0, 20)
post_p 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.36 (0.12, 0.47) 0.39 (0.09, 0.46) 0.38 (0.14, 0.49) 0.42 (0.15, 0.48) 0.44 (0.21, 0.49) 0.45 (0.2, 0.49) 0.38 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.033) 0.027 (0.018, 0.064) 0.024 (0.016, 0.031) 0.024 (0.018, 0.033) 0.026 (0.015, 0.048) 0.022 (0, 0.04) 0.027 (0, 0.053) 0.026 (0.013, 0.048)
PARPi count 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
time 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49)
n 40 (14, 101) 15 (7, 30) 28 (13, 87) 18 (11, 53) 13 (8, 31) 14 (10, 28) 12 (6, 15) 12 (6, 22)
post_p 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.34 (0.19, 0.49) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.39 (0.16, 0.49) 0.39 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.21, 0.48) 0.35 (0.16, 0.49) 0.4 (0.23, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.032) 0.025 (0.017, 0.036) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.024 (0.016, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.034) 0.024 (0.013, 0.037) 0.023 (0.014, 0.035)
TP53- ARSi count 167 167 167 167
time 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53)
n 46 (29, 144) 15 (7, 40) 13 (6, 35) 12 (6, 34)
post_p 0.3 (0.12, 0.46) 0.38 (0.15, 0.48) 0.41 (0.17, 0.49) 0.41 (0.16, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.024 (0.016, 0.038) 0.025 (0.017, 0.044) 0.025 (0.016, 0.045)
Taxane_CT count 145 145 145 145
time 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52)
n 45 (22, 136) 17 (9, 39) 12 (6, 30) 12 (6, 30)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.46) 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.42 (0.22, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.029) 0.024 (0.016, 0.038) 0.025 (0.017, 0.043) 0.026 (0.017, 0.049)
PARPi count 167 167 167 167
time 28 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52)
n 43 (19, 115) 14 (7, 31) 16 (10, 32) 16 (11, 28)
post_p 0.37 (0.11, 0.47) 0.39 (0.21, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.49) 0.37 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.03) 0.025 (0.018, 0.043) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035)
TP53+ ARSi count 130 130 130 130
time 34 (22, 52) 34 (22, 52) 34 (22, 52) 34 (22, 52)
n 30 (16, 71) 22 (11, 58) 11 (4, 28) 9 (5, 22)
post_p 0.34 (0.11, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.43 (0.24, 0.49) 0.42 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.024 (0.018, 0.033) 0.026 (0.016, 0.044) 0.026 (0.017, 0.049)
Taxane_CT count 159 159 159 159
time 31 (17, 53) 31 (17, 53) 31 (17, 53) 31 (17, 53)
n 34 (20, 82) 26 (15, 61) 9 (4, 25) 8 (4, 23)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.46) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.44 (0.21, 0.49) 0.43 (0.18, 0.5)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.014, 0.03) 0.025 (0.014, 0.044) 0.027 (0.016, 0.049)
PARPi count 162 162 162 162
time 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52)
n 30 (15, 85) 22 (11, 59) 12 (7, 26) 13 (8, 23)
post_p 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.4 (0.14, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035) 0.024 (0.015, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.039)
HRD+ ARSi count 84 84 84 84
time 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56)
n 19 (8, 40) 20 (10, 38) 13 (5, 31) 12 (6, 26)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.34 (0.15, 0.46) 0.37 (0.17, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.018, 0.04) 0.023 (0.018, 0.038) 0.026 (0.018, 0.043) 0.025 (0.019, 0.038)
Taxane_CT count 78 78 78 78
time 47 (33, 57) 47 (33, 57) 47 (33, 57) 47 (33, 57)
n 20 (9, 36) 19 (8, 37) 14 (7, 30) 14 (6, 30)
post_p 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.39 (0.12, 0.49) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.36 (0.1, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.038) 0.024 (0.018, 0.036) 0.026 (0.019, 0.042) 0.027 (0.019, 0.041)
PARPi count 148 148 148 148
time 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53)
n 16 (11, 35) 18 (11, 33) 13 (7, 25) 13 (8, 24)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.39 (0.14, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.013, 0.033) 0.023 (0.014, 0.035) 0.023 (0.014, 0.034)
TEfus+ ARSi count 133 133 133 133
time 36 (26, 54) 36 (26, 54) 36 (26, 54) 36 (26, 54)
n 17 (9, 40) 24 (11, 64) 14 (7, 32) 11 (5, 23)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.49) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.35 (0.14, 0.47) 0.41 (0.18, 0.49)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.017, 0.039) 0.024 (0.018, 0.033) 0.025 (0.018, 0.043) 0.027 (0.016, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 136 136 136 136
time 37 (22, 55) 37 (22, 55) 37 (22, 55) 37 (22, 55)
n 17 (9, 41) 28 (17, 68) 14 (7, 33) 10 (4, 24)
post_p 0.36 (0.11, 0.47) 0.3 (0.09, 0.48) 0.38 (0.14, 0.49) 0.41 (0.13, 0.49)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.015, 0.037) 0.024 (0.017, 0.031) 0.026 (0.016, 0.043) 0.027 (0.017, 0.047)
PARPi count 147 147 147 147
time 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51)
n 15 (7, 35) 24 (12, 58) 17 (11, 35) 14 (8, 26)
post_p 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.47) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.017, 0.041) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037)