Setting description

Several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures: (ARSi, TP53- & AR-); (Taxane_CT, TEfus+); (Platinum_CT and PARPi, HRD+)

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.102, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.103, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.11, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.11, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 9.6, median = 6.9 mean = 9.5, median = 6.8 mean = 8.9, median = 6.4 mean = 8.9, median = 6.4
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.35, hr = 0.73 af = 1.34, hr = 0.74 af = 1.25, hr = 0.79 af = 1.25, hr = 0.79
TP53- & AR- param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.048, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.114, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.113, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.113, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 20.5, median = 14.8 mean = 8.6, median = 6.2 mean = 8.7, median = 6.2 mean = 8.7, median = 6.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 2.89, hr = 0.33 af = 1.21, hr = 0.82 af = 1.22, hr = 0.81 af = 1.22, hr = 0.81
TP53+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.095, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.111, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.111, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 10.3, median = 7.4 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.45, hr = 0.68 af = 1.24, hr = 0.8 af = 1.24, hr = 0.8
HRD+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.116, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.095, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 8.5, median = 6.1 mean = 10.3, median = 7.4 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.19, hr = 0.83 af = 1.45, hr = 0.68 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
TEfus+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.118, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.042, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.1, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.1, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 8.3, median = 6 mean = 23.5, median = 16.9 mean = 9.8, median = 7.1 mean = 9.8, median = 7.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.17, hr = 0.85 af = 3.31, hr = 0.28 af = 1.38, hr = 0.71 af = 1.38, hr = 0.71



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
—- param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
—+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.05, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 19.4, median = 14 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 2.73, hr = 0.35 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+- param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–++ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+– param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.076, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 12.9, median = 9.3 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.82, hr = 0.53 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
-+-+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.076, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.047, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 12.9, median = 9.3 mean = 21, median = 15.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.82, hr = 0.53 af = 2.96, hr = 0.32 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
-++- param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
-+++ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.047, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 21, median = 15.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 2.96, hr = 0.32 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
+— param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+–+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+- param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-++ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++– param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
++-+ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.058, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 17, median = 12.2 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 2.39, hr = 0.4 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
+++- param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24
++++ param scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.138, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.058, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.036, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 7.1, median = 5.1 mean = 17, median = 12.2 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7 mean = 27.4, median = 19.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 2.39, hr = 0.4 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24 af = 3.86, hr = 0.24

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 13 5 3 2
TP53- & AR- 223 2 6 1
TP53+ 1 24 6 6
HRD+ 0 0 191 181
TEfus+ 0 127 2 2
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0.026 0.010 0.006 0.004
TP53- & AR- 0.446 0.004 0.012 0.002
TP53+ 0.002 0.048 0.012 0.012
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.382 0.362
TEfus+ 0.000 0.254 0.004 0.004
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 4 0 0 0
TP53- & AR- 2 60 34 31
TP53+ 189 0 2 1
HRD+ 108 16 0 0
TEfus+ 143 0 3 4
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- & AR- 0.004 0.120 0.068 0.062
TP53+ 0.378 0.000 0.004 0.002
HRD+ 0.216 0.032 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.286 0.000 0.006 0.008
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0 0
TP53- & AR- 110 8 21 28
TP53+ 1 40 8 4
HRD+ 0 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 17 1 0
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- & AR- 0.220 0.016 0.042 0.056
TP53+ 0.002 0.080 0.016 0.008
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.034 0.002 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.078.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

       ARSi   Taxane_CT Platinum_CT       PARPi 
      0.020       0.036       0.018       0.008 

The overall power was 0.86.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

       ARSi   Taxane_CT Platinum_CT       PARPi 
      0.446       0.254       0.382       0.362 

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 13 5 3 2
futility 0 4 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 442 (414, 474) 192 (92, 255) 194 (115, 260) 164 (116, 245) 170 (127, 245)
n_unique 405 (379, 434) 179 (86, 241) 180 (104, 243) 151 (107, 230) 157 (116, 230)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 4 (4, 6) 5 (5, 6) 6 (5, 7) 7 (6, 8)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.39, 1) 1 (0.83, 1) 0.97 (0.55, 1) 0.97 (0.53, 1)
rate 0.095 (0.088, 0.103) 0.069 (0.056, 0.094) 0.068 (0.058, 0.083) 0.075 (0.062, 0.09) 0.075 (0.061, 0.091)
TP53- & AR- graduation 0 223 2 6 1
futility 0 2 60 34 31
max_n 0 110 8 21 28
n 191 (171, 210) 126 (26, 152) 46 (25, 102) 49 (28, 129) 52 (31, 138)
n_unique 176 (157, 194) 121 (25, 146) 42 (23, 97) 44 (26, 122) 48 (28, 131)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (7, 36) 36 (31, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 9 (7, 16) 20 (12, 34) 16 (12, 23) 16 (13, 26)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.98, 1) 0.48 (0.04, 0.92) 0.65 (0.04, 0.97) 0.63 (0.02, 0.98)
rate 0.077 (0.068, 0.087) 0.039 (0.031, 0.047) 0.076 (0.055, 0.109) 0.07 (0.051, 0.102) 0.071 (0.048, 0.103)
TP53+ graduation 0 1 24 6 6
futility 0 189 0 2 1
max_n 0 1 40 8 4
n 191 (171, 214) 61 (27, 99) 108 (54, 146) 81 (50, 119) 82 (55, 116)
n_unique 175 (156, 195) 57 (25, 94) 100 (50, 138) 74 (46, 111) 76 (50, 107)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (15, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 20 (11, 32) 11 (9, 19) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 21)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.06 (0, 0.35) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.96 (0.68, 1) 0.98 (0.63, 1)
rate 0.112 (0.099, 0.126) 0.142 (0.122, 0.181) 0.064 (0.051, 0.08) 0.08 (0.062, 0.101) 0.08 (0.062, 0.101)
HRD+ graduation 0 0 0 191 181
futility 0 108 16 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 110 (96, 129) 27 (18, 43) 40 (23, 59) 74 (33, 101) 77 (41, 98)
n_unique 100 (86, 116) 25 (16, 40) 37 (20, 55) 70 (31, 94) 71 (38, 92)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (27, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (17, 36) 36 (19, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 27 (20, 35) 26 (20, 32) 25 (13, 35) 25 (14, 35)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.2 (0.03, 0.67) 0.82 (0.34, 0.98) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.105 (0.089, 0.122) 0.118 (0.09, 0.162) 0.079 (0.06, 0.103) 0.035 (0.028, 0.044) 0.035 (0.028, 0.043)
TEfus+ graduation 0 0 127 2 2
futility 0 143 0 3 4
max_n 0 0 17 1 0
n 160 (141, 179) 39 (25, 63) 116 (35, 140) 61 (41, 91) 62 (42, 91)
n_unique 146 (128, 162) 35 (22, 59) 108 (32, 131) 56 (38, 85) 57 (38, 85)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (20, 36) 36 (13, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 23 (16, 32) 15 (10, 30) 12 (10, 19) 12 (12, 20)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.07 (0.01, 0.43) 1 (1, 1) 0.83 (0.32, 0.99) 0.86 (0.36, 0.99)
rate 0.08 (0.071, 0.091) 0.108 (0.082, 0.137) 0.038 (0.032, 0.045) 0.064 (0.05, 0.084) 0.063 (0.048, 0.081)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
—- graduation 0 239 67 43 34
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 110 8 21 28
n 127 (110, 144) 104 (21, 127) 15 (7, 74) 15 (7, 90) 15 (7, 98)
n_unique 119 (103, 136) 98 (21, 122) 13 (6, 71) 13 (6, 86) 14 (6, 94)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.06 (0, 0.19) 0.05 (0, 0.19) 0.06 (0, 0.19)
rate 0.078 (0.067, 0.092) 0.035 (0.029, 0.044) 0.146 (0.111, 0.239) 0.147 (0.112, 0.264) 0.148 (0.114, 0.246)
—+ graduation 0 318 185 48 39
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 109 24 22 28
n 22 (16, 29) 5 (2, 19) 16 (4, 26) 5 (3, 12) 5 (3, 14)
n_unique 20 (14, 27) 5 (2, 18) 14 (4, 24) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.61 (0.3, 0.89) 0.84 (0.46, 0.98) 0.16 (0.05, 0.36) 0.16 (0.05, 0.35)
rate 0.056 (0.038, 0.083) 0.051 (0.026, 0.101) 0.037 (0.021, 0.067) 0.149 (0.089, 0.322) 0.157 (0.089, 0.345)
–+- graduation 0 207 29 11 9
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 40 8 4
n 63 (51, 78) 22 (8, 58) 22 (7, 54) 22 (7, 55) 24 (8, 53)
n_unique 58 (45, 72) 20 (8, 56) 21 (6, 52) 20 (6, 53) 23 (7, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.12, 0.89) 0.42 (0.1, 0.87) 0.43 (0.11, 0.86) 0.43 (0.11, 0.85)
rate 0.141 (0.119, 0.167) 0.147 (0.115, 0.242) 0.149 (0.115, 0.258) 0.15 (0.116, 0.286) 0.147 (0.115, 0.265)
–++ graduation 0 283 145 16 14
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 53 9 4
n 48 (38, 57) 7 (3, 17) 42 (13, 53) 9 (4, 24) 8 (4, 22)
n_unique 44 (34, 53) 6 (3, 16) 39 (12, 50) 7 (3, 22) 7 (3, 21)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.17 (0.06, 0.42) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.18 (0.05, 0.42) 0.16 (0.05, 0.41)
rate 0.084 (0.065, 0.109) 0.153 (0.103, 0.319) 0.035 (0.025, 0.048) 0.149 (0.1, 0.27) 0.158 (0.103, 0.344)
-+– graduation 0 294 79 225 205
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 107 8 21 25
n 20 (14, 27) 3 (0, 11) 5 (2, 10) 12 (5, 23) 14 (5, 23)
n_unique 18 (13, 25) 3 (0, 10) 4 (2, 9) 12 (4, 22) 13 (4, 22)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.51 (0.26, 0.84) 0.25 (0.11, 0.47) 0.93 (0.64, 1) 0.94 (0.69, 1)
rate 0.108 (0.076, 0.151) 0.078 (0.036, 0.188) 0.155 (0.093, 0.356) 0.037 (0.021, 0.066) 0.036 (0.02, 0.062)
-+-+ graduation 0 349 196 229 208
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 106 24 22 25
n 20 (14, 26) 3 (0, 9) 7 (2, 17) 12 (4, 23) 12 (4, 21)
n_unique 18 (12, 24) 3 (0, 9) 7 (2, 16) 11 (3, 21) 11 (4, 21)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.16, 0.65) 0.61 (0.3, 0.89) 0.78 (0.42, 0.96) 0.79 (0.43, 0.97)
rate 0.074 (0.05, 0.105) 0.083 (0.042, 0.236) 0.047 (0.024, 0.107) 0.036 (0.019, 0.068) 0.036 (0.02, 0.066)
-++- graduation 0 271 43 195 185
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 40 7 4
n 11 (7, 16) 3 (1, 7) 4 (1, 7) 8 (3, 14) 8 (3, 14)
n_unique 10 (7, 15) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 7) 7 (2, 13) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.2, 0.56) 0.34 (0.19, 0.58) 0.9 (0.58, 0.98) 0.9 (0.63, 0.99)
rate 0.145 (0.094, 0.23) 0.165 (0.089, 0.492) 0.166 (0.087, 0.491) 0.038 (0.016, 0.084) 0.036 (0.014, 0.07)
-+++ graduation 0 328 158 199 188
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 53 8 4
n 12 (7, 17) 3 (1, 6) 5 (1, 10) 7 (2, 14) 7 (3, 13)
n_unique 11 (6, 15) 2 (1, 5) 4 (1, 9) 6 (2, 13) 7 (2, 12)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.32 (0.15, 0.45) 0.61 (0.35, 0.86) 0.75 (0.42, 0.94) 0.76 (0.44, 0.94)
rate 0.091 (0.054, 0.161) 0.171 (0.08, 0.584) 0.048 (0.017, 0.141) 0.037 (0.014, 0.088) 0.034 (0.014, 0.078)
+— graduation 0 17 5 3 2
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 20 (14, 27) 9 (3, 18) 10 (4, 20) 8 (3, 17) 8 (3, 17)
n_unique 18 (12, 25) 8 (2, 17) 9 (4, 18) 7 (2, 16) 7 (2, 15)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.17, 0.84) 0.45 (0.17, 0.85) 0.44 (0.18, 0.82) 0.42 (0.18, 0.82)
rate 0.141 (0.099, 0.188) 0.156 (0.099, 0.352) 0.15 (0.1, 0.305) 0.158 (0.096, 0.424) 0.159 (0.097, 0.377)
+–+ graduation 0 160 132 8 8
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 17 1 0
n 17 (12, 23) 5 (2, 10) 14 (4, 22) 5 (2, 10) 5 (2, 11)
n_unique 16 (11, 21) 4 (1, 9) 12 (4, 21) 4 (2, 9) 4 (2, 10)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.29 (0.13, 0.5) 0.94 (0.69, 1) 0.26 (0.13, 0.52) 0.27 (0.12, 0.5)
rate 0.084 (0.054, 0.129) 0.154 (0.09, 0.397) 0.035 (0.018, 0.066) 0.158 (0.088, 0.432) 0.165 (0.096, 0.427)
+-+- graduation 0 207 29 11 9
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 40 8 4
n 16 (10, 22) 5 (2, 14) 8 (3, 15) 7 (2, 15) 7 (2, 14)
n_unique 14 (9, 20) 5 (1, 14) 7 (3, 13) 7 (2, 14) 6 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.21, 0.81) 0.48 (0.19, 0.83) 0.49 (0.2, 0.82) 0.45 (0.2, 0.82)
rate 0.143 (0.1, 0.209) 0.161 (0.098, 0.387) 0.149 (0.096, 0.337) 0.151 (0.091, 0.378) 0.152 (0.094, 0.416)
+-++ graduation 0 283 145 16 14
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 53 9 4
n 17 (11, 24) 4 (2, 9) 14 (3, 21) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11)
n_unique 15 (10, 22) 4 (1, 8) 13 (3, 20) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.29 (0.14, 0.51) 0.95 (0.73, 1) 0.27 (0.11, 0.5) 0.28 (0.12, 0.55)
rate 0.086 (0.053, 0.133) 0.17 (0.089, 0.428) 0.034 (0.018, 0.064) 0.163 (0.094, 0.421) 0.155 (0.091, 0.432)
++– graduation 0 125 21 194 183
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 11 (7, 17) 3 (1, 7) 4 (1, 6) 8 (2, 14) 8 (2, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 15) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6) 7 (2, 13) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.2, 0.58) 0.35 (0.17, 0.58) 0.89 (0.6, 0.99) 0.89 (0.58, 0.99)
rate 0.145 (0.094, 0.217) 0.163 (0.084, 0.427) 0.165 (0.08, 0.445) 0.034 (0.013, 0.081) 0.036 (0.015, 0.084)
++-+ graduation 0 230 146 198 187
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 17 1 0
n 11 (7, 17) 3 (1, 6) 4 (1, 10) 7 (2, 13) 7 (3, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 15) 3 (1, 6) 4 (1, 9) 6 (2, 12) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.3 (0.16, 0.47) 0.55 (0.31, 0.82) 0.78 (0.48, 0.95) 0.79 (0.47, 0.95)
rate 0.1 (0.061, 0.162) 0.155 (0.077, 0.467) 0.063 (0.029, 0.172) 0.035 (0.014, 0.082) 0.037 (0.016, 0.078)
+++- graduation 0 271 43 195 185
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 40 7 4
n 11 (7, 17) 3 (1, 7) 3 (1, 7) 7 (3, 14) 8 (2, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 15) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 7) 7 (2, 13) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.19, 0.6) 0.34 (0.18, 0.6) 0.87 (0.58, 0.99) 0.88 (0.6, 0.99)
rate 0.136 (0.091, 0.222) 0.162 (0.078, 0.49) 0.164 (0.077, 0.41) 0.037 (0.016, 0.08) 0.035 (0.016, 0.08)
++++ graduation 0 328 158 199 188
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 53 8 4
n 12 (7, 16) 3 (1, 6) 4 (1, 10) 7 (3, 14) 7 (3, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 15) 3 (0, 5) 4 (1, 9) 6 (2, 13) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.3 (0.15, 0.46) 0.58 (0.32, 0.83) 0.78 (0.48, 0.96) 0.8 (0.47, 0.96)
rate 0.1 (0.061, 0.166) 0.175 (0.085, 0.496) 0.059 (0.021, 0.141) 0.037 (0.018, 0.076) 0.035 (0.014, 0.081)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all count 13 5 3 2
time_stop 5 (4, 7) 5 (5, 6) 6 (5, 7) 7 (6, 8)
n_trt 29 (27, 53) 29 (26, 33) 29 (28, 35) 35 (28, 42)
n_control 57 (46, 73) 59 (51, 73) 57 (55, 65) 78 (68, 88)
post_p 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) 0.92 (0.87, 0.96) 0.99 (0.93, 0.99) 0.94 (0.9, 0.98)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TP53- & AR- count 223 2 6 1
time_stop 9 (7, 16) 15 (13, 17) 14 (14, 19) 11 (11, 11)
n_trt 31 (26, 63) 38 (31, 46) 30 (26, 32) 37 (37, 37)
n_control 39 (28, 73) 72 (62, 82) 70 (48, 84) 56 (56, 56)
post_p 0.94 (0.87, 1) 0.97 (0.96, 0.98) 0.94 (0.92, 0.98) 0.95 (0.95, 0.95)
order 1 (1, 2) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9) 2 (1, 2) 2 (2, 2)
TP53+ count 1 24 6 6
time_stop 7 (7, 7) 11 (9, 19) 12 (10, 16) 14 (10, 22)
n_trt 25 (25, 25) 34 (28, 55) 30 (26, 40) 40 (26, 66)
n_control 33 (33, 33) 53 (37, 84) 46 (43, 68) 70 (45, 112)
post_p 0.98 (0.98, 0.98) 0.99 (0.93, 1) 0.99 (0.95, 0.99) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 2) 1.5 (1, 2.5) 1.5 (1, 3)
HRD+ count 191 181
time_stop 25 (13, 35) 25 (14, 35)
n_trt 53 (27, 91) 59 (28, 85)
n_control 67 (33, 107) 75 (31, 102)
post_p 1 (0.99, 1) 1 (0.99, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 127 2 2
time_stop 15 (10, 30) 10 (10, 11) 12 (12, 12)
n_trt 39 (27, 106) 28 (27, 30) 26 (25, 27)
n_control 56 (33, 134) 32 (28, 35) 46 (44, 47)
post_p 1 (0.95, 1) 0.98 (0.98, 0.99) 0.92 (0.88, 0.95)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.2, 2.8) 1 (1, 1)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all count 4
time_stop 4 (3, 4)
n_trt 28 (27, 34)
n_control 38 (27, 45)
post_p 0.19 (0.1, 0.23)
order 1 (1, 1)
TP53- & AR- count 2 60 34 31
time_stop 7 (7, 7) 20 (12, 34) 17 (12, 25) 16 (13, 26)
n_trt 27 (27, 27) 27 (25, 50) 31 (25, 52) 29 (25, 56)
n_control 22 (20, 23) 98 (50, 163) 80 (51, 117) 76 (49, 120)
post_p 0.21 (0.2, 0.21) 0.11 (0.03, 0.26) 0.09 (0.03, 0.21) 0.12 (0.05, 0.27)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 189 2 1
time_stop 20 (11, 32) 13 (11, 15) 11 (11, 11)
n_trt 37 (26, 69) 26 (26, 26) 25 (25, 25)
n_control 97 (47, 163) 68 (59, 77) 50 (50, 50)
post_p 0.03 (0, 0.15) 0.11 (0.05, 0.17) 0.07 (0.07, 0.07)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1)
HRD+ count 108 16
time_stop 27 (20, 35) 26 (20, 32)
n_trt 27 (25, 36) 28 (25, 44)
n_control 78 (51, 107) 68 (47, 100)
post_p 0.08 (0.01, 0.21) 0.16 (0.09, 0.22)
order 2 (1, 3) 1.5 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 143 3 4
time_stop 23 (16, 32) 15 (13, 20) 16 (12, 21)
n_trt 32 (25, 47) 31 (28, 37) 28 (28, 33)
n_control 90 (52, 141) 59 (41, 66) 54 (34, 77)
post_p 0.04 (0.01, 0.15) 0.28 (0.18, 0.28) 0.1 (0.04, 0.23)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 1.8) 1 (1, 1.7)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var —- —+ –+- –++ -+– -+-+ -++- -+++ +— +–+ +-+- +-++ ++– ++-+ +++- ++++
all ARSi count 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
time 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7) 5 (4, 7)
n 16 (12, 27) 2 (0, 4) 6 (3, 8) 2 (0, 7) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 2 (0, 2) 1 (0, 2) 1 (0, 3) 0 (0, 3) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 2)
post_p 0.68 (0.65, 0.87) 0.52 (0.51, 0.55) 0.58 (0.54, 0.77) 0.54 (0.51, 0.6) 0.53 (0.51, 0.54) 0.53 (0.51, 0.55) 0.51 (0.51, 0.51) 0.51 (0.51, 0.53) 0.54 (0.51, 0.66) 0.51 (0.5, 0.51) 0.52 (0.5, 0.61) 0.54 (0.52, 0.57) NA (NA, NA) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) 0.54 (0.52, 0.57) 0.55 (0.54, 0.56)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0, 0.049) 0 (0, 0.069) 0.067 (0, 0.099) 0 (0, 0.09) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.151) 0 (0, 0.284) 0 (0, 0.048) 0 (0, 0.054) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Taxane_CT count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6)
n 4 (2, 7) 2 (0, 4) 2 (1, 7) 4 (4, 7) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 5 (4, 6) 3 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 3 (1, 4) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1)
post_p 0.56 (0.54, 0.65) 0.56 (0.52, 0.61) 0.56 (0.53, 0.67) 0.56 (0.54, 0.6) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.58 (0.54, 0.65) 0.54 (0.51, 0.56) 0.53 (0.53, 0.55) 0.59 (0.54, 0.63) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.56 (0.52, 0.6) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0 (0, 0.024) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.059) 0.054 (0, 0.07) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) 7.902 (7.902, 7.902) 0 (0, 0) 0.056 (0.017, 0.078) 0 (0, 0.054) 0 (0, 0.119) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Platinum_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7) 6 (5, 7)
n 2 (2, 5) 1 (1, 2) 8 (6, 9) 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 3) 2 (0, 4) 0 (0, 3) 2 (0, 3) 0 (0, 1) 1 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 1 (0, 1) 2 (0, 4) 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 3) 3 (3, 5)
post_p 0.54 (0.54, 0.65) 0.54 (0.52, 0.56) 0.68 (0.54, 0.73) 0.52 (0.51, 0.53) 0.54 (0.53, 0.59) 0.51 (0.51, 0.52) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58) 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.56 (0.54, 0.58) 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) 0.53 (0.51, 0.54) 0.51 (0.51, 0.51) 0.52 (0.51, 0.53) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.54 (0.51, 0.57)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0 (0, 0.053) 0 (0, 0) 0.127 (0.025, 0.167) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.066 (0.066, 0.066) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
PARPi count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8) 7 (6, 8)
n 6 (6, 7) 0 (0, 1) 7 (5, 9) 2 (0, 3) 4 (3, 4) 4 (2, 6) 2 (1, 3) 1 (0, 2) 2 (1, 2) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 4 (3, 4) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 2 (0, 4)
post_p 0.63 (0.54, 0.71) 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.53 (0.51, 0.54) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) 0.61 (0.52, 0.69) 0.54 (0.52, 0.56) 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) 0.53 (0.52, 0.54) NA (NA, NA) 0.51 (0.51, 0.51) 0.51 (0.51, 0.51) 0.52 (0.52, 0.53) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56) 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.53 (0.53, 0.53)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.071 (0.057, 0.086) 0 (0, 0) 0.175 (0.155, 0.194) 0.113 (0.113, 0.113) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
TP53- & AR- ARSi count 223 223 223 223
time 9 (7, 16) 9 (7, 16) 9 (7, 16) 9 (7, 16)
n 26 (20, 50) 3 (2, 6) 2 (0, 4) 1 (0, 4)
post_p 0.91 (0.79, 1) 0.55 (0.51, 0.71) 0.54 (0.51, 0.65) 0.53 (0.51, 0.6)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.032 (0.012, 0.051) 0 (0, 0.071) 0 (0, 0.068) 0 (0, 0.05)
Taxane_CT count 2 2 2 2
time 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17)
n 18 (12, 23) 11 (9, 13) 4 (2, 6) 6 (3, 9)
post_p 0.72 (0.71, 0.74) 0.9 (0.85, 0.96) 0.53 (0.53, 0.53) 0.67 (0.62, 0.72)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.069 (0.069, 0.07) 0.01 (0.002, 0.018) 0.084 (0.074, 0.094) 0.009 (0.002, 0.015)
Platinum_CT count 6 6 6 6
time 14 (14, 19) 14 (14, 19) 14 (14, 19) 14 (14, 19)
n 13 (10, 16) 4 (2, 6) 9 (3, 12) 4 (2, 8)
post_p 0.78 (0.77, 0.85) 0.6 (0.51, 0.75) 0.71 (0.57, 0.73) 0.54 (0.51, 0.69)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.058 (0.053, 0.077) 0 (0, 0.052) 0.04 (0.01, 0.053) 0.013 (0, 0.039)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1
time 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11)
n 31 (31, 31) 1 (1, 1) 3 (3, 3) 2 (2, 2)
post_p 0.93 (0.93, 0.93) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.058 (0.058, 0.058) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
TP53+ ARSi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7)
n 15 (15, 15) 6 (6, 6) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 1 (1, 1) 3 (3, 3) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.81 (0.81, 0.81) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) 0.61 (0.61, 0.61) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.038 (0.038, 0.038) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA)
Taxane_CT count 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
time 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19) 11 (9, 19)
n 14 (9, 21) 13 (8, 20) 1 (0, 2) 1 (0, 2) 4 (0, 5) 4 (1, 9) 1 (0, 5) 1 (0, 3)
post_p 0.77 (0.72, 0.86) 0.86 (0.76, 0.97) 0.54 (0.51, 0.59) 0.55 (0.51, 0.6) 0.57 (0.54, 0.73) 0.7 (0.54, 0.84) 0.54 (0.51, 0.56) 0.57 (0.52, 0.61)
r_prob 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.082 (0.023, 0.136) 0.026 (0, 0.058) 0 (0, 0.096) 0 (0, 0.021) 0.077 (0, 0.145) 0.024 (0, 0.074) 0 (0, 0.105) 0 (0, 0.063)
Platinum_CT count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16) 12 (10, 16)
n 12 (9, 16) 4 (2, 5) 4 (1, 6) 2 (0, 4) 4 (2, 6) 1 (0, 2) 3 (2, 4) 3 (0, 4)
post_p 0.84 (0.79, 0.92) 0.55 (0.54, 0.64) 0.59 (0.54, 0.74) 0.56 (0.54, 0.58) 0.57 (0.55, 0.78) 0.54 (0.53, 0.56) 0.56 (0.51, 0.79) 0.54 (0.52, 0.64)
r_prob 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.075 (0.042, 0.101) 0.027 (0, 0.101) 0 (0, 0.083) 0 (0, 0.027) 0.061 (0, 0.106) 0 (0, 0.07) 0 (0, 0.043) 0 (0, 0.038)
PARPi count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22) 14 (10, 22)
n 16 (10, 32) 4 (1, 12) 2 (2, 4) 3 (2, 6) 3 (1, 8) 2 (0, 3) 4 (2, 6) 4 (1, 4)
post_p 0.84 (0.75, 0.96) 0.55 (0.5, 0.8) 0.62 (0.54, 0.89) 0.59 (0.53, 0.76) 0.63 (0.54, 0.74) 0.57 (0.54, 0.65) 0.66 (0.55, 0.8) 0.6 (0.53, 0.76)
r_prob 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.089 (0.024, 0.097) 0.023 (0, 0.089) 0 (0, 0.019) 0.009 (0, 0.058) 0.015 (0, 0.108) 0.036 (0, 0.079) 0.01 (0, 0.045) 0.013 (0, 0.041)
HRD+ Platinum_CT count 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191
time 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35) 25 (13, 35)
n 10 (4, 19) 9 (3, 19) 6 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 12) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11)
post_p 0.8 (0.58, 0.98) 0.74 (0.53, 0.91) 0.75 (0.56, 0.96) 0.7 (0.52, 0.88) 0.74 (0.55, 0.94) 0.69 (0.53, 0.9) 0.73 (0.53, 0.94) 0.7 (0.53, 0.88)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.03 (0, 0.06) 0.029 (0, 0.052) 0.032 (0, 0.083) 0.028 (0, 0.055) 0.028 (0, 0.061) 0.024 (0, 0.054) 0.032 (0, 0.07) 0.029 (0, 0.058)
PARPi count 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181
time 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35) 25 (14, 35)
n 11 (4, 19) 10 (3, 18) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 12) 5 (2, 12) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11)
post_p 0.84 (0.6, 0.99) 0.75 (0.56, 0.95) 0.76 (0.55, 0.97) 0.73 (0.53, 0.89) 0.74 (0.55, 0.94) 0.72 (0.53, 0.91) 0.78 (0.56, 0.96) 0.71 (0.52, 0.92)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.028 (0, 0.054) 0.026 (0, 0.046) 0.029 (0, 0.063) 0.023 (0, 0.052) 0.028 (0, 0.068) 0.03 (0, 0.065) 0.026 (0, 0.067) 0.03 (0, 0.063)
TEfus+ Taxane_CT count 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127
time 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30) 15 (10, 30)
n 5 (2, 17) 16 (10, 39) 3 (1, 12) 2 (0, 5) 5 (2, 13) 5 (2, 13) 2 (0, 5) 2 (0, 5)
post_p 0.7 (0.54, 0.91) 0.92 (0.74, 1) 0.58 (0.52, 0.81) 0.56 (0.51, 0.78) 0.71 (0.55, 0.96) 0.72 (0.54, 0.96) 0.55 (0.51, 0.73) 0.56 (0.51, 0.75)
r_prob 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0, 0.051) 0.033 (0.01, 0.055) 0 (0, 0.052) 0 (0, 0.057) 0.03 (0, 0.064) 0.025 (0, 0.084) 0 (0, 0.087) 0 (0, 0.099)
Platinum_CT count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11)
n 3 (2, 4) 7 (5, 9) 3 (2, 4) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (4, 5)
post_p 0.6 (0.57, 0.64) 0.71 (0.54, 0.88) 0.58 (0.54, 0.61) 0.52 (0.51, 0.53) 0.54 (0.51, 0.57) 0.55 (0.52, 0.58) 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0 (0, 0) 0.067 (0.013, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.087 (0.072, 0.102) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
PARPi count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12) 12 (12, 12)
n 2 (0, 3) 6 (2, 9) 7 (5, 9) 2 (2, 3) 2 (1, 3) 0 (0, 1) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4)
post_p 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.69 (0.56, 0.83) 0.7 (0.62, 0.78) 0.55 (0.53, 0.57) 0.52 (0.51, 0.54) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58) 0.6 (0.6, 0.61) 0.55 (0.53, 0.57)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.103 (0.103, 0.103) 0.02 (0.004, 0.036) 0.028 (0.006, 0.05) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.017 (0.003, 0.03) 0.016 (0.003, 0.029)
Futility:
signature treatment var —- —+ –+- –++ -+– -+-+ -++- -+++ +— +–+ +-+- +-++ ++– ++-+ +++- ++++
all ARSi count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4) 4 (3, 4)
n 15 (15, 16) 2 (1, 2) 6 (4, 9) 4 (1, 6) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 1 (0, 1) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1)
post_p 0.47 (0.42, 0.5) 0.43 (0.43, 0.48) 0.44 (0.39, 0.48) 0.41 (0.39, 0.47) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.44, 0.48) 0.46 (0.43, 0.46) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.087 (0.069, 0.099) 0.265 (0.053, 0.265) 0.194 (0.144, 0.265) 0.181 (0.039, 0.273) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.725 (0.145, 1.305) 2.644 (1.242, 8.745) 0.072 (0.014, 0.129) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0)
TP53- & AR- count 2 2 2 2
time 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7) 7 (7, 7)
n 20 (19, 20) 6 (4, 7) 0 (0, 0) 2 (1, 3)
post_p 0.43 (0.41, 0.46) 0.41 (0.4, 0.43) NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.43, 0.44)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.101 (0.092, 0.109) 0.104 (0.083, 0.124) NA (NA, NA) 0.468 (0.41, 0.527)
Taxane_CT count 60 60 60 60
time 20 (12, 34) 20 (12, 34) 20 (12, 34) 20 (12, 34)
n 14 (9, 29) 6 (4, 14) 4 (1, 7) 4 (2, 7)
post_p 0.14 (0.02, 0.42) 0.44 (0.32, 0.49) 0.32 (0.18, 0.46) 0.42 (0.28, 0.49)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.134 (0.108, 0.205) 0.076 (0.052, 0.135) 0.157 (0.095, 0.403) 0.094 (0.055, 0.24)
Platinum_CT count 34 34 34 34
time 17 (12, 25) 17 (12, 25) 17 (12, 25) 17 (12, 25)
n 16 (9, 36) 5 (2, 8) 5 (3, 9) 5 (3, 10)
post_p 0.1 (0.01, 0.27) 0.38 (0.2, 0.48) 0.46 (0.35, 0.49) 0.44 (0.3, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.145 (0.1, 0.222) 0.109 (0.067, 0.344) 0.077 (0.054, 0.117) 0.068 (0.041, 0.153)
PARPi count 31 31 31 31
time 16 (13, 26) 16 (13, 26) 16 (13, 26) 16 (13, 26)
n 15 (10, 40) 4 (2, 7) 4 (1, 8) 5 (2, 10)
post_p 0.16 (0.06, 0.35) 0.32 (0.16, 0.45) 0.42 (0.29, 0.49) 0.44 (0.34, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.138 (0.089, 0.223) 0.198 (0.085, 0.616) 0.093 (0.051, 0.246) 0.057 (0.034, 0.255)
TP53+ ARSi count 189 189 189 189 189 189 189 189
time 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32) 20 (11, 32)
n 13 (7, 36) 6 (3, 15) 2 (1, 5) 2 (0, 4) 3 (1, 9) 4 (1, 7) 2 (1, 5) 2 (0, 5)
post_p 0.3 (0.1, 0.48) 0.23 (0.1, 0.44) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.36 (0.23, 0.47) 0.4 (0.21, 0.48) 0.37 (0.19, 0.48) 0.39 (0.23, 0.47) 0.37 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.175 (0.129, 0.272) 0.162 (0.102, 0.342) 0.181 (0.098, 0.815) 0.193 (0.087, 0.747) 0.212 (0.133, 0.442) 0.181 (0.093, 0.533) 0.188 (0.084, 0.62) 0.178 (0.074, 0.582)
Platinum_CT count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15) 13 (11, 15)
n 8 (7, 8) 5 (3, 7) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 3 (2, 4) 1 (0, 2) 4 (3, 4)
post_p 0.34 (0.31, 0.37) 0.18 (0.1, 0.27) 0.46 (0.43, 0.49) 0.39 (0.36, 0.43) 0.26 (0.16, 0.35) 0.4 (0.35, 0.46) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) 0.42 (0.39, 0.45)
r_prob 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.194 (0.181, 0.208) 0.346 (0.29, 0.401) 0.207 (0.1, 0.314) 0.175 (0.157, 0.193) 0.539 (0.519, 0.559) 0.269 (0.168, 0.37) 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0.077 (0.059, 0.096)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11)
n 5 (5, 5) 8 (8, 8) 0 (0, 0) 4 (4, 4) 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 1) 0 (0, 0) 5 (5, 5)
post_p 0.27 (0.27, 0.27) 0.23 (0.23, 0.23) NA (NA, NA) 0.4 (0.4, 0.4) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.43, 0.43)
r_prob 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.241 (0.241, 0.241) 0.144 (0.144, 0.144) NA (NA, NA) 0.092 (0.092, 0.092) 0.251 (0.251, 0.251) 0.223 (0.223, 0.223) NA (NA, NA) 0.144 (0.144, 0.144)
HRD+ ARSi count 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108
time 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35) 27 (20, 35)
n 4 (0, 9) 4 (1, 9) 3 (1, 7) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 7) 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6)
post_p 0.39 (0.19, 0.48) 0.36 (0.17, 0.46) 0.36 (0.23, 0.47) 0.34 (0.18, 0.47) 0.35 (0.18, 0.48) 0.34 (0.21, 0.46) 0.35 (0.19, 0.47) 0.34 (0.15, 0.46)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.117 (0.074, 0.254) 0.102 (0.058, 0.262) 0.168 (0.104, 0.58) 0.166 (0.086, 0.359) 0.176 (0.102, 0.448) 0.164 (0.086, 0.485) 0.157 (0.093, 0.432) 0.173 (0.079, 0.453)
Taxane_CT count 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
time 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32) 26 (20, 32)
n 4 (3, 8) 6 (2, 11) 3 (2, 6) 2 (0, 4) 3 (2, 5) 3 (1, 7) 4 (1, 7) 3 (0, 6)
post_p 0.32 (0.19, 0.43) 0.4 (0.29, 0.48) 0.34 (0.19, 0.46) 0.41 (0.28, 0.47) 0.32 (0.2, 0.44) 0.41 (0.32, 0.48) 0.37 (0.25, 0.43) 0.46 (0.29, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.146 (0.103, 0.244) 0.066 (0.045, 0.094) 0.178 (0.098, 0.717) 0.107 (0.074, 0.444) 0.264 (0.096, 0.658) 0.112 (0.068, 0.406) 0.139 (0.096, 0.522) 0.069 (0.047, 0.119)
TEfus+ ARSi count 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143
time 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32) 23 (16, 32)
n 6 (3, 11) 7 (3, 13) 3 (0, 7) 2 (1, 5) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 7) 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5)
post_p 0.43 (0.25, 0.49) 0.23 (0.09, 0.46) 0.39 (0.21, 0.49) 0.36 (0.2, 0.45) 0.34 (0.2, 0.48) 0.34 (0.21, 0.48) 0.37 (0.21, 0.47) 0.37 (0.19, 0.46)
r_prob 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.073 (0.047, 0.136) 0.153 (0.091, 0.322) 0.092 (0.054, 0.287) 0.181 (0.082, 0.614) 0.15 (0.095, 0.456) 0.176 (0.09, 0.413) 0.181 (0.077, 0.405) 0.165 (0.074, 0.489)
Platinum_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20) 15 (13, 20)
n 3 (1, 4) 9 (7, 11) 8 (6, 8) 1 (0, 3) 3 (1, 4) 1 (0, 2) 3 (3, 7) 3 (3, 5)
post_p 0.22 (0.11, 0.4) 0.34 (0.28, 0.43) 0.45 (0.44, 0.47) 0.47 (0.46, 0.47) 0.44 (0.24, 0.45) 0.36 (0.31, 0.42) 0.43 (0.41, 0.48) 0.45 (0.43, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.499 (0.213, 0.685) 0.117 (0.117, 0.206) 0.042 (0.042, 0.043) 0.068 (0.066, 0.07) 0.246 (0.143, 0.254) 0.335 (0.305, 0.366) 0.039 (0.035, 0.04) 0.091 (0.068, 0.109)
PARPi count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21) 16 (12, 21)
n 4 (2, 6) 3 (2, 7) 6 (5, 8) 4 (3, 7) 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 2 (2, 4) 3 (1, 5)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.43) 0.24 (0.14, 0.26) 0.4 (0.35, 0.48) 0.44 (0.36, 0.47) 0.41 (0.35, 0.48) 0.21 (0.19, 0.33) 0.38 (0.34, 0.48) 0.42 (0.23, 0.46)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.173 (0.1, 0.238) 0.296 (0.161, 0.782) 0.068 (0.046, 0.087) 0.049 (0.042, 0.08) 0.131 (0.064, 0.348) 0.195 (0.166, 0.264) 0.188 (0.051, 0.715) 0.111 (0.075, 0.381)