Setting description

Platinum_CT and PARPi more effective in the HRD+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.091, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.091, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 10.8, median = 7.7 mean = 10.8, median = 7.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.23, hr = 0.81 af = 1.23, hr = 0.81
TP53- & AR- param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.093, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.093, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 10.5, median = 7.6 mean = 10.5, median = 7.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.2, hr = 0.83 af = 1.2, hr = 0.83
TP53+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.092, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.092, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 10.7, median = 7.7 mean = 10.7, median = 7.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.21, hr = 0.82 af = 1.21, hr = 0.82
HRD+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
TEfus+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.084, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.084, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 11.7, median = 8.4 mean = 11.7, median = 8.4
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.33, hr = 0.74 af = 1.33, hr = 0.74



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
—- param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
—+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+- param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–++ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+– param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
-+-+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
-++- param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
-+++ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
+— param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+–+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+- param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-++ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++– param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
++-+ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
+++- param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
++++ param scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
summary mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 8.8, median = 6.3 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1 mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31 af = 3.03, hr = 0.31

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 6 3 19 15
TP53- & AR- 30 13 116 121
TP53+ 8 3 21 20
HRD+ 0 0 247 241
TEfus+ 0 2 18 27
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0.012 0.006 0.038 0.030
TP53- & AR- 0.060 0.026 0.232 0.242
TP53+ 0.016 0.006 0.042 0.040
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.494 0.482
TEfus+ 0.000 0.004 0.036 0.054
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 14 6 0 0
TP53- & AR- 243 196 5 5
TP53+ 79 63 0 0
HRD+ 107 123 0 0
TEfus+ 62 76 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0.028 0.012 0.00 0.00
TP53- & AR- 0.486 0.392 0.01 0.01
TP53+ 0.158 0.126 0.00 0.00
HRD+ 0.214 0.246 0.00 0.00
TEfus+ 0.124 0.152 0.00 0.00
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0 0
TP53- & AR- 9 11 26 20
TP53+ 9 7 9 11
HRD+ 0 0 0 0
TEfus+ 1 0 0 1
ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- & AR- 0.018 0.022 0.052 0.040
TP53+ 0.018 0.014 0.018 0.022
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.002


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.34.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

       ARSi   Taxane_CT Platinum_CT       PARPi 
      0.084       0.042       0.122       0.148 

The overall power was 0.718.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

       ARSi   Taxane_CT Platinum_CT       PARPi 
      0.000       0.000       0.494       0.482 

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 6 3 19 15
futility 0 14 6 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 417 (384, 454) 168 (105, 242) 180 (125, 250) 197 (123, 264) 195 (132, 268)
n_unique 382 (353, 415) 154 (99, 228) 166 (114, 234) 180 (111, 246) 181 (120, 252)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 8 (4, 29) 6 (4, 29) 7 (6, 27) 8 (5, 33)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.08, 0.85) 0.46 (0.09, 0.86) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.112 (0.105, 0.12) 0.113 (0.102, 0.129) 0.112 (0.102, 0.126) 0.073 (0.062, 0.084) 0.072 (0.062, 0.083)
TP53- & AR- graduation 0 30 13 116 121
futility 0 243 196 5 5
max_n 0 9 11 26 20
n 176 (151, 197) 54 (26, 125) 55 (26, 122) 70 (29, 132) 69 (33, 132)
n_unique 163 (138, 184) 51 (25, 117) 52 (24, 116) 64 (26, 125) 63 (30, 125)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 29 (9, 36) 36 (14, 36) 36 (17, 36) 36 (17, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 14 (7, 28) 19 (12, 32) 18 (12, 31) 20 (12, 33)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.38 (0.08, 0.85) 0.41 (0.08, 0.83) 0.99 (0.84, 1) 0.99 (0.8, 1)
rate 0.112 (0.101, 0.126) 0.116 (0.096, 0.146) 0.116 (0.097, 0.142) 0.074 (0.055, 0.093) 0.074 (0.054, 0.096)
TP53+ graduation 0 8 3 21 20
futility 0 79 63 0 0
max_n 0 9 7 9 11
n 184 (162, 210) 81 (38, 122) 87 (49, 118) 88 (53, 125) 91 (54, 126)
n_unique 168 (147, 191) 75 (34, 111) 81 (44, 110) 81 (49, 117) 84 (50, 117)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (22, 36) 36 (30, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 18 (10, 33) 18 (9, 32) 14 (10, 23) 13 (10, 25)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.07, 0.86) 0.42 (0.1, 0.86) 0.99 (0.86, 1) 1 (0.89, 1)
rate 0.113 (0.101, 0.125) 0.114 (0.098, 0.141) 0.113 (0.098, 0.134) 0.076 (0.06, 0.093) 0.074 (0.06, 0.09)
HRD+ graduation 0 0 0 247 241
futility 0 107 123 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 111 (94, 130) 34 (23, 55) 36 (24, 58) 72 (28, 99) 72 (33, 101)
n_unique 101 (85, 118) 31 (20, 51) 33 (22, 53) 66 (26, 92) 66 (30, 93)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (28, 36) 36 (27, 36) 36 (16, 36) 36 (18, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 29 (23, 34) 28 (20, 34) 23 (13, 34) 26 (13, 35)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.36 (0.06, 0.79) 0.35 (0.06, 0.72) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.112 (0.099, 0.127) 0.112 (0.089, 0.148) 0.114 (0.093, 0.149) 0.036 (0.028, 0.045) 0.036 (0.028, 0.044)
TEfus+ graduation 0 0 2 18 27
futility 0 62 76 0 0
max_n 0 1 0 0 1
n 152 (132, 172) 60 (33, 90) 70 (38, 96) 75 (43, 105) 78 (45, 106)
n_unique 138 (119, 157) 55 (30, 82) 64 (35, 90) 68 (39, 97) 72 (41, 97)
time_trial 36 (36, 36) 36 (31, 36) 36 (26, 36) 36 (36, 36) 36 (36, 36)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 22 (16, 34) 22 (12, 31) 17 (12, 28) 16 (11, 30)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.4 (0.09, 0.8) 0.41 (0.07, 0.82) 1 (0.93, 1) 1 (0.95, 1)
rate 0.112 (0.099, 0.126) 0.115 (0.096, 0.14) 0.113 (0.097, 0.141) 0.065 (0.052, 0.08) 0.065 (0.051, 0.08)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
—- graduation 0 283 217 138 138
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 11 26 20
n 114 (94, 132) 31 (17, 98) 34 (10, 90) 33 (10, 89) 34 (12, 90)
n_unique 106 (85, 123) 30 (16, 91) 32 (9, 85) 30 (9, 86) 31 (10, 85)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.87) 0.43 (0.1, 0.87) 0.49 (0.09, 0.89) 0.47 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.113 (0.099, 0.128) 0.117 (0.094, 0.16) 0.119 (0.096, 0.18) 0.115 (0.09, 0.179) 0.115 (0.091, 0.166)
—+ graduation 0 303 251 146 151
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 10 11 26 20
n 21 (14, 27) 7 (2, 20) 8 (3, 20) 7 (2, 18) 7 (2, 18)
n_unique 19 (12, 26) 6 (2, 18) 7 (3, 19) 6 (2, 17) 6 (2, 17)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.18, 0.81) 0.46 (0.18, 0.83) 0.44 (0.16, 0.81) 0.47 (0.19, 0.82)
rate 0.111 (0.078, 0.156) 0.122 (0.078, 0.282) 0.121 (0.076, 0.259) 0.125 (0.073, 0.268) 0.116 (0.071, 0.267)
–+- graduation 0 99 71 40 34
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 7 9 11
n 62 (49, 76) 25 (9, 56) 26 (8, 53) 22 (7, 55) 24 (7, 53)
n_unique 57 (44, 71) 23 (8, 53) 24 (7, 50) 20 (6, 52) 22 (7, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.1, 0.86) 0.48 (0.11, 0.88) 0.47 (0.11, 0.88) 0.49 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.113 (0.095, 0.138) 0.119 (0.091, 0.197) 0.115 (0.09, 0.201) 0.119 (0.09, 0.202) 0.117 (0.09, 0.197)
–++ graduation 0 132 122 52 54
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 10 7 9 11
n 43 (33, 53) 15 (5, 37) 20 (8, 41) 14 (4, 34) 15 (4, 37)
n_unique 39 (30, 49) 14 (4, 34) 18 (8, 39) 13 (4, 32) 14 (4, 35)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.14, 0.84) 0.49 (0.14, 0.86) 0.47 (0.12, 0.84) 0.46 (0.13, 0.85)
rate 0.113 (0.091, 0.141) 0.122 (0.09, 0.212) 0.116 (0.089, 0.183) 0.121 (0.083, 0.262) 0.119 (0.082, 0.224)
-+– graduation 0 332 284 303 309
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 10 23 19
n 20 (14, 27) 4 (1, 12) 5 (2, 12) 12 (4, 23) 11 (4, 22)
n_unique 18 (12, 25) 4 (1, 11) 5 (2, 11) 11 (3, 21) 10 (3, 21)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.36 (0.16, 0.68) 0.33 (0.14, 0.62) 0.95 (0.71, 1) 0.94 (0.68, 1)
rate 0.115 (0.086, 0.162) 0.127 (0.068, 0.403) 0.129 (0.069, 0.316) 0.036 (0.018, 0.062) 0.037 (0.02, 0.067)
-+-+ graduation 0 347 309 303 312
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 10 23 19
n 20 (14, 28) 4 (0, 11) 5 (2, 12) 12 (4, 22) 12 (3, 21)
n_unique 19 (13, 26) 4 (0, 10) 4 (1, 11) 11 (3, 20) 11 (3, 20)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.15, 0.67) 0.34 (0.14, 0.63) 0.95 (0.66, 1) 0.95 (0.68, 1)
rate 0.112 (0.08, 0.155) 0.129 (0.065, 0.343) 0.128 (0.071, 0.344) 0.037 (0.019, 0.068) 0.037 (0.019, 0.065)
-++- graduation 0 178 170 264 255
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 7 8 8
n 11 (6, 17) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 9) 7 (2, 13) 8 (2, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 16) 3 (1, 7) 3 (1, 8) 6 (2, 12) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.19, 0.63) 0.36 (0.18, 0.66) 0.83 (0.54, 0.97) 0.84 (0.52, 0.98)
rate 0.112 (0.072, 0.176) 0.132 (0.063, 0.364) 0.132 (0.062, 0.395) 0.036 (0.013, 0.079) 0.035 (0.016, 0.08)
-+++ graduation 0 206 206 265 260
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 10 7 8 8
n 12 (7, 17) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 8) 6 (2, 14) 7 (3, 13)
n_unique 10 (6, 16) 3 (1, 8) 3 (1, 7) 6 (2, 13) 7 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.38 (0.19, 0.65) 0.35 (0.18, 0.63) 0.82 (0.54, 0.97) 0.85 (0.53, 0.98)
rate 0.113 (0.074, 0.183) 0.127 (0.063, 0.353) 0.139 (0.063, 0.4) 0.037 (0.013, 0.085) 0.037 (0.015, 0.077)
+— graduation 0 20 9 19 15
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 20 (13, 26) 8 (3, 17) 11 (4, 19) 8 (3, 17) 9 (3, 17)
n_unique 18 (12, 25) 7 (3, 16) 10 (4, 18) 8 (2, 16) 8 (2, 16)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.2, 0.83) 0.49 (0.17, 0.83) 0.47 (0.18, 0.85) 0.5 (0.21, 0.85)
rate 0.115 (0.082, 0.161) 0.123 (0.079, 0.264) 0.118 (0.082, 0.228) 0.125 (0.071, 0.268) 0.115 (0.075, 0.267)
+–+ graduation 0 76 85 35 40
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 0 0 1
n 16 (10, 22) 7 (2, 15) 8 (3, 16) 6 (2, 14) 6 (2, 15)
n_unique 14 (9, 20) 6 (2, 13) 8 (3, 15) 5 (2, 12) 6 (2, 14)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.21, 0.8) 0.45 (0.2, 0.83) 0.47 (0.21, 0.79) 0.46 (0.2, 0.83)
rate 0.115 (0.08, 0.162) 0.128 (0.077, 0.273) 0.124 (0.077, 0.248) 0.128 (0.072, 0.284) 0.127 (0.069, 0.324)
+-+- graduation 0 99 71 40 34
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 7 9 11
n 16 (11, 22) 6 (2, 15) 8 (3, 16) 7 (2, 14) 6 (2, 13)
n_unique 15 (9, 21) 6 (2, 14) 7 (3, 15) 6 (2, 13) 6 (2, 12)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.21, 0.84) 0.46 (0.2, 0.8) 0.47 (0.2, 0.83) 0.47 (0.19, 0.78)
rate 0.116 (0.08, 0.167) 0.13 (0.076, 0.299) 0.125 (0.081, 0.263) 0.122 (0.069, 0.284) 0.126 (0.073, 0.311)
+-++ graduation 0 132 122 52 54
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 10 7 9 11
n 16 (10, 21) 6 (2, 14) 8 (2, 16) 6 (2, 14) 6 (2, 15)
n_unique 14 (9, 19) 6 (2, 13) 7 (2, 15) 6 (2, 13) 6 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.22, 0.81) 0.45 (0.21, 0.82) 0.46 (0.21, 0.82) 0.48 (0.2, 0.79)
rate 0.112 (0.078, 0.165) 0.127 (0.075, 0.28) 0.125 (0.077, 0.271) 0.122 (0.066, 0.287) 0.122 (0.073, 0.297)
++– graduation 0 124 132 260 254
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 0 0 0
n 11 (7, 16) 4 (2, 9) 4 (2, 8) 7 (2, 13) 7 (2, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 15) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 7) 6 (2, 12) 6 (2, 12)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.18, 0.59) 0.37 (0.19, 0.64) 0.83 (0.51, 0.98) 0.85 (0.55, 0.97)
rate 0.113 (0.075, 0.179) 0.129 (0.067, 0.299) 0.125 (0.063, 0.331) 0.037 (0.015, 0.088) 0.036 (0.016, 0.086)
++-+ graduation 0 167 184 261 259
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 1 0 0 1
n 12 (7, 17) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 8) 6 (2, 14) 7 (2, 13)
n_unique 10 (6, 15) 3 (1, 8) 3 (1, 7) 6 (2, 13) 6 (2, 12)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.36 (0.19, 0.62) 0.37 (0.2, 0.63) 0.83 (0.5, 0.98) 0.85 (0.5, 0.98)
rate 0.116 (0.074, 0.182) 0.124 (0.063, 0.384) 0.123 (0.063, 0.286) 0.037 (0.015, 0.091) 0.037 (0.016, 0.079)
+++- graduation 0 178 170 264 255
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 7 8 8
n 12 (7, 17) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 8) 6 (2, 13) 7 (2, 14)
n_unique 10 (6, 16) 4 (1, 7) 3 (1, 7) 6 (2, 12) 6 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.36 (0.19, 0.65) 0.34 (0.19, 0.59) 0.82 (0.53, 0.97) 0.84 (0.52, 0.98)
rate 0.113 (0.072, 0.182) 0.127 (0.062, 0.353) 0.137 (0.067, 0.394) 0.038 (0.015, 0.082) 0.037 (0.015, 0.082)
++++ graduation 0 206 206 265 260
futility 0 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 10 7 8 8
n 12 (7, 17) 4 (1, 8) 4 (1, 8) 6 (2, 14) 7 (2, 14)
n_unique 11 (6, 16) 3 (1, 7) 3 (1, 8) 6 (2, 13) 6 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.17, 0.6) 0.37 (0.2, 0.64) 0.83 (0.49, 0.97) 0.84 (0.53, 0.98)
rate 0.111 (0.071, 0.182) 0.127 (0.063, 0.402) 0.129 (0.059, 0.356) 0.038 (0.015, 0.093) 0.037 (0.015, 0.084)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all count 6 3 19 15
time_stop 5 (4, 8) 5 (5, 6) 7 (6, 27) 8 (5, 33)
n_trt 34 (28, 56) 34 (29, 34) 33 (28, 113) 34 (26, 213)
n_control 61 (50, 83) 65 (55, 66) 77 (57, 302) 79 (60, 349)
post_p 0.9 (0.89, 0.92) 0.86 (0.86, 0.94) 1 (0.95, 1) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 2.2) 1 (1, 2)
TP53- & AR- count 30 13 116 121
time_stop 10 (7, 15) 12 (9, 16) 18 (12, 32) 21 (12, 33)
n_trt 30 (26, 43) 31 (25, 43) 45 (27, 88) 49 (27, 99)
n_control 42 (28, 63) 48 (38, 73) 78 (47, 148) 95 (50, 157)
post_p 0.9 (0.86, 0.96) 0.9 (0.87, 0.98) 0.99 (0.92, 1) 0.99 (0.92, 1)
order 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 2.8) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 8 3 21 20
time_stop 10 (9, 10) 8 (7, 13) 14 (10, 23) 13 (10, 25)
n_trt 28 (25, 34) 26 (25, 32) 35 (26, 66) 35 (27, 66)
n_control 38 (31, 42) 38 (34, 45) 65 (38, 110) 56 (39, 114)
post_p 0.91 (0.87, 0.97) 0.88 (0.86, 0.89) 1 (0.95, 1) 0.99 (0.98, 1)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 2.1)
HRD+ count 247 241
time_stop 23 (13, 34) 26 (13, 35)
n_trt 51 (26, 87) 58 (28, 89)
n_control 64 (32, 109) 74 (35, 110)
post_p 1 (0.99, 1) 1 (1, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 2 18 27
time_stop 12 (11, 13) 17 (12, 28) 16 (11, 30)
n_trt 30 (29, 30) 32 (26, 52) 31 (26, 78)
n_control 42 (36, 48) 58 (43, 119) 63 (35, 122)
post_p 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) 1 (0.98, 1) 0.99 (0.97, 1)
order 1 (1, 1) 2.5 (1, 4) 2 (1, 3)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT Platinum_CT PARPi
all count 14 6
time_stop 14 (3, 30) 9 (4, 30)
n_trt 68 (27, 97) 46 (30, 104)
n_control 125 (34, 368) 88 (40, 352)
post_p 0.06 (0.01, 0.2) 0.06 (0.01, 0.16)
order 2 (1, 4.4) 1.5 (1, 3.5)
TP53- & AR- count 243 196 5 5
time_stop 15 (7, 29) 20 (12, 32) 17 (13, 23) 14 (12, 15)
n_trt 34 (25, 74) 37 (25, 69) 37 (30, 46) 34 (26, 35)
n_control 60 (30, 135) 88 (50, 156) 60 (51, 97) 58 (48, 64)
post_p 0.16 (0.05, 0.28) 0.17 (0.07, 0.27) 0.18 (0.12, 0.24) 0.18 (0.04, 0.27)
order 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 1.6) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 79 63
time_stop 20 (12, 33) 18 (10, 32)
n_trt 42 (27, 68) 42 (28, 76)
n_control 89 (47, 160) 89 (39, 170)
post_p 0.08 (0.03, 0.21) 0.1 (0.02, 0.23)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 3)
HRD+ count 107 123
time_stop 29 (23, 34) 28 (20, 34)
n_trt 29 (25, 43) 31 (25, 46)
n_control 83 (54, 109) 81 (52, 108)
post_p 0.1 (0.03, 0.25) 0.1 (0.01, 0.25)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
TEfus+ count 62 76
time_stop 22 (16, 34) 22 (12, 32)
n_trt 39 (26, 65) 39 (28, 67)
n_control 86 (54, 139) 88 (46, 132)
post_p 0.07 (0.02, 0.18) 0.06 (0.02, 0.18)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var —- —+ –+- –++ -+– -+-+ -++- -+++ +— +–+ +-+- +-++ ++– ++-+ +++- ++++
all ARSi count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8) 5 (4, 8)
n 16 (12, 22) 2 (1, 3) 8 (6, 14) 2 (2, 4) 0 (0, 4) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 0) 2 (0, 3) 2 (0, 2) 0 (0, 2) 1 (0, 1) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.62 (0.58, 0.75) 0.53 (0.51, 0.56) 0.61 (0.51, 0.8) 0.53 (0.52, 0.63) 0.55 (0.51, 0.57) 0.52 (0.52, 0.52) 0.55 (0.55, 0.55) NA (NA, NA) 0.57 (0.53, 0.65) 0.53 (0.52, 0.54) 0.52 (0.52, 0.53) 0.55 (0.54, 0.56) 0.55 (0.52, 0.57) NA (NA, NA) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.057 (0.035, 0.109) 0 (0, 0.043) 0.06 (0.026, 0.111) 0 (0, 0.056) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.214 (0.043, 0.386) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.06) 0.124 (0.025, 0.153) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6) 5 (5, 6)
n 5 (3, 6) 1 (0, 3) 6 (3, 6) 7 (7, 9) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 4 (2, 6) 3 (1, 3) 4 (2, 5) 1 (0, 3) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 1) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.56 (0.51, 0.68) 0.54 (0.53, 0.55) 0.58 (0.56, 0.67) 0.58 (0.57, 0.88) NA (NA, NA) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0.56 (0.52, 0.58) 0.54 (0.52, 0.57) 0.53 (0.52, 0.58) 0.56 (0.54, 0.58) 0.55 (0.55, 0.55) 0.54 (0.54, 0.54) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.085 (0.057, 0.136) 0.064 (0.013, 0.116) 0 (0, 0) 0.071 (0.061, 0.094) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA) NA (NA, NA) 0 (0, 0.081) 0.131 (0.096, 0.166) 0.144 (0.029, 0.164) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA)
Platinum_CT count 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
time 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27) 7 (6, 27)
n 5 (2, 24) 1 (0, 4) 7 (3, 15) 2 (1, 14) 3 (2, 6) 3 (1, 10) 2 (0, 5) 1 (0, 5) 1 (0, 9) 2 (0, 5) 1 (0, 4) 1 (0, 5) 2 (1, 5) 1 (0, 5) 2 (0, 6) 2 (1, 5)
post_p 0.61 (0.54, 0.87) 0.61 (0.52, 0.79) 0.59 (0.52, 0.69) 0.58 (0.52, 0.77) 0.55 (0.52, 0.85) 0.58 (0.52, 0.81) 0.54 (0.52, 0.62) 0.54 (0.51, 0.64) 0.55 (0.5, 0.76) 0.6 (0.53, 0.86) 0.59 (0.52, 0.72) 0.53 (0.51, 0.6) 0.55 (0.52, 0.7) 0.56 (0.51, 0.72) 0.58 (0.51, 0.81) 0.56 (0.51, 0.78)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0 (0, 0.103) 0 (0, 0.064) 0.074 (0, 0.113) 0 (0, 0.093) 0 (0, 0.029) 0 (0, 0.052) 0 (0, 0.059) 0 (0, 0.053) 0.058 (0, 0.215) 0 (0, 0.089) 0 (0, 0.047) 0 (0, 0.134) 0 (0, 0.037) 0 (0, 0.047) 0 (0, 0.076) 0 (0, 0.043)
PARPi count 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
time 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33) 8 (5, 33)
n 6 (2, 23) 1 (0, 4) 7 (3, 29) 2 (0, 19) 4 (2, 6) 5 (1, 7) 1 (0, 10) 2 (1, 12) 1 (0, 12) 1 (0, 5) 1 (0, 12) 2 (0, 11) 2 (0, 10) 3 (1, 8) 2 (0, 8) 3 (0, 9)
post_p 0.56 (0.52, 0.87) 0.55 (0.52, 0.66) 0.66 (0.55, 0.78) 0.56 (0.52, 0.74) 0.55 (0.51, 0.75) 0.57 (0.51, 0.92) 0.54 (0.51, 0.82) 0.54 (0.52, 0.8) 0.61 (0.53, 0.79) 0.54 (0.52, 0.7) 0.61 (0.52, 0.72) 0.55 (0.51, 0.62) 0.6 (0.53, 0.91) 0.53 (0.51, 0.86) 0.56 (0.51, 0.86) 0.55 (0.51, 0.64)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0 (0, 0.158) 0 (0, 0.099) 0 (0, 0.112) 0 (0, 0.11) 0 (0, 0.064) 0 (0, 0.077) 0 (0, 0.041) 0 (0, 0.049) 0 (0, 0.077) 0.025 (0, 0.128) 0 (0, 0.081) 0.084 (0, 0.111) 0 (0, 0.075) 0 (0, 0.079) 0 (0, 0.048) 0.02 (0, 0.082)
TP53- & AR- ARSi count 30 30 30 30
time 10 (7, 15) 10 (7, 15) 10 (7, 15) 10 (7, 15)
n 26 (19, 34) 3 (2, 5) 1 (0, 3) 2 (0, 4)
post_p 0.85 (0.74, 0.93) 0.63 (0.52, 0.72) 0.57 (0.52, 0.62) 0.55 (0.51, 0.62)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.074 (0.054, 0.093) 0.044 (0, 0.104) 0 (0, 0.042) 0 (0, 0.06)
Taxane_CT count 13 13 13 13
time 12 (9, 16) 12 (9, 16) 12 (9, 16) 12 (9, 16)
n 24 (17, 31) 4 (1, 5) 3 (0, 6) 2 (0, 5)
post_p 0.84 (0.75, 0.92) 0.59 (0.51, 0.75) 0.56 (0.52, 0.73) 0.56 (0.54, 0.7)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.064 (0.036, 0.088) 0.039 (0, 0.081) 0 (0, 0.059) 0 (0, 0.087)
Platinum_CT count 116 116 116 116
time 18 (12, 32) 18 (12, 32) 18 (12, 32) 18 (12, 32)
n 22 (14, 54) 5 (1, 12) 6 (3, 14) 6 (3, 14)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.9) 0.64 (0.51, 0.88) 0.74 (0.54, 0.98) 0.74 (0.54, 0.95)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.086 (0.051, 0.106) 0.076 (0, 0.116) 0.024 (0, 0.072) 0.031 (0, 0.062)
PARPi count 121 121 121 121
time 21 (12, 33) 21 (12, 33) 21 (12, 33) 21 (12, 33)
n 27 (14, 64) 5 (2, 13) 8 (3, 16) 8 (3, 17)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.91) 0.64 (0.52, 0.85) 0.78 (0.54, 0.97) 0.78 (0.55, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.089 (0.059, 0.108) 0.076 (0, 0.115) 0.03 (0, 0.061) 0.028 (0, 0.057)
TP53+ ARSi count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
time 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10) 10 (9, 10)
n 14 (11, 21) 4 (3, 7) 2 (1, 2) 1 (0, 2) 2 (2, 4) 2 (0, 3) 1 (0, 2) 2 (0, 2)
post_p 0.78 (0.73, 0.9) 0.63 (0.53, 0.77) 0.54 (0.51, 0.62) 0.53 (0.51, 0.58) 0.54 (0.51, 0.63) 0.56 (0.52, 0.62) 0.52 (0.51, 0.56) 0.56 (0.54, 0.6)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.058 (0.049, 0.094) 0.072 (0.028, 0.122) 0 (0, 0.118) 0 (0, 0) 0.086 (0, 0.176) 0 (0, 0.129) 0 (0, 0.165) 0 (0, 0)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13) 8 (7, 13)
n 12 (6, 12) 11 (7, 12) 0 (0, 2) 1 (0, 3) 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 1 (0, 2) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.71 (0.66, 0.74) 0.75 (0.71, 0.81) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.54 (0.52, 0.56) 0.55 (0.52, 0.58) 0.58 (0.53, 0.77) 0.51 (0.5, 0.52) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.051 (0.047, 0.082) 0.058 (0.012, 0.098) 0 (0, 0) 0.034 (0.007, 0.061) 0.017 (0.003, 0.03) 0 (0, 0.037) 0.054 (0.011, 0.097) NA (NA, NA)
Platinum_CT count 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
time 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23) 14 (10, 23)
n 12 (6, 21) 6 (3, 13) 3 (1, 5) 4 (2, 8) 3 (0, 5) 2 (1, 5) 4 (2, 6) 3 (1, 5)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.97) 0.72 (0.64, 0.81) 0.58 (0.52, 0.8) 0.66 (0.54, 0.75) 0.58 (0.51, 0.75) 0.59 (0.51, 0.78) 0.64 (0.56, 0.8) 0.56 (0.52, 0.71)
r_prob 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.071 (0.028, 0.101) 0.05 (0, 0.105) 0 (0, 0.061) 0.009 (0, 0.056) 0.076 (0, 0.125) 0.059 (0, 0.119) 0.029 (0, 0.059) 0.026 (0, 0.063)
PARPi count 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
time 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25) 13 (10, 25)
n 12 (7, 23) 5 (2, 12) 3 (1, 5) 3 (2, 6) 2 (1, 5) 2 (0, 4) 4 (1, 5) 4 (1, 5)
post_p 0.8 (0.7, 0.9) 0.73 (0.52, 0.83) 0.59 (0.51, 0.73) 0.61 (0.51, 0.84) 0.61 (0.54, 0.74) 0.57 (0.51, 0.84) 0.6 (0.52, 0.81) 0.58 (0.52, 0.69)
r_prob 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.067 (0.037, 0.097) 0.061 (0, 0.101) 0.023 (0, 0.09) 0 (0, 0.046) 0.019 (0, 0.119) 0.069 (0, 0.138) 0.018 (0, 0.052) 0 (0, 0.051)
HRD+ Platinum_CT count 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247
time 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34) 23 (13, 34)
n 9 (4, 17) 9 (4, 17) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 12) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11)
post_p 0.81 (0.61, 0.98) 0.78 (0.58, 0.98) 0.73 (0.54, 0.92) 0.71 (0.54, 0.93) 0.72 (0.53, 0.92) 0.72 (0.54, 0.94) 0.72 (0.52, 0.92) 0.71 (0.54, 0.93)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.031 (0, 0.056) 0.035 (0, 0.064) 0.032 (0, 0.062) 0.028 (0, 0.073) 0.03 (0, 0.07) 0.03 (0, 0.062) 0.03 (0, 0.075) 0.027 (0, 0.07)
PARPi count 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 241
time 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35) 26 (13, 35)
n 9 (3, 19) 10 (3, 19) 6 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 11) 5 (2, 12) 5 (2, 12)
post_p 0.8 (0.6, 0.98) 0.84 (0.6, 0.99) 0.73 (0.54, 0.92) 0.75 (0.54, 0.95) 0.74 (0.53, 0.94) 0.73 (0.54, 0.94) 0.74 (0.54, 0.95) 0.76 (0.54, 0.95)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.033 (0, 0.064) 0.034 (0, 0.063) 0.028 (0, 0.062) 0.031 (0, 0.07) 0.029 (0, 0.075) 0.029 (0, 0.063) 0.03 (0, 0.066) 0.028 (0, 0.064)
TEfus+ Taxane_CT count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13) 12 (11, 13)
n 4 (3, 5) 14 (12, 16) 3 (2, 4) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 2) 2 (2, 3) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.57 (0.55, 0.59) 0.84 (0.8, 0.87) 0.53 (0.51, 0.55) 0.6 (0.55, 0.65) 0.59 (0.58, 0.59) 0.52 (0.5, 0.53) 0.55 (0.55, 0.55) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.073 (0.064, 0.081) 0.065 (0.051, 0.079) 0.059 (0.012, 0.105) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.039 (0.008, 0.07) 0.032 (0.006, 0.058) NA (NA, NA)
Platinum_CT count 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
time 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28) 17 (12, 28)
n 3 (1, 5) 8 (4, 15) 5 (4, 9) 3 (2, 7) 3 (1, 5) 4 (1, 7) 3 (1, 5) 4 (3, 9)
post_p 0.61 (0.54, 0.76) 0.78 (0.62, 0.87) 0.77 (0.53, 0.93) 0.6 (0.54, 0.81) 0.66 (0.51, 0.76) 0.63 (0.52, 0.9) 0.58 (0.52, 0.78) 0.63 (0.53, 0.9)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.057 (0, 0.11) 0.072 (0.027, 0.101) 0.034 (0.012, 0.068) 0.013 (0, 0.07) 0.047 (0, 0.112) 0.071 (0.016, 0.109) 0 (0, 0.052) 0.016 (0, 0.07)
PARPi count 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
time 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30) 16 (11, 30)
n 4 (2, 7) 9 (4, 25) 5 (2, 12) 3 (3, 8) 3 (2, 7) 3 (0, 8) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 5)
post_p 0.62 (0.52, 0.78) 0.75 (0.55, 0.91) 0.73 (0.56, 0.93) 0.66 (0.54, 0.84) 0.56 (0.53, 0.76) 0.58 (0.51, 0.79) 0.57 (0.54, 0.79) 0.58 (0.52, 0.84)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.073 (0, 0.096) 0.071 (0, 0.1) 0.024 (0, 0.044) 0 (0, 0.047) 0.081 (0, 0.132) 0.056 (0, 0.123) 0.022 (0, 0.073) 0.023 (0, 0.074)
Futility:
signature treatment var —- —+ –+- –++ -+– -+-+ -++- -+++ +— +–+ +-+- +-++ ++– ++-+ +++- ++++
all ARSi count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
time 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30) 14 (3, 30)
n 20 (9, 41) 2 (1, 5) 10 (6, 16) 4 (1, 10) 2 (0, 4) 2 (0, 5) 1 (0, 3) 2 (0, 3) 3 (0, 7) 2 (0, 5) 2 (0, 4) 2 (0, 6) 0 (0, 3) 2 (0, 4) 0 (0, 3) 1 (0, 4)
post_p 0.36 (0.08, 0.48) 0.42 (0.26, 0.48) 0.42 (0.09, 0.48) 0.35 (0.21, 0.48) 0.39 (0.32, 0.46) 0.38 (0.28, 0.46) 0.41 (0.3, 0.44) 0.39 (0.27, 0.46) 0.4 (0.23, 0.49) 0.42 (0.34, 0.47) 0.47 (0.35, 0.5) 0.43 (0.25, 0.48) 0.35 (0.23, 0.43) 0.42 (0.27, 0.48) 0.41 (0.35, 0.45) 0.42 (0.24, 0.5)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.137 (0.103, 0.244) 0.152 (0.097, 0.397) 0.128 (0.072, 0.249) 0.153 (0.119, 0.336) 0.182 (0.086, 0.424) 0.141 (0.099, 0.358) 0.176 (0, 0.437) 0.134 (0.086, 0.275) 0.163 (0.093, 0.512) 0.176 (0.114, 0.378) 0.104 (0, 0.267) 0.169 (0.127, 0.385) 0.286 (0.1, 1.281) 0.133 (0, 0.308) 0.714 (0.113, 4.647) 0.188 (0.098, 0.801)
Taxane_CT count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30) 9 (4, 30)
n 8 (4, 26) 4 (0, 12) 6 (2, 12) 10 (8, 14) 2 (0, 4) 2 (0, 5) 1 (0, 1) 0 (0, 1) 4 (2, 10) 4 (1, 7) 4 (2, 4) 2 (2, 4) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 4) 0 (0, 3) 0 (0, 2)
post_p 0.36 (0.26, 0.47) 0.44 (0.27, 0.47) 0.43 (0.25, 0.47) 0.41 (0.17, 0.49) 0.3 (0.13, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.38) 0.35 (0.35, 0.47) 0.4 (0.34, 0.45) 0.42 (0.26, 0.48) 0.46 (0.28, 0.47) 0.4 (0.3, 0.46) 0.46 (0.38, 0.48) 0.39 (0.39, 0.43) 0.35 (0.23, 0.46) 0.37 (0.12, 0.46) 0.39 (0.31, 0.48)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.12 (0.106, 0.305) 0.122 (0.088, 0.275) 0.14 (0.103, 0.251) 0.138 (0.088, 0.219) 0.243 (0.183, 1.153) 0.22 (0.129, 0.274) 0.517 (0.105, 1.094) 1.009 (0.522, 1.496) 0.149 (0.064, 0.211) 0.165 (0.093, 0.213) 0.209 (0.156, 0.294) 0.136 (0.026, 1.099) 0.184 (0.147, 1.928) 0.094 (0.066, 0.122) 0.257 (0.158, 0.361) 0.286 (0.057, 0.516)
TP53- & AR- ARSi count 243 243 243 243
time 15 (7, 29) 15 (7, 29) 15 (7, 29) 15 (7, 29)
n 22 (16, 54) 5 (2, 10) 3 (1, 7) 3 (0, 6)
post_p 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.4 (0.21, 0.48) 0.4 (0.2, 0.48) 0.41 (0.27, 0.48)
r_prob 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.13 (0.103, 0.178) 0.156 (0.09, 0.369) 0.145 (0.074, 0.489) 0.144 (0.07, 0.427)
Taxane_CT count 196 196 196 196
time 20 (12, 32) 20 (12, 32) 20 (12, 32) 20 (12, 32)
n 22 (10, 50) 5 (3, 12) 4 (2, 8) 4 (1, 8)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.38 (0.2, 0.48) 0.37 (0.19, 0.48) 0.38 (0.19, 0.47)
r_prob 0.11 (0.11, 0.11) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.129 (0.106, 0.194) 0.149 (0.094, 0.266) 0.143 (0.087, 0.321) 0.143 (0.082, 0.451)
Platinum_CT count 5 5 5 5
time 17 (13, 23) 17 (13, 23) 17 (13, 23) 17 (13, 23)
n 27 (14, 35) 3 (2, 5) 5 (3, 6) 3 (2, 6)
post_p 0.26 (0.16, 0.44) 0.43 (0.28, 0.48) 0.4 (0.38, 0.46) 0.34 (0.23, 0.42)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.118 (0.113, 0.22) 0.152 (0.09, 0.401) 0.073 (0.052, 0.138) 0.165 (0.135, 0.281)
PARPi count 5 5 5 5
time 14 (12, 15) 14 (12, 15) 14 (12, 15) 14 (12, 15)
n 20 (16, 23) 3 (1, 3) 5 (3, 7) 5 (0, 7)
post_p 0.22 (0.1, 0.35) 0.27 (0.22, 0.38) 0.48 (0.39, 0.49) 0.44 (0.42, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
rate 0.138 (0.117, 0.197) 0.722 (0.295, 28.445) 0.078 (0.055, 0.152) 0.096 (0.075, 0.113)
TP53+ ARSi count 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
time 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33) 20 (12, 33)
n 14 (7, 28) 8 (4, 20) 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 4 (2, 8) 3 (1, 7) 2 (0, 6) 3 (0, 6)
post_p 0.34 (0.09, 0.46) 0.34 (0.14, 0.46) 0.37 (0.24, 0.46) 0.43 (0.29, 0.48) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49) 0.38 (0.26, 0.48) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.4 (0.23, 0.48)
r_prob 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.135 (0.106, 0.259) 0.142 (0.109, 0.235) 0.17 (0.077, 0.509) 0.179 (0.061, 0.414) 0.181 (0.104, 0.414) 0.167 (0.108, 0.427) 0.171 (0.094, 0.789) 0.157 (0.087, 0.588)
Taxane_CT count 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
time 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32) 18 (10, 32)
n 12 (6, 29) 11 (5, 21) 2 (0, 6) 2 (0, 5) 4 (2, 9) 4 (2, 10) 2 (0, 6) 2 (0, 6)
post_p 0.33 (0.13, 0.48) 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.41 (0.26, 0.48) 0.38 (0.21, 0.48) 0.38 (0.22, 0.48) 0.42 (0.22, 0.48) 0.41 (0.24, 0.48) 0.41 (0.29, 0.48)
r_prob 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.139 (0.103, 0.235) 0.136 (0.101, 0.276) 0.133 (0.073, 0.644) 0.162 (0.069, 0.672) 0.159 (0.108, 0.399) 0.164 (0.097, 0.334) 0.174 (0.091, 0.454) 0.163 (0.066, 1.401)
HRD+ ARSi count 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107
time 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34) 29 (23, 34)
n 4 (1, 9) 4 (1, 9) 4 (1, 6) 4 (1, 7) 4 (1, 7) 3 (2, 7) 3 (1, 6) 4 (1, 7)
post_p 0.29 (0.16, 0.45) 0.32 (0.16, 0.45) 0.33 (0.17, 0.45) 0.38 (0.19, 0.48) 0.34 (0.17, 0.47) 0.34 (0.19, 0.47) 0.34 (0.2, 0.46) 0.37 (0.15, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.151 (0.089, 0.48) 0.145 (0.09, 0.507) 0.164 (0.088, 0.356) 0.144 (0.076, 0.3) 0.157 (0.08, 0.374) 0.159 (0.092, 0.434) 0.163 (0.088, 0.719) 0.149 (0.086, 0.437)
Taxane_CT count 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123
time 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34) 28 (20, 34)
n 4 (2, 10) 5 (2, 11) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 7) 4 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 7)
post_p 0.3 (0.14, 0.45) 0.33 (0.14, 0.47) 0.36 (0.2, 0.46) 0.36 (0.21, 0.48) 0.36 (0.19, 0.48) 0.37 (0.19, 0.46) 0.34 (0.22, 0.48) 0.34 (0.22, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.147 (0.09, 0.334) 0.127 (0.083, 0.338) 0.149 (0.084, 0.349) 0.153 (0.085, 0.45) 0.129 (0.074, 0.464) 0.16 (0.08, 0.509) 0.182 (0.079, 0.615) 0.142 (0.087, 0.403)
TEfus+ ARSi count 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62
time 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34) 22 (16, 34)
n 6 (2, 12) 11 (4, 27) 3 (0, 7) 3 (1, 7) 4 (2, 8) 4 (2, 9) 2 (0, 6) 3 (1, 6)
post_p 0.38 (0.19, 0.47) 0.3 (0.14, 0.46) 0.37 (0.17, 0.45) 0.37 (0.22, 0.48) 0.39 (0.22, 0.48) 0.39 (0.22, 0.48) 0.36 (0.18, 0.45) 0.4 (0.2, 0.48)
r_prob 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.15 (0.096, 0.383) 0.139 (0.109, 0.234) 0.141 (0.085, 0.264) 0.158 (0.073, 0.403) 0.151 (0.108, 0.446) 0.163 (0.09, 0.409) 0.163 (0.082, 0.472) 0.138 (0.083, 0.348)
Taxane_CT count 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
time 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32) 22 (12, 32)
n 5 (2, 12) 11 (6, 21) 4 (1, 10) 3 (0, 5) 5 (2, 9) 5 (2, 11) 3 (0, 5) 2 (0, 6)
post_p 0.36 (0.18, 0.47) 0.36 (0.13, 0.48) 0.37 (0.17, 0.46) 0.38 (0.22, 0.49) 0.36 (0.21, 0.47) 0.38 (0.21, 0.48) 0.38 (0.22, 0.48) 0.39 (0.26, 0.48)
r_prob 0.29 (0.29, 0.29) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.161 (0.104, 0.336) 0.134 (0.104, 0.232) 0.146 (0.094, 0.446) 0.166 (0.065, 0.642) 0.175 (0.092, 0.463) 0.157 (0.097, 0.325) 0.172 (0.074, 0.471) 0.165 (0.091, 0.523)